티스토리 뷰
An American CEO sends an e-mail to his top lieutenants
To our management team 1: When I left the White House yesterday, after another two-hour round-table 2 with the president, I knew in my gut that 3 it was time to put in place "plan C" for this great company. The boxer, Mike Tyson, had a point when he said "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." But so did Winston Churchill when he observed that "plans are of little importance 4, but planning is essential." We owe it to our investors, customers and 131,000 employees globally 5, to have a rest.
A year ago we were pursuing plan A. We expected that Hillary Clinton would win the election and that American business would continue as it has since the subprime crisis 6, meaning slow growth and lots of red tape but open borders and record profits that we could return to shareholders as dividends and buy-backs. Together, our firm and fellow members of the S&P 500 index 7have been paying out $1trn a year, far more than we invest.
After November 8th, we switched to plan B. For a few months it seemed a Republican-run Congress and White House might deliver sweeping 8 deregulation 9 10 and tax reforms to set the economy free 11, just as in the Reagan era. We dusted off plans to raise investment by a fifth 12and boost hiring at home 13. Like most firms we loaded the gun but didn't pull the trigger 14. That was a hell of a great call 15.
It is now clear that dysfunction at 16 the White House and in Congress means plan B is off the table 17. The markets agree. Sure, equity prices are still up 18. But after the election, bond yields soared in anticipation of 19 an economic boom 20 21, only to give up half of their gains. The "Trump Bump" has faded. Yet life won't return to normal. Our firm faces many risks. We have to fight back 22.
That calls for 23 plan C, which has three elements 24: winning, tackling 25 and the future. I like to use the acronym 26 "WTF". For a start 27 we have to win profits from our proximity to power 28. I sit on the president's CEO advisory board 29and he has me on speed dial to 30 talk about trade deals and his regulatory appointments 31. We toasted with 32 Diet Coke on Air Force One 33 after we visited Saudi Arabia in May. Our firm secured a contract worth $6bn for a desalination plant 34 in 35Jeddah and a licence to operate a bank in the kingdom. These two wins will lift our profits by 36 14% a year by 2020.
A bonfire of obsolete laws 37 by Congress 38 is unlikely 39. But as one of my friends in the White House texted me yesterday, "people are policy". We can still win in other ways. Business-friendly folk 40 41 are newly in charge of the regulatory bodies for telecoms 42, the environment and the stockmarket 43. Candidate Trump grumbled about monopolies 44 45 such as AT&T and Amazon, but now he is in office he has lost interest. I like it when that happens.
But plan C also requires us to recognize new dangers coming at us hard 46and fast. They need to be tackled - stopped and brought down. One of the Wall Street bankers I know likes to say that the president has three personalities: chairman, showman 47and con man 48. It is the last two we need to worry about.
Our PR team is ready to tackle any 4am presidential Twitter tirade about 49 betraying American workers. We will avoid responding directly on Twitter, but will rebut him on 50Facebook and in e-mails to staff and the media. Our executives must have patriotic sound-bites on the tips of their tongues 51: for example, 52% of our staff are 52 in America and we invest $5bn each year here. Repeat it.
We must also confront the risk of getting entangled 53 in 54 the investigations surrounding the White House. Today I am imposing a ban on any commercial interaction between our firm and the president's business or the entrepreneurial folks 55 in his entourage 56. This includes lending cash to 57 the Trump Organization, which has at least five loans and bonds 58 maturing 59 in the next four years 60.
We must be ready to tackle any consequences of a trade war breaking out with 61 62 China or Germany, or a collapse of 63 NAFTA, with contingency plans 64 for our global supply chains 65. We have secured facilities in 66 Pennsylvania (a swing state for the president so he would like this), where some 67Mexican production can be moved. Any spare capacity 68 would go to growing Asian economies. The one-off cost 69 would be $500m - high but manageable 70.
Having POTUS-proofed 71 our company, that leaves the last letter of the WTF acronym: the future of our business in America. Corporate taxes 72 may fall, but not by much 73. The president is targeting a rate of 15% but most of us on the CEO advisory council 74 think 28% is as low as it will go, based on the fiscal outlook 75 76and the president's weakness in Congress. Since our firm, like the aggregate of 77 the S&P 500, pays a cash tax rate of 23%, this won't make a difference.
We expect the taxation of foreign profits 78 to be simplified under 79 the administration 80, so we can repatriate 81the $51bn we parked abroad without paying a large levy 82 (by the way we are not alone - the total for S&P 500 firms is over $1trn). But with a slow economy 83, politics unpredictable and digital predators such as Amazon breathing down our necks in some product areas, I 84have zero appetite to spend it 85 on new American factories. We'll use it for more buy-backs 86, new software or foreign expansion.
West-winging it
I'll be frank. Plan C envisions 87 three and a half years of America going nowhere 88. The odds of 89recession are one in three. If the economy stalls 90, it will be hard for President Trump to be reelected 91. Which brings me to my final point 92. America has broken a taboo by electing a business figure to the White House. By 2020, perhaps voters will be hungry for 93 a "competence candidate" 94. Someone who really has run a big empire. Someone like me.
Mark Zuckerberg and Howard Schultz from Starbucks are already touring the country 95, running exploratory campaigns 96. Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan Chase tells me he won't run, but I don't believe him. None of them can match my leadership record 97. By 2020 one of you deserves a chance to run this great company and I will seek the chance to serve America, the greatest turnaround opportunity 98 on Earth. Keep it to yourselves for now 99 100 - but the C in our new plan stands for candidate 101.
- management team ; [명사] 관리팀 [본문으로]
- round-table ; [명사] 원탁, 둥근 탁자; 원탁 회의[토의]; 원탁 회의 참가자. [본문으로]
- gut ; 5. [C] [주로 복수로] 직감 [본문으로]
- importance ; [U] 중요성 [본문으로]
- globally ; [부사] 전세계적으로 [본문으로]
- subprime crisis ; A situation starting in 2008 affecting the mortgage industry due to borrowers being approved for loans they could not afford. As a result, a significant rise in foreclosures led to the collapse of many lending institutions and hedge funds. The financial crisis in the mortgage industry also affected the global credit market resulting in higher interest rates and reduced availability of credit. [본문으로]
- S&P 500 ; [명사] 스탠더드 앤드 푸어스 500 종 평균 주가 지수(S&P 500 (Average) Index의 약어). [본문으로]
- deliver ; 3. KEEP PROMISE | ~ (on sth) (약속을) 지키다; (사람들의 기대대로 결과를) 내놓다[산출하다] [본문으로]
- sweeping ; 1. [주로 명사 앞에 씀] 전면적인 [본문으로]
- deregulation ; [명사] (인허가 따위 정부의) 규제 완화[철폐], 자유화, 규제 해제. [본문으로]
- tax reform ; 세제 개혁 [본문으로]
- dust off ; [동사] (다시 쓰기 위해) 방치했던 물건을 오랜만에 꺼내다; (야구 투수가) 빈볼을 던지다; 때려 눕히다. [본문으로]
- at home ; 흐름상 "국내에서, 국내의" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- didn't pull the trigger ; 흐름상 "계획은 있었으나 실천으로 옮기지는 않았다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- a hell of a great call ; "정말 좋은 생각이었다", "정말 잘 한 일이었다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- dysfunction ; [UC] [병리] 기능 장애; [사회] 역기능 [본문으로]
- be off the table ; If sth is "off the table", there will be no more discussions about it. [본문으로]
- equity price ; 주식 가격, 주가 [본문으로]
- bond yields ; 채권이득, 채권수익률 [본문으로]
- in anticipation of ; …을 예상하고, 내다보고 [본문으로]
- economic boom ; (경제) 경기번영, 경제 활성 [본문으로]
- fight back ; (공격에) 강력히 맞서다[반격하다] [본문으로]
- call for ; 필요로 하다, 찾다, 촉구하다 [본문으로]
- element ; 1. PART/AMOUNT | [C] ~ (in/of sth) 요소, 성분 [본문으로]
- tackle ; 1. [타동사][VN] (힘든 문제・상황과) 씨름하다 [본문으로]
- acronym ; [명사] 두문자어(acquired immune deficiency syndrome (후천성 면역 결핍증)을 나타내는 AIDS처럼 단어의 머리글자로 만든 말) [본문으로]
- for a start ; 우선[먼저] [본문으로]
- proximity ; [U] ~ (of sb/sth) (to sb/sth) (격식) (거리・시간상으로) 가까움[근접] [본문으로]
- advisory board ; [명사] 자문 위원회 [본문으로]
- speed dial ; (전화의) 단축 다이얼[번호] [본문으로]
- regulatory appointment ; 흐름상 "주요 단속, 규제 기관장에 대한 임명" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- toast ; [자동사] 건배하다 [본문으로]
- Air Force One ; [명사] 에어 포스 원(미국 대통령 전용기) [본문으로]
- secure a contract ; 계약을 따내다, 확보하다, 성사시키다 [본문으로]
- desalination plant ; 담수 공장, (원자력용어) 담수처리공장(淡水處理工場) [본문으로]
- lift ; 10. INCREASE | (양・수준을) 올리다, 인상하다; 올라가다, 인상되다 [본문으로]
- obsolete ; [형용사] 더 이상 쓸모가 없는, 한물간, 구식의 ;; US [|ɑ:bsə|li:t] UK [|ɒbsəli:t] [본문으로]
- make a bonfire of ; [쓰레기 따위]를 태워버리다 ;; 흐름상 "쓸모없는 법들을 없애버리는 것" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- unlikely ; (un・like・lier , un・likeli・est), (more unlikely와 most unlikely가 흔히 쓰인다.) 1. ~ (to do sth) | ~ (that…) …할[일] 것 같지 않은, 있음직하지[있을 것 같지] 않은 [본문으로]
- business-friendly ; favoring or conducive to business concerns or interests [본문으로]
- folk ; 1. [pl.] (folks 특히 美) (또한 비격식) (일반적인) 사람들 ;; 영국에서는 s 없이 folk로 쓰고 복수 동사로 받음 [본문으로]
- regulatory body ; 규제 기관 [본문으로]
- stock market ; [명사] 증권 거래업; 주식 시장, 증권 거래소 [본문으로]
- grumble about[at] ; …에 대해 투덜대다. [본문으로]
- monopoly ; (pl. -ies) 1. ~ (in/of/on sth) (상업) (생산・시장의) 독점, 전매; 독점[전매] 상품[서비스] ;; 참고 duopoly [본문으로]
- come at ; (수동태로는 안 씀) (공격하듯이) ~에게 달려들다[덤벼들다], …에게 덤벼들다(=attack). [본문으로]
- showman ; (pl. -men / -mən /) 1. 쇼맨(사람들의 이목을 끌고 그들을 즐겁게 하는 재능이 있는 사람) 2. (특히 지역 축제 같은) 대중오락 행사 기획자 [본문으로]
- con man ; [명사] (비격식) 사기꾼, 협잡꾼 [본문으로]
- tirade ; [명사] ~ (against sb/sth) 장황한 비난, 장광설 ;; US [|taɪreɪd] UK [taɪ|reɪd] [본문으로]
- rebut ; [동사] -tt- (격식) 논박[반박]하다 [본문으로]
- soundbite ; [명사] 인상적인 한마디, 짧은 코멘트(화제 인물의 짤막한 육성 발언이나 연설, 성명의 한 구절. 방송, 특히 뉴스 프로에 인용 삽입됨). [본문으로]
- 영국에서는 집합 명사(collective nouns)라 판단되는 단어는 s가 없어도 복수로 받는 경우가 많다.;; Grammar Section - staff do / staff does 게시물 참조 [본문으로]
- confront ; 2. (문제나 곤란한 상황에) 맞서다 [본문으로]
- entangled ; 얼기설기 얽힌 [본문으로]
- 앞에서는 s 없이 folk라고 복수로 받고서, 여기는 또 folks 로 쓴 이유는 ?? [본문으로]
- entourage ; [명사] (주요 인물의) 수행단 ;; US [|ɑ:nturɑ:Ʒ] UK [|ɒnturɑ:Ʒ] [본문으로]
- lend ;2. ~ sth (to sb) | ~ (sb) sth (은행・금융기관에서) (돈을) 빌려주다, 대출하다 ;; 참고 borrow [본문으로]
- loan ; 1. [C] 대출[융자](금) [본문으로]
- bond ; 2. MONEY | [C] 채권 ;; 참고 junk bond [본문으로]
- mature ; 5. INSURANCE POLICY | [자동사][V] (상업) (보험이) 만기가 되다 [본문으로]
- tackle ; 2. [타동사][VN] ~ sb (about sth) (문제・힘든 상황에 대해) 솔직하게 말하다[따지다] [본문으로]
- break out ; 발발[발생]하다 [본문으로]
- collapse ; 1. FAILURE | [C , U] [주로 단수로] (제도・사업 등의 갑작스런) 실패[붕괴] [본문으로]
- contingency plan ; 긴급 사태 대책(emergency plan), (불의의 사태에 대비한) 사전 대책 [본문으로]
- supply chain ; [명사] (주로 단수로) (상업) (상품의) 연쇄적인 생산 및 공급 과정 [본문으로]
- secure ; 1. GET STH | ~ sth (for sb/sth) | ~ sb sth (격식) (특히 힘들게) 얻어 내다, 획득[확보]하다 [본문으로]
- swing state ; [명사] (대선 때마다 민주·공화 양당 지지를 오가는) 그네뛰기하는 주(州). [본문으로]
- spare capacity ; (경제) 유휴생산능력 [본문으로]
- one-off cost ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) (美 |one-shot) 단 한 번의 ;; 참고 one-off payment ; 일시불 [본문으로]
- manageable ; [형용사] 관리[감당/처리]할 수 있는 [본문으로]
- POTUS ; [명사] President of the United States, 미국 대통령을 일컫는 약자 [본문으로]
- corporate tax ; [명사] 법인세 [본문으로]
- by much ; 대단히, 훨씬 [본문으로]
- advisory council ; [명사] 자문위원회 [본문으로]
- fiscal ; [형용사] 국가 재정[세제]의 ;; 참고 procurator fiscal [본문으로]
- outlook ; 2. ~ (for sth) (앞날에 대한) 전망 [본문으로]
- aggregate ; 1. [C] 합계, 총액 ;; Noun [|ӕgrɪgət] Adjective [|ӕgrɪgət] Verb [|ӕgrɪgeɪt] [본문으로]
- taxation ; [U] 1. 조세, 세수 2. 과세제도, 세제 [본문으로]
- foreign profits ; 국외 소득 [본문으로]
- simplify ; [타동사][VN] (sim・pli・fies , sim・pli・fy・ing , sim・pli・fied , sim・pli・fied) 간소화[단순화]하다, 간단[평이]하게 하다 [본문으로]
- repatriate ; 2. (상업) (돈・수익을) 본국으로 송금하다 [본문으로]
- levy ; [명사] pl. -ies ~ (on sth) (특히 세금의) 추가 부담금 ;; US·UK [|levi] [본문으로]
- slow economy ; 불경기, 경기 침체 [본문으로]
- breath down sb's neck ; to stay close to someone, watching everything that they do: [본문으로]
- appetite ; 2. [C] ~ (for sth) 욕구 [본문으로]
- buy-back ; 자사주 매입 [본문으로]
- envision ; [동사] (특히 앞으로 바라는 일을) 마음속에 그리다[상상하다] [본문으로]
- go[get] nowhere ; 아무 성과[진전]를 못 보다/~에게 아무런 성과[진전]를 못 보게 하다 [본문으로]
- odds ; [pl.], (참고: stacked) 1. 보통 the odds (어떤 일이 있을) 공산[가능성] [본문으로]
- stall ; 4. 교착 상태에 빠뜨리다, 지연시키다; 교착 상태에 빠지다, 지연되다 [본문으로]
- reelect ; [타동사] 재선하다 [본문으로]
- which brings me to the (main) point ; a transitional phrase that introduces the main point of a discussion [본문으로]
- be hungry for ; ~을 갈망하다 [본문으로]
- competence ; 1. [U , C] (드물게 com・pe・ten・cy) ~ (in sth) | ~ (in doing sth) 능숙함, 능숙도 [본문으로]
- tour ; [동사] 순회[순방]하다; 관광하다 [본문으로]
- exploratory ; [형용사] 탐사의; 탐구의 [본문으로]
- match ; 4. BE EQUAL/BETTER | [타동사][VN] 맞먹다, 필적[대등]하다 [본문으로]
- turnaround ; 3. (상황의) 호전(好轉) 4. (의견・행동 등의) 180도 전환 [본문으로]
- keep sth to yourself ; ~에 대해 혼자만 알고 있다[남에게 말하지 않다] [본문으로]
- for now ; 우선은, 현재로는, 당분간은 [본문으로]
- stand for candidate ; 흐름상 "선택할 수 있는 새로운 선택지가 될 수 있다, 추진할 수 있는 새로운 계획이 될수 있다" 정도의 의미로 보임 [본문으로]