The Brexit process heads for extra time

Parliament starts the process of seeking to extend the Brexit deadline beyond March 29th

A busy Brexit week in the House of Commons finished on March 14th with a series of votes on asking for more time. By a large majority of 412 to 202 votes, MPs agreed to authorize the government to ask the European Union for an extension of the Article 50 Brexit dealine beyond March 29th. Along the way the government for once narrowly fended off defeats on amendments to its motion. 

The tightest vote came on an amendment proposed by Hilary Benn, a former Labour minister who is now chairman of the Commons Brexit committee. This would have confirmed the extension request but added a provision for MPs to take control of the agenda on March 20th to begin holding a series of indicative votes on their preferred Brexit options. The amendment was defeated by just 314 to 312 votes. That victory may owe something to a government promise to hold just such indicative votes in April if Mrs May's deal still has not passed. 

She will have one more go on March 19th at getting MPs to vote for her deal. Having lost two votes on it by huge margins already, the odds must be that she will lose again. But some ardent Brexiteers and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionists are said to be looking for a ladder to climb down from their opposition to the deal. Even if she loses again, the margin of defeat will surely shrink, increasing the chances that it will pass eventually. 

This third vote on her deal will have a decisive influence on the response to Mrs May's request for an Article 50 extension, which will be considered at an EU summit on March 21st. The summit's assent cannot be taken for granted. If her deal loses again, EU leaders may argue that a short extension is pointless and prefer a longer one to create time for a deeper rethink of Brexit. If that means Britain having to participate in May's European elections, so be it. 

Mrs May would probably still prefer a short extension. A long one could mean she loses any control of the Brexit debate in Westminster. Tory Brexiteers could use this as an argument for her to step down and be replaced as leader. And a long delay will also encourage those arguing for a second referendum. An amendment proposing such a public vote was decisively defeated this time round because Labour said it would not back the idea at this stage. But during a long Article 50 extension demands for another consultation of the voters will only get louder.