[Annotated] Why Trumponomics won't make America great again

The impulsiveness^[각주:1] and shallowness^[각주:2] of America's president threaten the economy as well as the rule of law

Donald Trump rules over^[각주:3] Washington as if he were a king and the White house his court^[각주:4]. His displays of dominance^[각주:5], his need to be the center of attention^[각주:6] and his impetuousness^[각주:7] have a whiff of^[각주:8] Henry VIII about them. Fortified by his belief^[각주:9] that his extraordinary route to power is proof of the collective^[각주:10] mediocrity^[각주:11] of Congress, the bureaucracy and the media, he attacks any person and any idea standing in his way^[각주:12].

Just how much trouble that can cause was on sensational display this week, with his sacking of^[각주:13] James Comey - only the second director of the FBI to have been kicked out^[각주:14]. Mr Comey has made mistakes and Mr Trump was within his rights^[각주:15]. But the president has succeeded only in drawing attention to questions^[각주:16] about his links to^[각주:17] Russia and his contempt for^[각주:18] the norms^[각주:19] designed to hold would-be^[각주:20] kings in check^[각주:21].

Just as dangerous, and no less important to^[각주:22] ordinary Americans, however, is Mr Trump's plan for the economy. It treats orthodoxy^[각주:23], accuracy^[각주:24] and consistency^[각주:25] as if they were simply to be negotiated away in a series of^[각주:26] earth-shattering^[각주:27] deals. Although Trumponomics could stoke^[각주:28] a mini-boom, it, too, poses dangers to^[각주:29] America and the world.

Trumponomics 101

In an interview with this newspaper, the president gave his most extensive^[각주:30] description yet of what he wants for the economy. His target is to ensure that more Americans have well-paid jobs by raising the growth rate^[각주:31]. His advisers talk of^[각주:32] 3% GDP growth - a full percentage point^[각주:33] higher than what most economists believe is today's sustainable^[각주:34] pace^[각주:35]. 

In Mr Trump's mind the most important path to better jobs and faster growth is through fairer trade deals. Though he claims he is a free-trader^[각주:36], provided the rules are fair, his outlook^[각주:37] is squarely^[각주:38] that of an economic nationalist. Trade is fair when trade flows^[각주:39] are balanced^[각주:40]. Firms should be rewarded for^[각주:41] investing at home and punished for investing abroad.

The second and third strands of^[각주:42] Trumponomics, tax cuts^[각주:43] and deregulation^[각주:44], will encourage that domestic investment^[각주:45]. Lower taxes and fewer rules will fire up^[각주:46] entrepreneurs, leading to faster growth and better jobs. This is standard^[각주:47] supply-side economics^[각주:48], but to see Trumponomics as a rehash of^[각주:49] Republican orthodoxy is a mistake - and not only because its economic nationalism is a departure for^[각주:50] a party that has championed^[각주:51] free trade.

The real difference is that Trumponomics (unlike, say, Reaganomics^[각주:52]) is not an economic doctrine^[각주:53] at all. It is best seen as^[각주:54] a set of proposals put together by^[각주:55] businessmen courtiers^[각주:56] for their king. Mr Trump has listened to scores of^[각주:57] executives, but there are barely any economists in the White House. His approach to the economy is born of^[각주:58] a mindset where^[각주:59] deals have winners and losers and where canny^[각주:60] negotiators confound^[각주:61] abstract principles^[각주:62]. Call it boardroom^[각주:63] capitalism.

That Trumponomics is a business wishlist^[각주:64] helps explain why critics on^[각주:65] the left have laid into^[각주:66] its poor distributional consequences^[각주:67], fiscal indiscipline^[각주:68] and potential cronyism^[각주:69]. And it makes clear why businessmen and investors have been enthusiastic^[각주:70], seeing it as a shot in the arm for^[각주:71] those who take risks^[각주:72] and seek profits^[각주:73]. Stockmarkets are close to^[각주:74] record highs^[각주:75] and indices of^[각주:76] business confidence have soared^[각주:77]. 

In the short term^[각주:78] that confidence could prove^[각주:79] self-fulfilling^[각주:80]. America can bully^[각주:81] Canada and Mexico into renegotiating^[각주:82] NAFTA. For all their sermons^[각주:83] about fiscal prudence^[각주:84], Republicans in Congress are unlikely to deny Mr Trump a tax cut^[각주:85]. Stimulus^[각주:86] and rule-slashing^[각주:87] may lead to faster growth. And with inflation still quiescent^[각주:88], the Federal Reserve might not choke that growth^[각주:89] with sharply higher interest rates.

Unleashing^[각주:90] pent-up^[각주:91] energy would be welcome, but Mr Trump's agenda comes with two dangers. The economic assumptions implicit in^[각주:92] it are internally inconsistent^[각주:93]. And they are based on a picture of America's economy that is decades out of date^[각주:94].

Contrary to^[각주:95] the Trump team's assertions^[각주:96], there is little evidence that either the global trading system or individual trade deals have been systematically biased against^[각주:97] America. Instead, America's trade deficit^[각주:98] - Mr Trump's main gauge of^[각주:99] the unfairness of trade deals^[각주:100] - is better understood as the gap between how much Americans save and how much they invest. The fine print of^[각주:101] trade deals is all but^[각주:102] irrelevant. Textbooks predict that Mr Trump's plans to boost domestic investment^[각주:103] will probably lead to larger trade deficits, as it did in the Reagan boom of the 1980s. If so, Mr Trump will either need to abandon his measure of fair trade^[각주:104] or, more damagingly^[각주:105], try to curb^[각주:106] deficits by using protectionist^[각주:107] tariffs that will hurt growth and sow mistrust^[각주:108] around the world.

A deeper problem is that Trumponomics draws on^[각주:109] a blinkered^[각주:110] view of America's economy. Mr Trump and his advisers are obsessed with the effect of trade on manufacturing jobs^[각주:111], even though manufacturing employs only 8.5% of America's workers and accounts for only 12% of GDP. Service industries barely seem to register. This blinds^[각주:112] Trumponomics to today's biggest economic worry: the turbulence^[각주:113] being created by new technologies. Yet technology, not trade, is ravaging^[각주:114] American retailing^[각주:115], an industry that employs more people than manufacturing. And economic nationalism^[각주:116] will speed^[각주:117] automation^[각주:118]: firms unable to outsource^[각주:119] jobs to Mexico will stay competitive^[각주:120] by investing in machines at home^[각주:121]. Productivity and profits may rise, but this may not help the less-skilled^[각주:122] factory workers who Mr Trump claims are his priority.

The bite behind the bark

Trumponomics is a poor recipe for long-term prosperity^[각주:123]. America will end up more indebted^[각주:124] and more unequal. It will neglect^[각주:125] the real issues, such as how to retrain^[각주:126] hardworking^[각주:127] people whose skills are becoming redundant^[각주:128]. Worse, when the contradictions^[각주:129] become apparent, Mr Trump's economic nationalism may become fiercer, leading to backlashes^[각주:130] in other countries - further stoking anger^[각주:131] in America. Even if it produces a short-lived^[각주:132] burst of growth, Trumponomics offers no lasting^[각주:133] remedy^[각주:134] for America's economic ills^[각주:135]. It may yet pave the way for^[각주:136] something worse.

1. impulsiveness ; (사회복지학) 충동성 [본문으로]
2. shallowness ; [명사] 얕음; 천박함. [본문으로]
3. rule over ; ~을 지배, 통치하다 [본문으로]
4. court ; 5. KINGS/QUEENS | [sing.] the court 궁중(왕, 그의 가족, 신하들을 포함하여 가리킴) [본문으로]
5. display ; 3. (특정한 자질・느낌・능력의) 표현[과시] [본문으로]
6. be the center of attention ; 관심의 중심이 되다, 이목을 끌다. ;; Something that attracts a lot of attention. [본문으로]
7. impetuousness ; [명사] 충동적임, 성급함; 격렬. [본문으로]
8. have a whiff of ; …을 한 모금 들이마시다. ;; 흐름상 "영향을 받았다, 닮아 있다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
9. fortify ; 3. (감정・태도를) 강화하다 [본문으로]
10. collective ; 2. 공동의, 공통의 [본문으로]
11. mediocrity ; (pl. -ies), (못마땅함) 1. [U] (썩 뛰어나지는 않은) 보통[평범] [본문으로]
12. stand in one's way ; 길을 막다, 거치적거리다, 방해하다 [본문으로]
13. sacking ; 1. [C] 파면, 해고 [본문으로]
14. kick ... out (of sth) ; (~에서) ~를 쫓아내다 [본문으로]
15. within one's rights ; 자신의 권리 내에서; (…하는 것도) 당연하여[to do] [본문으로]
16. draw attention to sth/sb ; ~에 이목을, 관심을 집중시키다 [본문으로]
17. link ; 2. ~ (between A and B) | ~ (with sth) (사람・국가・조직 사이의) 관계[유대] [본문으로]
18. contempt for ; …에 대한 경멸. [본문으로]
19. norm ; 2. [pl.] norms 규범, 규준 [본문으로]
20. would-be ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) (장차) …이 되려고 하는[…을 지망하는] [본문으로]
21. hold[keep] ... in check ; ~을 저지[억제]하다 [본문으로]
22. no less important ; ~에 못지않게 중요한 [본문으로]
23. orthodoxy ; (pl. -ies) 1. [C , U] (격식) 통설 [본문으로]
24. accuracy ; [U] 정확, 정확도 [본문으로]
25. consistency ; (pl. -ies) 1. [U] (호감) (태도・의견 등이) 한결같음, 일관성 [본문으로]
26. in a series of ; ~의 연속 [본문으로]
27. earth-shattering ; [형용사] 세상이 깜짝 놀랄, 경천동지할 [본문으로]
28. stoke ; [vn] 1. ~ sth (up) (with sth) 불을 때다, 연료를 더 넣다 [본문으로]
29. pose (a) danger to ; ~에게 위험한 일이 되다 [본문으로]
30. extensive ; 2. (다루는 정보가) 광범위한[폭넓은] [본문으로]
31. growth rate ; 성장률, 증가율 [본문으로]
32. talk of ; …에 관해 이야기하다; …의 소문을 이야기하다 [본문으로]
33. a full percentage point ; 1%정도의, 적은 차이로 [본문으로]
34. sustainable ; 2. 오랫동안 지속[유지] 가능한 [본문으로]
35. pace ; 4. [U] (빠른) 변화의 속도; 속도감 [본문으로]
36. free-trader ; (경제) 자유 무역주의자 [본문으로]
37. outlook ; 1. [주로 단수로] ~ (on sth) (특정 개인・집단・문화가 가진 인생・세계에 대한) 관점, 세계관, 인생관 [본문으로]
38. squarely ; 2. 곧바로, 정확하게 ;; 참고 fairly [본문으로]
39. trade flow ; 교역 흐름 [본문으로]
40. be balanced ; 균형잡히다 [본문으로]
41. be rewarded for ; ~에 대한 보상을 받다 [본문으로]
42. strand ; 2. (생각・계획・이야기 등의) 가닥[부분] [본문으로]
43. tax cut ; 감세(減稅) [본문으로]
44. deregulation ; [명사] (인허가 따위 정부의) 규제 완화[철폐], 자유화, 규제 해제. [본문으로]
45. domestic investment ; 국대 투자 [본문으로]
46. fire up ; ~에게 열의[흥미]를 불어넣다 [본문으로]
47. standard ; 1. AVERAGE/NORMAL | 일반적인, 보통의 [본문으로]
48. supply-side economics ; 공급측 (중시)의 경제(이론[학]) [본문으로]
49. rehash ; [noun] 1. the act of rehashing. 2. something rehashed. ;; [verb] [타동사][VN] (못마땅함) (생각・글・영화 등을) 거의 그대로 반복하다, 재탕을 내놓다 [본문으로]
50. a departure for ; …로의 출발. [본문으로]
51. champion ; [타동사][VN] …을 위해 싸우다, …을 옹호하다 [본문으로]
52. Reaganomics ; [명사] 레이건 경제 정책 ((감세와 통화 조정 등)) [본문으로]
53. doctrine ; 2. [C] Doctrine (美) (정부 정책상의) 원칙, 독트린 [본문으로]
54. be best seen as[known for] ; ~로 가장 잘 나타난다, 보여진다[알려져 있다] [본문으로]
55. be put together by ; ~와 함께하다, ~가 참여하다 [본문으로]
56. courtier ; [명사] (특히 과거 왕을 보필하던) 조신 [본문으로]
57. scores of ; 많은 [본문으로]
58. be born of ; …에서 태어나다, …에 유래[기인]하는 [본문으로]
59. mindset where ; mindset을 where로 받는 것을 확인 [본문으로]
60. canny ; [형용사] (특히 재계・정계에서) 약삭빠른[영리한] [본문으로]
61. confound ; [vn], (격식) 1. 어리둥절[당혹]하게 만들다 [본문으로]
62. abstract principle ; 추상적인 원칙 [본문으로]
63. boardroom ; [명사] 중역 회의실, 이사회실 [본문으로]
64. wishlist ; [명사] (비격식) 소원 목록, 희망사항 목록 [본문으로]
65. critics on ; ~에 대한 비판 [본문으로]
66. lay into sb/sth; ~을 마구 때리다; ~을 몹시 나무라다[비난하다] ;; [VERB] to attack forcefully [본문으로]
67. distributional consequences ; 소득재분배효과 [본문으로]
68. fiscal ; 재정규율 [본문으로]
69. cronyism ; [U] (못마땅함) 정실(情實) 인사 ;; [NOUN] If you accuse someone in authority of cronyism, you mean that they use their power or authority to get jobs for their friends. [본문으로]
70. enthusiastic ; [형용사] ~ (about sb/sth) | ~ (about doing sth) 열렬한, 열광적인 [본문으로]
71. a shot in the arm ; 도움[격려]이 되는 것, 기운을 회복시켜 주는 것; 활력소; 성원; (사람에게) 힘을 실어주는 일 [본문으로]
72. take a risk ; (위험할 수 있는 줄 알면서) 모험을 하다[받아들이다], 위험을 무릅쓰다, 잘 되든 안 되든 해보다 ;; 동의어 take risks [본문으로]
73. seek (a) profit ; 영리를, 이익, 이윤을 추구하다 [본문으로]
74. be close to ; …에 접근해 있다; …에 가깝다 [본문으로]
75. record high ; [명사] 최고의 기록 [본문으로]
76. indices ; INDEX의 복수 ;; 3. (pl. in・dexes 또는 in・dices / 'IndIsiːz /) (물가・임금 등의) 지수 ;; 4. (pl. in・dices / 'IndIsiːz /) 지표 [본문으로]
77. soar ; 1. (가치・물가 등이) 급증[급등]하다[치솟다] [본문으로]
78. in the short term ; 단기적으로 [본문으로]
79. prove ; 2. BE | (…임이) 드러나다[판명되다] [본문으로]
80. self-fulfilling ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) (예언이) 자기 충족적인 [본문으로]
81. bully ; [타동사][VN] (bul・lies , bully・ing , bul・lied , bul・lied) ~ sb (into sth/into doing sth) (약자를) 괴롭히다[왕따시키다]; 협박하다 [본문으로]
82. renegotiate ; [타동사, 자동사] 재교섭하다; <계약·조약 등을> 재조정하다 [본문으로]
83. sermon ; 1. 설교 2. (비격식 보통 못마땅함) 설교(조의 잔소리) ;; US [|s3:rmən] UK [|s3:mən] [본문으로]
84. fiscal prudence ; 재정 긴축 ;; 참고 ; 긴축 재정 ; fiscal austerity [본문으로]
85. deny A B ; B of A 정도로 이해하면 수월함 ;; a tax cut of Mr Trump [본문으로]
86. stimulus ; (pl. stim・uli / -laI /), [~ (to/for sth) | ~ (to do sth)] 1. [주로 단수로] 자극제, 자극[고무/격려](이 되는 것) [본문으로]
87. rule-slashing ; 흐름상 "규칙, 규범을 무시하는" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
88. quiescent ; [형용사] (격식) 조용한, 잠잠한 ;; US·UK [kwi|esnt] [본문으로]
89. choke ; 1. ~ (on sth) 숨이 막히다, 질식할 지경이다; 질식시키다 [본문으로]
90. unleash ; [타동사][VN] ~ sth (on/upon sb/sth) (강력한 반응・감정 등을) 촉발시키다[불러일으키다] [본문으로]
91. pent-up ; [형용사] 감정・에너지 등이 억눌린 [본문으로]
92. implicit in ; …의 속에 함축된, 잠재하는 [본문으로]
93. inconsistent ; 1. [대개 명사 앞에는 안 씀] ~ (with sth) (진술 등이) 내용이 다른[모순되는] [본문으로]
94. decades out of date ; 수십년은 뒤쳐진 [본문으로]
95. contrary to ; ~에 반해 서, ~와는 달리 [본문으로]
96. assertion ; 1. [C] (사실임을) 주장 [본문으로]
97. biased against ; …에 대해 편견을 가진 [본문으로]
98. trade deficit ; [명사] (주로 단수로) 무역 수지 적자 [본문으로]
99. gauge ; 5. [주로 단수로] ~ (of sth) (평가・판단 등의) 기준 [본문으로]
100. Mr Trump's main gauge of the unfairness of trade deals ; 's와 of가 연달아서 쓰여진 경우 확인 [본문으로]
101. the fine print ; (보통 작은 문자로 인쇄된) 세세한 항목. [본문으로]
102. all but ; 거의 [본문으로]
103. domestic investment ; 국대 투자 [본문으로]
104. measure ; 4. WAY OF SHOWING/JUDGING | [C] (판단・측정의) 척도[기준] [본문으로]
105. damagingly ; [부사] 손해를 끼치게, 해롭게. [본문으로]
106. curb ; [타동사][VN] (특히 좋지 못한 것을) 억제[제한]하다 [본문으로]
107. protectionist ; [명사] 보호 무역론자 [본문으로]
108. sow ; 2. [타동사][VN] ~ sth (in sth) (특히 문제의 소지가 있는 감정・생각 등을) 심다[싹트게 하다] [본문으로]
109. draw on ; (이용 가능한 공급품에) 의지하다 ;; to use something that you have or that is available to help you do something [본문으로]
110. blinkered ; [형용사] (못마땅함) 시야가 좁은, 편협한 [본문으로]
111. manufacturing job ; 생산직 [본문으로]
112. blind ; 3. ~ sb (to sth) 맹목적이 되게 만들다 [본문으로]
113. turbulence ; [U] 1. 격동, 격변 [본문으로]
114. ravage ; [동사] (주로 수동태로) 황폐[피폐]하게 만들다, 유린[파괴]하다 [본문으로]
115. retailing ; [명사] 소매업 ;; 참고 wholesaling [본문으로]
116. economic nationalism ; (경제학) 쇄국경제주의, 경제적 국민주의 [본문으로]
117. speed ; 3. MOVE/HAPPEN QUICKLY | [타동사][VN] (격식) 더 빠르게 하다, 가속화하다 [본문으로]
118. automation ; [명사] 자동화 [본문으로]
119. outsource ; [동사] (상업) (회사가 작업・생산을) 외부에 위탁하다 [본문으로]
120. stay competitive ; 경쟁력을 가지다, 유지하다 [본문으로]
121. at home ; 흐름상 "국내" 를 의미 [본문으로]
122. less-skilled ; 숙련되지 않은, 비숙련의 [본문으로]
123. long-term prosperity ; 장기적 번영 [본문으로]
124. indebted ; 2. (국가・정부 등이 다른 국가・단체 등에) 부채가 있는 ;; US.UK [ɪn|detɪd] [본문으로]
125. neglect ; 2. [타동사][VN] 도외시하다, 등한하다 [본문으로]
126. retrain ; [동사] ~ (sb) (as sth) (새로운 직종・기술 등에 대해) 재교육을 받다[하다] [본문으로]
127. hardworking ; [형용사] 근면한, 부지런히 일하는. [본문으로]
128. redundant ; 2. 불필요한, 쓸모없는 [본문으로]
129. contradiction ; 1. [C , U] ~ (between A and B) 모순 [본문으로]
130. backlash ; [명사] ~ (against sth) | ~ (from sb) (사회 변화 등에 대한 대중의) 반발 [본문으로]
131. stoke ; 2. ~ sth (up) (감정을) 더 부추기다[돋우다] [본문으로]
132. short-lived ; [형용사] 오래가지 못하는, 단명하는 [본문으로]
133. lasting ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) 영속적인, 지속적인 ;; 참고 long-lasting [본문으로]
134. remedy ; (pl. -ies), [~ (for/to sth)] 1. 처리 방안, 해결[개선]책 [본문으로]
135. economic ills ; 경제적 병폐 [본문으로]
136. pave the way for ; [동사] …을 위해 길을 열다, …에 대해 준비하다; 촉진하다. ;; 동의어 pave the way to, prepare for, lead up to. [본문으로]