[Annotated] How government policy exacerbates hurricanes like Harvey

As if global warming were not enough of a threat, poor planning^[각주:1] and unwise^[각주:2] subsidies make floods worse

The extent of the devastation will become clear^[각주:3] only when the floodwater^[각주:4] recedes^[각주:5], leaving ruined cars, filthy^[각주:6] mud-choked^[각주:7] houses and the bloated^[각주:8] corpses of the drowned. But as we went to press, with the rain pounding^[각주:9] South Texas for the sixth day, Hurricane Harvey had already set records as America's most severe deluge^[각주:10]. In Houston it drenched^[각주:11] Harris County in over 4.5 trn litres of water in just 100 hours - enough rainfall^[각주:12] to cover an eight-year-old child.

The fate of America's fourth-largest city holds the world's attention^[각주:13], but it is hardly alone. In India, Bangladesh and Nepal, at least 1,200 people have died and millions have been left homeless by this year's monsoon floods^[각주:14]. Last month torrential^[각주:15] rains caused a mudslide in^[각주:16] Sierra Leone that killed over 1,000 - though the exact toll will never be known. Around the world, governments are grappling with^[각주:17] the threat from floods. This will ultimately be about dealing with climate change. Just as important, is correcting short-sighted^[각주:18] government policy and the perverse^[각주:19] incentives^[각주:20] that make flooding worse. 

Judgment day

The overwhelming good news is that storms and flooding have caused far fewer deaths in recent decades, thanks to better warning systems^[각주:21] and the construction of levees^[각주:22], ditches^[각주:23] and shelters. The cyclone that struck Bangladesh in 1970 killed 300,000 - 500,000 people; the most recent severe one, in 2007, killed 4,234. The bad news is that storms and floods still account for almost three-quarters of^[각주:24] weather-related disasters, and they are becoming more common. According to the Munich Re, a reinsurer^[각주:25], their number around the world has increased from about 200 in 1980 to over 600 last year. Harvey was the third "500-year" storm to strike Houston since 1979.

At the same time, floods and storms are also becoming more costly. By one estimate^[각주:26], three times as many people were living in houses threatened by hurricanes in 2010 as in 1970, and the number is expected to grow as still more people move to coastal cities^[각주:27]. The UN reckons^[각주:28] that, in the 20 years to 2015, storms and floods caused $1.7trn of destruction; the World Health Organization estimates that, in real terms, the global cost of hurricane damage is rising by 6% a year. Flood losses^[각주:29] in Europe are predicted to increase fivefold^[각주:30] by 2050.

One cause is global warming. The frequency and severity of^[각주:31] hurricanes vary^[각주:32] naturally - America has seen unusually few in the past decade. Yet the underlying^[각주:33] global trend is what you would expect from climate change. Warmer seas evaporate faster and warmer air can hold more water vapor^[각주:34], which releases energy when it condenses inside^[각주:35] a weather system, feeding the violence of storms^[각주:36] and the intensity of deluges^[각주:37]. Rising sea levels, predicted to be especially marked in the Gulf of Mexico, exacerbate storm surges, adding to the flooding. Harvey was unusually devastating because it suddenly gained strength before it made landfall on^[각주:38] Friday; it then stayed put^[각주:39], dumping its rain on Houston before returning to the Gulf. Again, that is consistent with^[각주:40] models of a warmers world.

Poor planning bears even more blame^[각주:41]. Houston, which has almost no restrictions on land-use^[각주:42], is an extreme example of what can go wrong. Although a light touch has enabled developers to cater to^[각주:43] the city's rapid growth - 1.8m extra inhabitants^[각주:44] since 2000 - it has also led to concrete being^[각주:45] laid over vast areas of coastal prairie^[각주:46] that used to absorb the rain. According to the Texas Tribune and ProPublica, a charity that finances^[각주:47] investigative journalism, since 2010 Harris County has allowed more than 8,600 buildings to be put up inside 100-year floodplains^[각주:48], where floods have a 1% chance of occurring in any year. Developers are supposed to build ponds to hold run-off water^[각주:49] that would have soaked into^[각주:50] undeveloped land, but the rules are poorly enforced. Because the maps are not kept up to date^[각주:51], properties supposedly^[각주:52] outside the 100-year floodplain are being flooded^[각주:53] repeatedly. 

Government failure adds to the harm. Developing countries are underinsured against^[각주:54] natural disasters. Swiss Re, a reinsurer, says that of the $50bn or so of losses to floods, cyclones and other disasters in Asia in 2014, only 8% were covered. The Bank of International Settlements^[각주:55] calculates that the worst natural catastrophes^[각주:56] typically permanently lower the afflicted^[각주:57] country's GDP by almost 2%. America has the opposite problem - the federal government subsidizes the insurance premiums^[각주:58] of vulnerable houses. The National Flood Insurance^[각주:59] Programme (NFIP) has been forced to borrow because it fails to charge enough to cover its risk of losses. Underpricing encourages the building of new houses and discourages existing owners from renovating^[각주:60] or moving out^[각주:61]. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency^[각주:62], houses that repeatedly flood account for 1% of NFIP's properties but 25-30% of its claims. Five states, Texas among them, have more than 10,000 such households and, nationwide^[각주:63], their number has been going up by around 5,000 each year. Insurance is meant to provide a signal about risk; in this case, it stifles^[각주:64] it. 

Mend^[각주:65] the roof while the sun shines

What to do? Flooding^[각주:66] strengthens the case for minimizing climate change, which threatens to make wet places wetter and storms stormier^[각주:67]. Even those who doubt the science would do well to see action as^[각주:68] an insurance policy that pays out^[각주:69] if the case is proven. However, that will not happen fast, even if all countries, including America, sign up to international agreements. More immediately, therefore, politicians can learn from Houston. Cities need to protect flood defences and catchment areas^[각주:70], such as the wetlands^[각주:71] around Kolkata and the lakes in and around Pokhara in Nepal, whose value is becoming clear. Flood maps need to be up to date. Civil engineers, often starved of funds^[각주:72] and strangled by^[각주:73] bureaucracy, should be building and reinforcing levees^[각주:74] and reservoirs^[각주:75] now, before it is too late. The NFIP should start to charge market premiums and developing countries should sell catastrophe bonds^[각주:76]. All this is a test of government, of foresight^[각주:77] and the ability to withstand^[각주:78] the lobbying of^[각주:79] homeowners and developers. But politicians and officials who fail the test need to realize that, sooner or later^[각주:80], they will wake up to^[각주:81] a Hurricane Harvey of their own. 

1. planning ; [U] 1. 계획 (세우기・과정), 입안 ;; 참고 ; family planning [본문으로]
2. unwise ; [형용사] ~ (to do sth) 현명하지 못한, 어리석은 [본문으로]
3. become clear ; 명백해지다 [본문으로]
4. floodwater ; [U] (flood・waters [pl.]) 홍수로 인한 물 [본문으로]
5. recede ; 2. (특히 문제・느낌・특질이) 약해지다, 희미해지다 [본문으로]
6. filthy ; (filth・ier , filthi・est) 1. 아주 더러운 [본문으로]
7. choke ; 4. [타동사][VN] ~ sth (up) (with sth) (통로・공간 등을) 막다[채우다] [본문으로]
8. bloated ; 1. 부은, 부푼 [본문으로]
9. pound ; 1. HIT | ~ (away) (at/against/on sth) (특히요란한 소리를 내며 여러 차례)치다[두드리다] [본문으로]
10. deluge ; [주로 단수로] 1. 폭우, 호우 2. 쇄도, 폭주 [본문으로]
11. drench ; [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] ~ sb/sth (in/with sth) 흠뻑 적시다 [본문으로]
12. rainfall ; [U , sing.] 강우(량) [본문으로]
13. hold one's attention ; ~의 주의, 관심을 끌다 [본문으로]
14. monsoon flood ; 몬순홍수 [본문으로]
15. torrential ; [형용사] 비가 양동이로 들이붓듯이[앞이 안 보이게] 내리는 [본문으로]
16. mudslide ; [명사] 이류(泥流: 산사태 때 걷잡을 수 없이 흘러내리는 진흙 더미) ; mudflow [본문으로]
17. grapple with ; ~을 해결하려고 노력하다 [본문으로]
18. short-sighted ; 2. 근시안적인 [본문으로]
19. perverse ; [형용사] (사고방식・태도가) 비뚤어진[삐딱한] [본문으로]
20. incentive ; [C , U] ~ (for/to sb/sth) (to do sth) (어떤 행동을 장려하기 위한) 장려[우대]책 [본문으로]
21. warning system ; 경보, 경고 체계 [본문으로]
22. levee ; (美) 1. (강가의) 제방 2. (강가의) 부두[선착장] ;; US.UK [|levi] [본문으로]
23. ditch ; [명사] (들판・도로가의) 배수로 [본문으로]
24. three-quarters ; [명사] ~ (of sth) 4분의 3 [본문으로]
25. reinsurer ; [명사] 재보험자 [본문으로]
26. estimate ; 1. 추정(치), 추산 2. 견적서 [본문으로]
27. coastal city ; [명사] 해안 도시 [본문으로]
28. reckon ; 4. ~ sth (at sth) (양・수 등을) 계산[추산/추정]하다 [본문으로]
29. flood losses ; [명사] (수문학) 홍수 손실(洪水損失) [본문으로]
30. fivefold ; 1. 5배의, 5겹의 2. 5부분[요소]이 있는 [본문으로]
31. severity ; 1-a. [U] 격렬, 혹독(harshness) 1-b. [U] 엄격, 엄정(accuracy) 1-c. 통렬함, 신랄함, 격렬함 1-d. 괴로움, 쓰라림 2. 간소, 수수함, 소박한 멋 3. [보통 pl.] 모진 경험, 가혹한 처사 [본문으로]
32. vary ; 2. [자동사][V] ~ (with sth) | ~ (from sth to sth) | ~ (between A and B) (상황에 따라) 달라지다[다르다] [본문으로]
33. underlying ; [명사 앞에만 씀], (참고: underlie) 1. (겉으로 잘 드러나지는 않지만) 근본적인[근원적인] [본문으로]
34. water vapor ; 수증기(cf. STEAM) [본문으로]
35. condense ; 1. ~ (sth) (into sth) (기체가) 응결되다; 응결시키다 [본문으로]
36. feed ; 6. SUPPLY | [타동사][VN] ~ A (with B) | ~ B into A 공급하다 [본문으로]
37. intensity ; 2. [U , C] (보통 전문 용어) (빛 등의) 강도[세기] [본문으로]
38. make landfall ; 상륙하다 [본문으로]
39. stay put ; (있던 자리에) 그대로[가만히] 있다, [美] 그대로 있다. [명성(名聲) 등이] 남다 [본문으로]
40. be consistent with ; ~와 일관되다, 맞다 [본문으로]
41. bear blame ; 책임을 지다, 면책을 받다 [본문으로]
42. land-use ; [명사] (국토계획학) 토지 이용도(土地利用度) [본문으로]
43. cater to ; ~의 구미에 맞추다[~에 영합하다], ~을 충족시키다, 만족시키다 [본문으로]
44. inhabitant ; [명사] (특정 지역의) 주민[서식 동물] [본문으로]
45. concrete ; 1. 콘크리트로 된 [본문으로]
46. prairie ; [C , U] (북미・캐나다의) 대초원 ;; US [|preri] UK [|preəri] [본문으로]
47. finance ; [타동사][VN] 자금[재원]을 대다 [본문으로]
48. floodplain ; [명사] (홍수의) 범람원(氾濫原). [본문으로]
49. run-off water ; (농업) 유거수(流去水) [본문으로]
50. soak into/through ; (~에) 스며[배어]들다 ;; 동의어 ; soak in [본문으로]
51. up to date ; 2. (정보가) 최근의[최신의] [본문으로]
52. supposedly ; [부사] 추정상, 아마 [본문으로]
53. flood ; 2. OF RIVER | 범람하다[시키다] [본문으로]
54. underinsured ; [형용사] 보험을 충분히 들지 않은[부분적으로만 든] [본문으로]
55. the Bank of International Settlement ; 국제 결제 은행 [본문으로]
56. catastrophe ; 1. 참사, 재앙 ;; US.UK [kə|tӕstrəfi] [본문으로]
57. afflicted ; 1. 괴로워하는, 고민하는 [본문으로]
58. insurance premium ; 보험료 [본문으로]
59. flood insurance ; [명사] (수문학) 홍수 보험(洪水保險) [본문으로]
60. renovate ; [타동사][VN] (낡은 건물・가구 등을) 개조[보수]하다 [본문으로]
61. move out ; (살던 집에서) 이사를 나가다 [본문으로]
62. the Federal Emergency Management Agency ; [명사] 연방 긴급 사태 관리청(재해 대책 기구; FEMA). [본문으로]
63. nationwide ; [형용사] 전국적인 [본문으로]
64. stifle ; 1. [타동사][VN] (감정 등을) 억누르다, 억압하다 [본문으로]
65. mend ; 1. [타동사][VN] (英) 수리하다, 고치다 ;; 참고 ; fence-mending [본문으로]
66. flooding ; 1. 홍수, 범람; 충만 [본문으로]
67. stormy ; [형용사] (storm・ier , stormi・est) 1. 폭풍우[눈보라]가 몰아치는, (날씨가) 험악한 [본문으로]
68. see action ; 전투에, 실전, 실제 상황에 참가하다, 실전을 경험하다 [본문으로]
69. pay out ; 값을 치루다. ;; 흐름상 "적절한 효과를 내주다, 역할을 하다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
70. catchment area ; 2. (catch・ment) (또한 전문 용어) (특정 강이나 호수로) 빗물이 함께 모이는 구역 [본문으로]
71. wetland ; [C , U] (wet・lands [pl.]) 습지(대) [본문으로]
72. starve ; (주로 수동태로) ~에게 ~을 주지 않다[~을 ~에 굶주리게 하다] ;; (美 또한 starve somebody/something for something) [본문으로]
73. strangle ; 2. 목을 조이다, 옭죄다 [본문으로]
74. levee ; (美) 1. (강가의) 제방 2. (강가의) 부두[선착장] [본문으로]
75. reservoir ; 1. 저수지, 급수장 2. (격식) (많은 양의) 비축[저장/보유] 3. (전문 용어) (엔진・기계에서 오일 등을 보관하는) 저장소[통] ;; US [|rezərvwɑ:(r)] UK [|rezəvwɑ:(r)] [본문으로]
76. catastrophe bond ; 대재해 채권 [본문으로]
77. foresight ; [U] (호감) 예지력, 선견지명 ;; 참고 ; hindsight [본문으로]
78. withstand ; [타동사][VN] (with・stood , with・stood / -'stUd /) (격식) 견뎌[이겨] 내다 [본문으로]
79. lobbying ; [명사] 로비 활동, 의안 통과[저지] 활동(운동); 청원[진정] 운동; 원외 활동. ;; 동의어 ; lobbyism. [본문으로]
80. sooner or later ; 조만간[머잖아], 이내(곧). [본문으로]
81. wake up to ; ~을 의식하게[깨닫게] 되다, …을 알아차리다. [본문으로]