[Annotated] The end of engagement

How the world's two superpowers have become rivals^[각주:1]

For the past quarter century America's approach to China has been founded on a belief in convergence^[각주:2]. Political and economic integration^[각주:3] would not just make China wealthier, they would also make it more liberal, pluralistic^[각주:4] and democratic. There were crises, such as a face-off in^[각주:5] the Taiwan Strait in 1996 or the downing of^[각주:6] a spy-plane in^[각주:7] 2001. But America cleaved to^[각주:8] the conviction that^[각주:9], with the right incentives^[각주:10], China would eventually join the world order as a "responsible stakeholder^[각주:11]". 

Today convergence is dead. America has come to see China as a strategic rival - a malevolent actor^[각주:12] and a rule-breaker^[각주:13]. The Trump administration accuses it of interfering in America's culture^[각주:14] and politics, of stealing intellectual property^[각주:15] and trading unfairly^[각주:16], and of seeking not just leadership in Asia, but also global dominance^[각주:17]. It condemns^[각주:18] China's record on human rights at home^[각주:19] and an aggressive expansion abroad^[각주:20]. This month Mike Pence, the vice-president, warned that China was engaged in a "whole-of-government^[각주:21]" offensive^[각주:22]. His speech sounded ominously^[각주:23] like an early bugle-call in^[각주:24] a new cold war. 

Do not presume that^[각주:25] Mr Pence and his boss, President Donald Trump, are alone. Democrats and Republicans are vying to^[각주:26] outdo each other in^[각주:27] bashing China^[각주:28]. Not since the late 1940s has the mood among American businessfolk^[각주:29], diplomats and the armed forces^[각주:30] swung so rapidly behind the idea that the United States faces a new ideological^[각주:31] and strategic rival. 

At the same time^[각주:32], China is undergoing its own change of heart^[각주:33]. Chinese strategists have long suspected that^[각주:34] America has secretly wanted to block their country's rise^[각주:35]. That is partly why China sought to minimize^[각주:36] confrontation by^[각주:37] "hiding its strengths and biding its time^[각주:38]". For many Chinese the financial crisis of 2008 swept aside^[각주:39] the need for humility^[각주:40]. It set America back while China thrived^[각주:41]. President Xi Jinping has since promoted his "Chinese Dream" of a nation that stands tall in the world^[각주:42]. Many Chinese see America as a hypocrite that^[각주:43] commits all the sins it accuses China of. The time to hide and bide is over^[각주:44]. 

This is deeply alarming^[각주:45]. According to thinkers such as Graham Allison of Harvard University, history shows how hegemons like^[각주:46] the United States and rising powers like China can become locked into a cycle of belligerent^[각주:47] rivalry^[각주:48]. 

America fears that time is on China's side. The Chinese economy is growing more than twice as fast as America's and the state is pouring money into^[각주:49] advanced technology^[각주:50], such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and biotech. Action that is merely daunting today^[각주:51] - to stem the illegal acquisition of^[각주:52] intellectual property, say, or to challenge China in the South China Sea - may be impossible tomorrow. Like it or not, the new norms governing how^[각주:53] the superpowers^[각주:54] will treat each other are being established now. Once expectations have been set, changing them again will be hard. For the sake of mankind^[각주:55], China and America need to come to a peaceful understanding^[각주:56]. But how? 

Mr Trump and his administration have got three things right. The first is that America needs to be strong. It has toughened the rules on^[각주:57] takeovers^[각주:58], to give more weight to^[각주:59] national security^[각주:60]. It has extradited an alleged Chinese intelligence officer^[각주:61] from Belgium^[각주:62]. It has increased military spending^[각주:63] (though the extra money going to Europe still dwarfs that going to the Pacific^[각주:64]). And it has just boosted^[각주:65] foreign aid^[각주:66] in order to counter^[각주:67] lavish Chinese investment abroad^[각주:68]. 

Mr Trump is also right that America needs to reset expectations about^[각주:69] Chinese behaviour. Today's trading system fails to prevent China's state-backed firms from^[각주:70] blurring the line between^[각주:71] commercial interests^[각주:72] and the national interest^[각주:73]. Government money subsidizes and protects companies as^[각주:74] they buy up dual-use technology^[각주:75] or skew international markets^[각주:76]. China has used its state-directed^[각주:77] commercial clout in^[각주:78] smaller countries to influence foreign policy in^[각주:79], say, the European Union. The West needs transparency about^[각주:80] the funding of^[각주:81] political parties^[각주:82], think-tanks and university departments. 

Third, Mr Trump's unique ability to signal^[각주:83] his disregard for^[각주:84] conventional wisdom^[각주:85] seems to have been effective. He is not subtle^[각주:86] or consistent^[각주:87], but as with Canadian and Mexican trade, American bullying can lead to dealmaking^[각주:88]. China will not be so easily pushed around^[각주:89] - its economy depends less on exports to America than Canada's and Mexico's do and Mr Xi cannot afford meekly^[각주:90] to disavow his Chinese Dream in front of his people^[각주:91]. Yet Mr Trump's willingness to disrupt and offend has already wrong-footed China's leaders^[각주:92], who thought they could count on America^[각주:93] being unwilling to rock the boat^[각주:94]. 

For what comes next, however, Mr Trump needs a strategy, not just tactics. A starting point^[각주:95] must be to promote America's values. Mr Trump acts as if he believes that might is right. He shows a cynical disdain for the values^[각주:96] America enshrined in global institutions after^[각주:97] the second world war. If he follows that course America will be diminished as an idea and as a moral and political force. When America competes with^[각주:98] China as a guardian of a rules-based order, it starts from a position of strength. But any Western democracy that enters a ruthless race to the bottom with^[각주:99] China will - and should - lose. 

The strategy should leave room for China to rise peacefully - which inevitably also means allowing China to extend its influence^[각주:100]. That is partly because a zero-sum attempt at^[각주:101] containment is^[각주:102] likely to lead to conflict. But it is also because America and China need to co-operate despite^[각주:103] their rivalry^[각주:104]. The two countries are more commercially^[각주:105] intertwined than^[각주:106] America and the Soviet Union ever were. And they share responsibilities including - even if Mr Trump denies it - the environment and security interests^[각주:107], such as the Korean peninsula. 

And America's strategy must include the asset that separates it most clearly from China: alliances. In trade, for example, Mr Trump should work with the EU and Japan to press China to change^[각주:108]. In defence Mr Trump should not only abandon his alliance-bashing^[각주:109] but bolster old friends^[각주:110], like Japan and Australia, while nurturing new ones^[각주:111], like India and Vietnam. Alliances are America's best source of protection against the advantage^[각주:112] China will reap from its increasing economic and military power^[각주:113]. 

Perhaps it was inevitable that China and America would end up rivals. It is not inevitable that rivalry must lead to war^[각주:114]. 

1. superpower ; [명사] 초강대국(미국 같은 군사적·경제적 대국) ;; [NOUN] A superpower is a very powerful and influential country, usually one that is rich and has nuclear weapons. [본문으로]
2. convergence (convergency) ; 1-f). (공산주의 사회와 비공산권과의) 괴리(乖離) 축소화 [본문으로]
3. economic integration ; Economic integration is the unification of economic policies between different states through the partial or full abolition of tariff and non-tariff restrictions on trade taking place among them prior to their integration. This is meant in turn to lead to lower prices for distributors and consumers with the goal of increasing the level of welfare, while leading to an increase of economic productivity of the states. [본문으로]
4. pluralistic ; 다원론(적)인; 다민족(적)인 ;; [ADJ] Pluralistic means the same as pluralist. ;; 미국∙영국 [plùərəlístik] [본문으로]
5. face-off ; 2. (美구어) 대결(confrontation). [본문으로]
6. down ; [VN] (비격식) 2. [타동사] (비행기 등을) 격추하다 ;; downing 으로 해서 명사적으로 활용한 것을 확인 [본문으로]
7. spy plane ; 정찰기(機) ;; [Noun] A military aircraft used for surveillance. [본문으로]
8. cleave to ; …을 고수하다. [본문으로]
9. conviction ; 2. [C, U] ~ (that…) (강한) 신념[의견] ;; 3. [U] 확신 [본문으로]
10. incentive ; 1. 자극(stimulus), 유인(誘因)(spur), 동기(motive)(cf. motivation). ;; 2. (심리) (행동의 동기가 되는) 외적(外的) 자극, 유인(cf. drive (n.) 12). [본문으로]
11. stakeholder ; 건 돈을 맡는 제삼자; 투자자, 주주; 이해관계자, 책임자 [본문으로]
12. malevolent ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) 악의 있는, 악의적인 ; 유의어 malicious, wicked ;; [ADJ] A malevolent person deliberately tries to cause harm or evil. [본문으로]
13. rule-breaker ; [Noun] One who breaks a rule. [본문으로]
14. interfere ; 2. 개입하다, 중재(仲裁)하다, 조정하다(intervene, mediate). ;; 3. 훼방하다, 방해하다, 저촉하다(hinder, interrupt)(with). [본문으로]
15. intellectual property ; [U] (법률) 지적 재산 [본문으로]
16. unfairly ; [부사] 불공평하게, 편파적으로; 교활하게; 부정하게. [본문으로]
17. dominance ; U] 1. 지배, 권세; 우세, 우위, 우월; 탁월(성). [본문으로]
18. condemn ; 1. [타동사][VN] ~ sb/sth (for/as sth) (보통 도덕적인 이유로) 규탄[비난]하다 [본문으로]
19. record ; 4. [sing.] ~ (on sth) (과거의 행동공적 등을 보여주는) 기록, 경력, 전력 ; 참조 track record ;; 5. [C] (ˌcriminal ˈrecord) 전과(前科) [본문으로]
20. expansion ; [U, C] 확대, 확장, 팽창 ;; [NOUN] Expansion is the process of becoming greater in size, number, or amount. [본문으로]
21. whole-of-government approach ; 정부 전체 접근법 ((특정 문제를 해결하기 위해 다양한 부처 및 공공 행정 기관들의 공동 활동)) [본문으로]
22. offensive ; 1. (군사적) 공격 ; 유의어 strike ;; 2. (어떤 일을 달성하기 위한 대대적인) 공세[운동] ; 유의어 campaign [본문으로]
23. ominously ; [부사] 불길하게, 기분 나쁘게; 불온하게. ; 유의어 bodefully, threateningly, menacingly. [본문으로]
24. like a bugle call ; 돌연, 갑자기 ;; bugle call ; 집합 나팔 (소리) [본문으로]
25. presume ; 1. (실질적인 증거는 없지만 사실일 것이라고) 추정하다[여기다/생각하다] ; 유의어 assume [본문으로]
26. vie ; [자동사] (vied; vy·ing) (…과) 우열을 다투다, 겨루다, 경쟁하다[for, in, with, to inf]. [본문으로]
27. outdo ; (-did; outdone) (행위 따위가) …을 능가하다, …보다 뛰어나다; …을 앞지르다, …을 이겨내다[in]. ; 유의어 EXCEL [본문으로]
28. bash ; 1. [구어] …을 세게 때리다, 때려 부수다; …에 부딪치다[against]. ;; 2. 혹독하게 비난[비판]하다. [본문으로]
29. business folk ; 실업가들. ;; [Noun] business people [본문으로]
30. the armed forces (英 또한 the ˌarmed ˈservices) ; [pl.] (한 국가의) 군대 [본문으로]
31. ideological ; [형용사] 사상적인, 이념적인 ;; [ADJ] Ideological means relating to principles or beliefs. [본문으로]
32. at the same time ; 1. 동시에[함께] ;; 2. (고려해야 할 대조적인 사실 등을 언급할 때 써서) 그와 동시에 [본문으로]
33. change of heart ; [명사] 변심. ;; 회심(回心), 개종 ;; 심경의 변화 ;; have[cause, produce] a change of heart ;; 의견[태도]를 바꾸다, 마음을 바꾸다, 개종하다 [본문으로]
34. long ; [부사] 1. 오래, 오랫동안 [본문으로]
35. rise ; [명사] 1. [C] ~ (in sth) (수량수준 등의) 증가[상승] ;; 3. [sing.] ~ (of sb/sth) 성공, 출세; 발흥 [본문으로]
36. minimize ; 1. [타동사] (특히 좋지 못한 것을) 최소화하다 ; 반의어 maximize [본문으로]
37. confrontation ; [U, C] ~ (with sb) | ~ (between A and B) 대치, 대립 [본문으로]
38. bide one's time ; 기회[때]를 기다리다[엿보다] ;; 좋은 시기를 기다리다. ;; [본문으로]
39. sweep (sth/sb) aside ; ~을 완전히 무시하다 ;; …를 제쳐놓다. [본문으로]
40. sweep aside the [본문으로]
41. thrive ; [자동사][V] 번창하다; 잘 자라다 ; 유의어 flourish [본문으로]
42. stand tall ; (특히 美) 자신만만해[당당해] 보이다 ;; show that you are proud and able to deal with anything [본문으로]
43. hypocrite ; [명사] (못마땅함) 위선자 ;; [NOUN] If you accuse someone of being a hypocrite, you mean that they pretend to have qualities, beliefs, or feelings that they do not really have. [본문으로]
44. bide ; [자동사] 살다; 머무르다; 기다리다; (어떤 상태가) 계속되다 ;; [PHRASE] If you bide your time, you wait for a good opportunity before doing something. ;; 미국식 [báid] [본문으로]
45. alarming ; [형용사] 걱정스러운, 두려운 ;; [ADJ] Something that is alarming makes you feel afraid or anxious that something unpleasant or dangerous might happen. [본문으로]
46. hegemon ; [명사] 주도권[헤게모니]을 장악하고 있는 사람[국가], 패권국 ;; 미국식 [hédƷəmɑ̀n] 영국식 [-mɔ́n] [본문으로]
47. belligerent ; 1. 적대적인, 공격적인 ; 유의어 hostile ;; 미국∙영국 [bəˈlɪdʒərənt] [본문으로]
48. rivalry ; [C, U] (pl. -ries) ~ (with sb/sth) (for sth) | ~ (between A and B) (for sth) 경쟁 (의식) ;; [NOUN] Rivalry is competition or fighting between people, businesses, or organizations who are in the same area or want the same things. ;; 미국∙영국 [ˈraɪvlri] [본문으로]
49. pour money into ; (증권·금융) 자금을 쏟아붓다, 집중 투자하다. [본문으로]
50. advanced technology ; 첨단, 선진 기술 [본문으로]
51. daunting ; 벅찬, 주눅이 들게 하는 [본문으로]
52. stem ; [타동사][VN] (-mm-) (흐름을) 막다[저지하다] [본문으로]
53. norm ; 2. [pl.] norms 규범, 규준 [본문으로]
54. superpower ; [명사] 초강대국(미국 같은 군사적·경제적 대국) ;; A superpower is a very powerful and influential country, usually one that is rich and has nuclear weapons. [본문으로]
55. for the sake of sb/sth ; ~ 때문에[~를 위해서](~를 돕기 위해서·~를 좋아해서) ;; 참조 for sb/sth's sake [본문으로]
56. come to sth ; 1. (총계가) ~이 되다 ;; 2. (특히 좋지 않은 상황이) 되다 [본문으로]
57. toughen ; 2. [타동사][VN] (법규 등을) 강화하다[더 엄격히 하다] [본문으로]
58. takeover ; [C,U] 1. 기업[경영권] 인수 ;; 2. (정권 등의) 탈취[장악] [본문으로]
59. give[attach] weight to ; …을 중요시하다; [주장·가능성 따위]를 강화하다 [본문으로]
60. national security ; 국가 안전 보장, 국가 안보 [본문으로]
61. alleged ; 1. (함부로) 주장된; 단정된. ;; 2. 의심스러운(doubtful); 가정(假定)의. ;; [ADJ] An alleged fact has been stated but has not been proved to be true. [본문으로]
62. extradite ; [타동사][VN] ~ sb (to…) (from…) (범죄인을 그 관할국에) 인도하다 ;; 영영사전 [VERB] If someone is extradited, they are officially sent back to their own or another country to be tried for a crime that they have been accused of. [본문으로]
63. military spending ; [명사] 군비 [본문으로]
64. dwarf ; [타동사][VN] 왜소해 보이게 만들다 ;; 1. to restrict the growth of : STUNT ;; 2 . to cause to appear smaller or to seem inferior [본문으로]
65. boost ; 1. [타동사] 신장시키다, 북돋우다 [본문으로]
66. foreign aid ; 대외 원조, 외국 원조 [본문으로]
67. counter ; 2. [타동사][VN] (무엇의 악영향에) 대응하다 ; 유의어 counteract [본문으로]
68. lavish ; 1. 아끼지 않는, 후한(generous) ((of, in)) ;; 2. 낭비벽이 있는, 헤픈, 사치스러운 ;; 3. 풍부한, 충분한, 넉넉한(abundant); 너무 많은, 남아도는, 무절제한 [본문으로]
69. reset ; (-set; -set·ting) [타동사] 1. …을 다시 놓다, 〔활자〕를 다시 짜다, 〔보석〕을 고쳐 끼우다; 〔머리〕를 다시 세트하다; 〔시계 따위〕를 조정하다. [본문으로]
70. state-backed ; 국가, 정부의 지원을 받는 [본문으로]
71. blur ; [타동사] 희미하게 하다; (눈을) 흐리게 하다; (책·원고 따위에) 잉크를 번지게 하다, 더럽히다 ;; [VERB] When a thing blurs or when something blurs it, you cannot see it clearly because its edges are no longer distinct [본문으로]
72. commercial interests ; 사업 관계자, 상업계 [본문으로]
73. national interest ; 국익 [본문으로]
74. subsidize ; [타동사][VN] 보조금을 주다 ; 유의어 fund ;; [VERB] If a government or other authority subsidizes something, they pay part of the cost of it. [본문으로]
75. dual-use technology ; (군사) 이중용도 기술 ▶민수용이나 군수용으로 사용 가능한 이중용도 기술 ;; (군사) 민군 겸용기술(民軍兼用技術) ;; In politics and diplomacy, dual-use is technology that can be used for both peaceful and military aims. More generally speaking, dual-use can also refer to any technology which can satisfy more than one goal at any given time. Thus, expensive technologies which would otherwise only benefit civilian commercial interests can also be used to serve military purposes when not otherwise engaged such as the Global Positioning System. ;; Dual use goods are products and technologies normally used for civilian purposes but which may have military applications [본문으로]
76. skew ; 1. [타동사][VN] 왜곡하다 ;; [VERB] If something is skewed, it is changed or affected to some extent by a new or unusual factor, and so is not correct or normal. [본문으로]
77. state-directed ; 정부주도적인 [본문으로]
78. commercial clout ; 상업적 영향력 [본문으로]
79. foreign policy ; 외교 정책[방침] [본문으로]
80. transparency ; 3. [U] (변명·거짓말 따위가) 속이 빤히 들여다보임[명백함] ;; 4. [U] (상황·주장 따위의) 명료성 [본문으로]
81. funding ; [U] 자금; 자금 제공[재정 지원] [본문으로]
82. political parties ; [명사] 정당 [본문으로]
83. signal ; [타동사] 3. (감정의견을 간접적으로) 표시하다[표하다] [본문으로]
84. disregard for ; …에 대한 무관심, 경시 [본문으로]
85. conventional/received wisdom ;; (대부분의 사람들이 가지고 있는) 사회적[일반적] 통념 [본문으로]
86. subtle ; 2. (사람·행동이) 교묘한, 영리한 ;; 4. (판단력 등이) 예리한[예민한] [본문으로]
87. consistent ; 1. (호감) 한결같은, 일관된 ;; 4. (주장이나 일련의 생각들이) 일관성 있는 ; 반의어 inconsistent [본문으로]
88. dealmaking ; [명사] 성약, 거래 성립. ; 유의어 transaction, arrangement, agreement. [본문으로]
89. be pushed around ; 내둘리다, 휘둘리다, 남에게 쥐이다, 이용당하다 [본문으로]
90. meekly ; [부사] 온순하게 ;; 얌전하게, 참을성 있게; 기백 없이, 씩씩하지 못하게. [본문으로]
91. disavow ; [타동사][VN] (격식) (무엇에 대한 지식·책임을 공개적으로) 부인하다 ;; [VERB] If you disavow something, you say that you are not connected with it or responsible for it. [본문으로]
92. wrong-foot ; [타동사][VN] (英) (예상 밖의 행동으로 남을) 곤경에 빠뜨리다[곤란하게 만들다] ;; [VERB] If you wrong-foot someone, you surprise them by putting them into an unexpected or difficult situation. [본문으로]
93. count on ; ~을 믿다; ~을 확신하다 ; 유의어 bank on sth [본문으로]
94. rock the boat ; 평지풍파를 일으키다 ;; do something that might upset somebody/something, cause problems or change the balance of a situation in some way [본문으로]
95. starting point ; 1. ~ (for sth) (토론 등의) 출발점[기점] ;; 2. (여정의) 출발지 [본문으로]
96. disdain for ; …에 대한 경멸(감). [본문으로]
97. enshrine ; 1. 사당[신전]에 모시다[안치하다] ((in, among)) ;; 2. <기억 등을> 간직하다, 소중히 지니다 ((in)) ;; [VERB] If something such as an idea or a right is enshrined in something such as a constitution or law, it is protected by it. [본문으로]
98. compete with ; ~와 겨루다 [본문으로]
99. ruthless ; [형용사] (못마땅함) 사람·행동이 무자비한, 가차 없는, 인정사정없는 ;; [ADJ] [oft ADJ in n] If you say that someone is ruthless, you mean that you disapprove of them because they are very harsh or cruel, and will do anything that is necessary to achieve what they want. [본문으로]
100. extend one's influence ; 세력을 넓히다 [본문으로]
101. zero-sum ; [형용사] <게임·관계 등이> 쌍방 득실(得失)의 차가 무(無)인 [본문으로]
102. containment ; [U] (격식) 1. (좋지 않은 일의) 방지[억제] ;; 2. (다른 국가의 무력에 대한) 견제 ;; [NOUN] Containment is the action or policy of keeping another country's power or area of control within acceptable limits or boundaries. [본문으로]
103. cooperate ; [V](~ (with sb) (in/on sth)) 1. [자동사] 협력[합동]하다 ;; 2. [자동사] 협조하다 ;; [VERB] [intr] to work or act together [본문으로]
104. rivalry ; [C, U] (pl. -ries) ~ (with sb/sth) (for sth) | ~ (between A and B) (for sth) 경쟁 (의식) ;; [NOUN] Rivalry is competition or fighting between people, businesses, or organizations who are in the same area or want the same things. ;; 미국∙영국 [ˈraɪvlri] [본문으로]
105. commercially ; [부사] 상업적으로, 영리적으로 (보아); 통상상 [본문으로]
106. intertwine ;[주로 수동태로] 1. 뒤얽히다, 뒤얽다, 엮다, 엮이다 ;; 2. 밀접하게 관련되다 ;; [VERB] If two or more things are intertwined or intertwine, they are closely connected with each other in many ways. [본문으로]
107. security interest ; (법) 선취 특권(lien), 담보권 [본문으로]
108. press ; [타동사] 7. 〔남〕에게 (…을) 귀찮게 졸라대다, 간청하다[for]; 〔남〕에게 (…하도록) 강요하다[to do, into doing].; 유의어 URGE [본문으로]
109. -bashing ; ((연결형)) 「공격, 학대」의 뜻 ;; [COMB in N-UNCOUNT, ADJ] -bashing combines with nouns to form nouns or adjectives that refer to strong, public, and often unfair criticism of the people or group mentioned. [본문으로]
110. bolster ; [타동사][VN] ~ sth (up) 북돋우다, 강화[개선]하다 ;; [VERB] If you bolster something such as someone's confidence or courage, you increase it. [본문으로]
111. nurture ; 1. 양육하다(rear) ; 양성하다(train up) ; 교육하다, 보육하다(educate). ;; 2. (영양을 주어) 기르다(nourish). ;; [VERB] If you nurture something such as a young child or a young plant, you care for it while it is growing and developing. [본문으로]
112. protection against ; …로부터의 보호. [본문으로]
113. reap ; [자동사] 1. 베어들이다, 수확하다. ;; 2. 보답[결과]을 얻다. [본문으로]
114. lead to sth ; ~로 이어지다 ;; to result in a particular action or event; to force or persuade somebody to take a particular action [본문으로]