[Annotated] The global arms trade is booming. Buyers are spoiled for choice

Increased competition between suppliers means buyers have the upper hand^[각주:1]

Only a few months ago, Canadians were earnestly debating whether or not^[각주:2] the country's Liberal administration was right to go ahead with executing a $12bn contract to^[각주:3] deliver armoured vehicles to^[각주:4] Saudi Arabia. The government said it would, but acknowledged its critics' concerns by agreeing to adopt a version of^[각주:5] an international treaty that limits arms sales to rogues^[각주:6]. 

However, things took a different turn. It was the Saudis who plunged the deal into^[각주:7] uncertainty^[각주:8]. After Canada's foreign minister urged the release of some political prisoners on Twitter, the Saudi government declared that all new business with Canada was suspended^[각주:9]. This left Canadians unsure if^[각주:10] the kingdom still wants the arms deal^[각주:11]. And if the Saudis do walk away^[각주:12], plenty of other countries will be happy to supply armoured cars. "They could get their combat vehicles from Turkey, South Korea or Brazil," says Pieter Wezeman, a researcher at SIPRI, a Stockholm-based think-tank. 

In the United States, meanwhile, Congress has been pressing the administration to^[각주:13] implement the letter of a law that^[각주:14] would force countries to make a hard, instant choice between buying American or Russian weapons. But the Pentagon is hinting that America's huge diplomatic power does not quite stretch that far. Defence officials argue it would be better to accept that some countries will go on buying Russian weapons for a while, in the hope they will gradually kick the habit. 

Both these developments reflect the volatile^[각주:15] (and from a Western viewpoint^[각주:16], barely controllable^[각주:17]) state of the global arms market. Total demand is^[각주:18] growing, the number of sellers is rising and the Western countries that have dominated the business are less confident of shaping the playing field^[각주:19]. Above all, buyers are becoming more insistent on their right to^[각주:20] shop around^[각주:21]. For the likes of^[각주:22] India, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, "this is a buyer's market," says Lucie Béraud-Sudreau of the International Institute for Strategic Studies^[각주:23], a London-based think-tank. 

Speak softly and sell a big stick^[각주:24]

The numbers show that the global commerce in conventional weapons is^[각주:25] still dominated by the United States. But America feels strangely nervous about maintaining the role, and this year it has adopted a more aggressive sales posture^[각주:26]. Under a policy proclaimed in^[각주:27] April and mapped out in more detail^[각주:28] last month, American diplomats have been told to promote weapons sales more actively and speed up procedures for approving them. 

At first sight, American apprehensions seem puzzling. There are several ways to measure the arms market, but America comes out on top of all of them. SIPRI has studied the volume of cross-border^[각주:29] weapon transfers over the five years to December and compared them with the previous five years. 

The size of the world market rose by 10% between the two periods. In the more recent one, America's slice of this expanding pie was 34%, up from 30% in the previous five years. America and its five nearest rivals (in descending order^[각주:30] Russia, France, Germany, China and Britain), account for nearly 80% of total transfers. 

Britain, meanwhile, claims that last year it jumped to third place among global arms exporters, as measured by the value of their sales. According to the Defence and Security Organization, a government body, America bagged 53% of^[각주:31] the global business, its "highest-ever market share". This left 16% for Russia and 12% for Britain, double the share taken by^[각주:32] France. 

In part^[각주:33], the jumpiness in^[각주:34] Washington, DC, stems from^[각주:35] the entry to the market of^[각주:36] new competitors, especially China. In part it reflects new products and technologies where America will struggle to keep its lead. Both these challenges were highlighted by the appearance at last year's Paris Air Show of a Chinese military drone that looked very like the American unmanned aircraft that^[각주:37] have been used for assassinations, for example in Pakistan. Hitherto^[각주:38], America has been willing to share these powerful drones only with close European allies. A new policy will broaden the range of^[각주:39] customers and thus lessen the risk that^[각주:40] China will dominate a market that could soon be worth $50bn a year. 

China has long been better known as a buyer of arms^[각주:41], mainly from Russia, than as a seller. A big share of its arms deliveries have gone to close allies such as Pakistan. But it has enormously increased its capacity to make and sell its own weapons, including ships and submarines. 

Meanwhile, American arms-export policy has been a delicate balance between, on the one hand, seizing economic and geopolitical opportunity and, on the other^[각주:42], being careful not to share technologies which could destabilize war zones^[각주:43] or be used against the United States. 

But such caution can be counter-productive^[각주:44]. At a panel discussion in^[각주:45] Washington this month, a defence-industry advocate lamented that^[각주:46], because of America's technology-transfer^[각주:47] curbs^[각주:48], France had won from it a contract to sell airborne radar to India. "I like the French, but I like American industry even more," he grumbled^[각주:49]. 

In another Franco-American contest over^[각주:50] technology, France is finding it hard to sell more Rafale combat aircraft to its prize arms customer, Egypt, because the accompanying Scalp cruise missile incorporates American know-how^[각주:51], the transfer of which to third parties is barred. France has promised to develop its own technology, but Egypt may not have the patience to wait. Egypt's government has also been a keen purchaser of^[각주:52] Russian equipment, including aircraft and attack helicopters^[각주:53]. 

For defence-equipment manufacturers such as Britain and France, export sales matter ever more as a way to maintain their own industries. Britain's edge in military aviation^[각주:54] may depend on its sales to Saudi Arabia. And the Royal Navy's ambitious building programme got a boost when^[각주:55] Australia said it would buy British for a new range of frigates^[각주:56]. France wants to develop a new air-to-air missile^[각주:57], but only, as Florence Parly, the defence minister, put it, if it can get foreign customers. 

Such desperation adds to the frenzy of^[각주:58] market competition^[각주:59]. So does the utter indifference^[각주:60] Russia and China display towards their customers' human-rights policies. So too does the growth in the number of countries that have graduated from being mainly buyers of weapons and knowhow to sellers - Turkey, the Emirates and South Korea, for example. 

Japan, which boasts a huge defence industry^[각주:61], is entirely new to the market. It plunged in when^[각주:62] the government lifted restrictions on^[각주:63] arms exports in 2014. It competes, albeit^[각주:64] from a fairly weak position, with China for Asia-Pacific customers. 

As for Russia, SIPRI calculates that its share of the global market has slipped (to about 22%^[각주:65] in 2013-17). But it offers a blend of tried-and-tested hardware^[각주:66] and, to a few customers, superb know-how^[각주:67], especially in air defence. 

That creates a dilemma for^[각주:68] America, which hopes soon to sell weapons worth $6bn to India, but is dismayed by^[각주:69] that country's determination to acquire S-400 air-defence systems from Russia: missiles that could ward off potential threats from^[각주:70] China or Pakistan. Other countries intent on continuing to^[각주:71] buy Russian include Indonesia and Vietnam. 

Jim Mattis, America's defence secretary, has implored Congress not to^[각주:72] be too harsh with Russia's customers, so long as they pledge gradually to^[각주:73] reduce their reliance^[각주:74]. In a letter leaked in July to Breaking Defence, a specialist news service, he told a congressman: "We are faced with^[각주:75] a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to decrease Russia's dominance in key regions^[각주:76]." But that could only happen if America were free to sell its own weapons. For customers, that means that for the foreseeable future^[각주:77] they can keep both American and Russian weapons in their arsenals. 

It is telling that India has recently been admitted to the Missile Technology Control Regime, a group of countries which promises not to help pariah states^[각주:78] obtain ballistic missiles. That will make it easier for both America and Russia to sell long-range rockets to^[각주:79] India. The two arms-sales giants, who do not agree on much else, have welcomed India into the club. 

1. gain, get, have, etc. the upper hand ;; 우위를 점하다 ;; upper hand ; [the ~] 우세, 우위 [본문으로]
2. earnestly ; [부사] 진지하게, 진정으로 ;; [ADV] [ADV with v] If you say something earnestly, you say it very seriously, often because you believe that it is important or you are trying to persuade someone else to believe it. [본문으로]
3. go ahead with ; ~(계획, 일, 공부, 조사 등)을 추진하다 [본문으로]
4. armoured (英) (美 ar·mored) ; 1. (특히 군용 차량이) 장갑을 두른 ;; 2. 기갑 장비를 쓰는[갖춘] [본문으로]
5. adopt ; 2. [타동사][VN] (특정한 방식이나 자세를) 쓰다[취하다] ;; 4. [타동사][VN] (이름·국가·제도 등을) 택하다[차용하다] [본문으로]
6. rogue ; 2. 사기꾼(dishonest person) ; 악당, 불한당, 무뢰한(rascal, scoundrel). [본문으로]
7. plunge ; 2. …을 (어떤 상태에) 빠뜨리다, 몰입하게 하다; 무리하게 (…)시키다[into, in]. [본문으로]
8. uncertainty ; 1. [U] 불확실성; 반신반의 ;; 2. [C] 불확실한 것; 불확실한 상황 ;; [NOUN] Uncertainty is a state of doubt about the future or about what is the right thing to do. [본문으로]
9. suspend ; 2. [타동사] (공식적으로) 유예[중단]하다 ;; 3. [타동사] (공식적으로) 연기[유보]하다 ;; [VERB] If you suspend something, you delay it or stop it from happening for a while or until a decision is made about it. [본문으로]
10. unsure ; [명사 앞에는 안 씀] 1. ~ about/of sth | ~ (as to) whether, how, what, etc. 확신하지 못하는, 의심스러워하는 ;; 2. ~ (of yourself) 자신 없는 [본문으로]
11. arms deal ; a deal to provide military arms [본문으로]
12. walk away ; (힘든 상황·관계를 외면하고) 떠나 버리다 ;; [VERB] to leave, esp callously and disregarding someone else's distress ;; to leave a difficult or unpleasant situation in order to avoid it, instead of staying to deal with it [본문으로]
13. press ; 7. 〔남〕에게 (…을) 귀찮게 졸라대다, 간청하다[for]; 〔남〕에게 (…하도록) 강요하다[to do, into doing]. ;; 유의어 URGE [본문으로]
14. the letter of the law ; 법률[규정] 조문 (그대로의 정확한 자구) ;; the exact words of a law or rule rather than its general meaning ;; (singulare tantum) The strict interpretation of the law or rules. [본문으로]
15. volatile ; 2. (상황이) (금방이라도 급변할 듯이) 불안한 ;; 유의어 unstable ;; [ADJ] A situation that is volatile is likely to change suddenly and unexpectedly. ;; 미국식 [ˈvɑːlətl] 영국식 [ˈvɒlətaɪl] [본문으로]
16. viewpoint ; 1. ~ (on sth) (어떤 주제에 대한) 관점[시각] ;; 유의어 point of view ;; [NOUN] [usu with supp] Someone's viewpoint is the way that they think about things in general, or the way they think about a particular thing. [본문으로]
17. controllable ; [형용사] 지배[관리/통제/제어] 가능한 [본문으로]
18. total demand ; [명사] 총수요. [본문으로]
19. playing field ; (英) 놀이터, 경기장 ; 구기장(球技場)(ball park). [본문으로]
20. insistent ; [형용사] 1. ~ (on sth/on doing sth) | ~ (that…) 고집[주장]하는, 우기는 [본문으로]
21. shop around ; [VERB] to visit a number of shops or stores to compare goods and prices [본문으로]
22. the like(s) of ; (구어)…과 같은 사람[것] [본문으로]
23. International Institute for Strategic Studies ; [the ~] 국제 전략 연구소 ((略 IISS)) [본문으로]
24. big stick ; [the ~] 1. (정치적·군사적) 압력, 위압, 세력 과시 [본문으로]
25. conventional weapon ; 통상[재래식] 병기(비핵병기의 총칭). ;; <반의어> nuclear weapon [본문으로]
26. posture ; 2. [C, 주로 단수로] (특정 상황 등에 대한) 자세[태도] [본문으로]
27. proclaim ; (proclaims[-z]) [타동사] 1. …을 공언하다, 선언하다, 공포(公布)하다, 성명하다; …을 (…이라고) 선언하다. ;; 유의어 DECLARE [본문으로]
28. map out ; [동사] (계획을) 입안하다, 계획하다, 배치하다. ;; 유의어 plan, organize, draft. ;; to plan or arrange something in detail [본문으로]
29. cross-border ; [명사 앞에만 씀] 국경을 넘는 [본문으로]
30. in descending order ; "내림차순으로"라는 뜻입니다. ; (숫자의) 하향 순서 ((큰 수에서 작은 수로의)); (문자의) 역순 ((Z에서 A로의)); [컴퓨터] 내림차순 [본문으로]
31. bag ; 3. [타동사] (비격식) 골을 넣다, 득점을 올리다 ;; 4. [타동사] (英, 비격식) (선수를 쳐서) 차지하다 [본문으로]
32. double ; 1. 두 배[갑절]로 되다[만들다] [본문으로]
33. in part ; 부분적으로는; 어느 정도는 [본문으로]
34. jumpiness ; [명사] 뛰기; 흠칫함; 신경에 거슬림. [본문으로]
35. stem from ; (진행형으로는 쓰이지 않음) ~에서 생겨나다[기인하다] ;; 유의어 originate in, emanate from [본문으로]
36. entry ; 2. [U] ~ (to/into sth) 출입[입장/입국](할 수 있는 권리·기회) [본문으로]
37. unmanned ; (기계·차량 등이) 무인의 [본문으로]
38. hitherto ; [부사] (격식) 지금까지; 그때까지 ;; 미국식 [ˌhɪðərˈtuː] 영국식 [ˌhɪðəˈtuː] [본문으로]
39. broaden ; 2. (영향권이[을]) 넓어지다[넓히다] [본문으로]
40. lessen ; [동사] (크기·강도·중요도 등이[을]) 줄다[줄이다] ;; 유의어 diminish ;; [VERB] If something lessens or you lessen it, it becomes smaller in size, amount, degree, or importance. [본문으로]
41. buyer ; (opp. seller) 사는 사람, 사는 쪽, 소비자; 장물아비; 구매계원, 바이어 [본문으로]
42. on the one hand… on the other (hand)… ;; 한편으로는 …, 다른 한편으로는 … [본문으로]
43. destabilize ; [타동사][VN] (체제·국가·정부 등을) 불안정하게 만들다 ;; 참조 stabilize ;; [VERB] To destabilize something such as a country or government means to create a situation which reduces its power or influence. [본문으로]
44. counter-productive ; [형용사] 의도와 반대되는 결과를 초래하는, 역효과를 낳는; 비생산적인. ;; 유의어 prejudicial; unproductive. [본문으로]
45. panel discussion ; 공개 토론회 ((여러 대표자가 청중 앞에서 행하는 토론회))(cf. SYMPOSIUM) [본문으로]
46. lament ; 2. (깊이) 후회하다, 애석히 여기다, 안타까워하다 [본문으로]
47. technology-transfer ; (특히 선진국에서 개발 도상국에의) 기술 이전 [본문으로]
48. curb ; 2. 구속, 속박, 억제(check) ((to)) [본문으로]
49. grumble ; [자동사] 1. 투덜거리다, 불평하다 ((at, about, over)) [본문으로]
50. contest ; 1. (…을 겨냥한/…을 둘러싼) 경쟁, 경기, 시합, 콩쿠르[for /over]. [본문으로]
51. incorporate ; 2. …을 (구성 부분으로서 속에) 집어넣다, 편입하다[in, into]; 합병하다[with]. ;; 3. …을 포함하다, 함유하다. ;; 5. …을 혼합하다, 섞다[with]. [본문으로]
52. purchaser ; [명사] (격식) 구입[구매/매입]한 사람 ;; 참조 buyer [본문으로]
53. attack helicopter ; 공격용 헬리콥터. [본문으로]
54. military aviation ; 군용 항공. [본문으로]
55. get a boost from ; ~로부터 힘을 얻다 [본문으로]
56. frigate ; [명사] 소형 구축함, 호위함 ;; 미국∙영국 [ˈfrɪɡət] [본문으로]
57. air-to-air ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) 항공기에서 항공기로의, 공대공(空對空)의 [본문으로]
58. frenzy ; [C, 주로 단수로, U] (pl. -ies) ~ (of sth) 광분, 광란 ;; 참조 feeding frenzy [본문으로]
59. market competition ; 시장경쟁(市場競爭) [본문으로]
60. utter indifference ; 철저한 무관심 ;; 마이동풍 [본문으로]
61. boast ; 2. [타동사][VN] [진행형으로는 쓰이지 않음] 자랑할 만한 …을 갖고 있다, 자랑하다 [본문으로]
62. plunge in (plunge into something) ;; 1. (~ 안으로) 벌컥 뛰어들다[맹렬히 돌진하다] ;; 2. (하는 일에) 정신없이 빠져들기[뛰어들기] 시작하다 [본문으로]
63. lift ; 4. [타동사][VN] (제재를) 풀다[해제/폐지하다] [본문으로]
64. albeit ; [접속사] (격식) 비록 …일지라도 ;; 미국∙영국 [ˌɔːlˈbiːɪt] ;; [ADV] You use albeit to introduce a fact or comment which reduces the force or significance of what you have just said. [본문으로]
65. slip ; 5. [자동사][V] (낮은 수준으로) 떨어지다, 전락하다; 악화되다 [본문으로]
66. tried and tested/trusted (美 tried and true) ;; (英) (이미 써 봤기 때문에) 확실히 믿을 수 있는, 믿을 수 있다고 증명된 [본문으로]
67. superb ; [형용사] 최고의, 최상의, 대단히 훌륭한 [본문으로]
68. dilemma ; [명사] 딜레마 ;; 유의어 predicament [본문으로]
69. dismay ; [타동사][VN] 경악하게 만들다, 크게 실망시키다 ;; [VERB] If you are dismayed by something, it makes you feel afraid, worried, or sad. [본문으로]
70. ward off ; [동사] 피하다, 물리치다, 가까이 오지 못하게 하다. ;; 유의어 fend off, avert. [본문으로]
71. be intent on ; …에 열중하다, 여념이 없다 [본문으로]
72. implore ; (implores[-z]; implored; -plor·ing) …을[에게] 애원[탄원]하다, 간청하다[for, to do, that(節)]. ;; 유의어 beseech, beg [본문으로]
73. pledge ; 1. ~ sth (to sb/sth) (정식으로) 약속[맹세]하다 [본문으로]
74. reliance ; [U, sing.] ~ (on/upon sb/sth) 의존, 의지 ;; 유의어 dependence [본문으로]
75. be faced with[on] ; ~에 직면하다 [본문으로]
76. key ; [형용사] [주로 명사 앞에 씀] 가장 중요한, 핵심적인, 필수적인 ;; 유의어 critical, vital [본문으로]
77. foreseeable ; [형용사] 예측[예견]할 수 있는 ;; [ADJ] If a future event is foreseeable, you know that it will happen or that it can happen, because it is a natural or obvious consequence of something else that you know. [본문으로]
78. pariah state ; 국제사회에서 따돌림 당하는 국가 ;; international pariah or a global pariah, pariah nation [본문으로]
79. long-range ; [ADJ] [usu ADJ n] A long-range piece of military equipment or vehicle is able to hit or detect a target a long way away or to travel a long way in order to do something. [본문으로]