[Annotated] Xi Jinping has more clout than Donald Trump. The world should be wary

Do not expect Mr Xi to change China, or the world, for the better

American presidents have a habit of describing their Chinese counterparts^[각주:1] in terms of awe^[각주:2]. A fawning^[각주:3] Richard Nixon said to Mao Zedong that the chairman's writings had "changed the world". To Jimmy Carter, Deng Xiaoping was a string of^[각주:4] flattering adjectives^[각주:5]: "smart, tough, intelligent, frank^[각주:6], courageous^[각주:7], personable^[각주:8], self-assured^[각주:9], friendly". Bill Clinton described China's then president, Jiang Zemin, as a "visionary^[각주:10]" and "a man of extraordinary intellect^[각주:11]". Donald Trump is no less^[각주:12] wowed^[각주:13]. The Washington Post quotes him as saying that China's current leader, Xi Jinping, is "probably the most powerful" China has had in a century.

Mr Trump may be right. And were it not political suicide for an American president to say so, he might plausibly^[각주:14] have added: "Xi Jinping is the world's most powerful leader." To be sure^[각주:15], China's economy is still second in size to America's and its army, though rapidly gaining muscle^[각주:16], pales in comparison^[각주:17]. But economic heft^[각주:18] and military hardware^[각주:19] are not everything. The leader of the free world^[각주:20] has a narrow, transactional approach to^[각주:21] foreigners and seems unable to enact his agenda at home^[각주:22]. The United States is still the world's most powerful country, but its leader is weaker at home and less effective abroad than any of his recent predecessors, not least because he scorns the values^[각주:23] and alliances that underpin^[각주:24] American influence^[각주:25].

The president of the world's largest authoritarian state^[각주:26], by contrast^[각주:27], walks with swagger abroad^[각주:28]. His grip on^[각주:29] China is tighter than any leader's since Mao. And whereas^[각주:30] Mao's China was chaotic and miserably poor^[각주:31], Mr Xi's is a dominant engine of global growth. His clout^[각주:32] will soon be on full display^[각주:33]. On October 18th China's ruling Communist Party will convene a five-yearly^[각주:34] congress in^[각주:35] Beijing. It will be the first one presided over by^[각주:36] Mr Xi. Its 2,300 delegates^[각주:37] will sing his praises^[각주:38] to the skies^[각주:39]. More sceptical observers might ask whether Mr Xi will use his extraordinary power for good or ill.

World, take note^[각주:40]

On his numerous foreign tours^[각주:41], Mr Xi presents himself as an apostle of peace^[각주:42] and friendship, a voice of reason in a confused and troubled world^[각주:43]. Mr Trump's failings^[각주:44] have made this much easier. At Davos in January Mr Xi promised the global elite that he would be a champion of globalization, free trade and the Paris accord on climate change^[각주:45]. Members of his audience were delighted^[각주:46] and relieved. At least, they thought, one great power was willing to stand up for what^[각주:47] was right, even if Mr Trump (then president-elect) would not.

Mr Xi-s words are heeded partly because^[각주:48] he has the world's largest stockpile of^[각주:49] foreign currency to^[각주:50] back them up. His "Belt and Road Initiative" may be puzzlingly^[각주:51] named, but its message is clear - hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese money are to be invested abroad in railways, ports, power stations^[각주:52] and other infrastructure that will help vast swathes of the world^[각주:53] to prosper^[각주:54]. That is the kind of leadership America has not shown since the post-war days of the Marshall Plan in^[각주:55] western Europe (which was considerably^[각주:56] smaller).

Mr Xi is also projecting what for China is^[각주:57] unprecedented military power abroad. This year he opened the country's first foreign military base, in Djibouti. He has sent the Chinese navy on manoeuvres^[각주:58] ever farther afield^[각주:59], including in July on NATO's doorstep in^[각주:60] the Baltic Sea alongside^[각주:61] Russia's fleet^[각주:62]. China says it would never invade^[각주:63] other countries to impose its will^[각주:64] (apart from^[각주:65] Taiwan, which it does not consider^[각주:66] a country). Its base-building efforts are to support peacekeeping^[각주:67], anti-piracy^[각주:68] and humanitarian missions^[각주:69], it says. As for^[각주:70] the artificial islands with military-grade runways^[각주:71] it is building in the South China Sea, these are purely^[각주:72] defensive^[각주:73]. 

Unlike Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, Mr Xi is not a global troublemaker who seeks to^[각주:74] subvert democracy^[각주:75] and destabilize^[각주:76] the West. Still, he is too tolerant of^[각주:77] troublemaking by his nuke-brandishing^[각주:78] ally^[각주:79], North Korea. And some of China's military behavior alarms its neighbors^[각주:80], not only in South-East but also in India and Japan. 

At home, Mr Xi's instincts are^[각주:81] at least as illiberal as^[각주:82] those of his Russian counterpart^[각주:83]. He believes that even a little political permissiveness^[각주:84] could prove not only his own undoing^[각주:85], but that of his regime. The fate of the Soviet Union haunts him^[각주:86], and that insecurity^[각주:87] has consequences^[각주:88]. He mistrusts^[각주:89] not only the enemies his purges^[각주:90] have created but also China's fast-growing^[각주:91], smartphone-wielding^[각주:92] middle class^[각주:93], and the shoots of^[각주:94] civil society^[각주:95] that were sprouting when^[각주:96] he took over^[각주:97]. He seems determined to tighten control over^[각주:98] Chinese society, not least by enhancing^[각주:99] the state's powers of surveillance^[각주:100], and to keep the commanding heights of^[각주:101] the economy firmly^[각주:102] under the party's thumb. All this will make China less rich than it should be, and a more stifling place to^[각주:103] live. Human-rights abuses^[각주:104] have grown worse under Mr Xi, with barely a murmur of complaint from^[각주:105] other world leaders. 

Liberals^[각주:106] once mourned^[각주:107] the "ten lost years" of reform under Mr Xi's predecessor, Hu jintao. Those ten years have become 15, and may exceed 20^[각주:108]. Some optimists argue that we have not yet seen the real Mr Xi - that the congress will help him consolidate his power^[각주:109], and after that he will begin social and economic reforms in earnest^[각주:110], building on his relative success in^[각주:111] curbing corruption^[각주:112]. If he is a closet^[각주:113] pluralist^[각주:114], however, he disguises it well^[각주:115]. And alarmingly^[각주:116] for those who believe that all leaders have a sell-by date^[각주:117], Mr Xi is thought to^[각주:118] be reluctant to^[각주:119] step down in^[각주:120] 2022, when precedent^[각주:121] suggests he should.

Reasons to be fearful^[각주:122]

Mr Xi may think that concentrating more or less^[각주:123] unchecked power over^[각주:124] 1.4bn Chinese in the hands of one man is, to borrow one of his favorite terms, the "new normal" of^[각주:125] Chinese politics. But it is not normal; it is dangerous. No one should have that much power. One-man rule is ultimately a recipe for^[각주:126] instability in^[각주:127] China, as it has been in the past - think of Mao and his Cultural Revolution^[각주:128]. It is also a recipe for arbitrary behavior abroad^[각주:129], which is especially worrying at a time when Mr Trump's America is pulling back^[각주:130] and creating a power vacuum^[각주:131]. The world does not want an isolationist^[각주:132] United States or a dictatorship in China. Alas^[각주:133], it may get both.

1. counterpart ; [명사] (다른 장소나 상황에서 어떤 사람・사물과 동일한 지위나 기능을 갖는) 상대, 대응 관계에 있는 사람[것] [본문으로]
2. awe ; [U] 경외감, 외경심 [본문으로]
3. fawning ; [형용사] 아양부리는; 알랑거리는, 아첨하는 ;; 미국∙영국 [fɔ́:niŋ] [본문으로]
4. a string of ; 여러 개의, 일련의, 여러개의 [본문으로]
5. flattering ; 2. 아첨하는, 비위를 맞추는 3. 으쓱하게 하는 [본문으로]
6. frank ; [형용사] frank・er , frank・est * more frank도 흔히 쓰인다. (때로는 남을 불편하게 만들 수도 있을 정도로) 솔직한[노골적인] [본문으로]
7. courageous ; [형용사] 용감한 [본문으로]
8. personable ; [형용사] 사람이 (잘생기고 성격이 좋아서) 매력적인 [본문으로]
9. self-assured ; [형용사] 자신감 있는 [본문으로]
10. visionary ; 1. (호감) 예지력[선견지명] 있는 [본문으로]
11. intellect ; 1. [U , C] 지적 능력, 지력 [본문으로]
12. no less ; (흔히 반어적) 역시(놀람·감탄을 나타냄) [본문으로]
13. wow ; [타동사][VN] ~ sb (with sth) (비격식) (특히 공연을 통해) 열광시키다[큰 감동을 주다] [본문으로]
14. plausibly ; [부사] 그럴싸하게 , 정말같이. [본문으로]
15. to be sure ; (격식) (그것은) 틀림없다[분명하다] [본문으로]
16. muscle ; 3. [U] (요구나 주장에 따르도록 하는) 압력 [본문으로]
17. pale in comparison (to) ; (idiomatic) to appear unimportant in relation to something else.; To be nothing in comparison to, 2nd rate ; ~앞에서 무색해지다, ~에 비해 못하다 ;; 참고 ; pale beside, pale before, pale in comparison with [본문으로]
18. heft ; [U] 1. 무게, 중량 2. [미·구어] 중요성; 세력, 영향력 3. [the ~] [고어] 대부분; 주요부, 요점 [본문으로]
19. military hardware ; 무기, 군사장비 [본문으로]
20. free world ; [the ~; 종종 F- W-] (공산 세계와 대비된) 자유세계, 자유진영 [본문으로]
21. transactional ; [형용사] 업무[거래]의; 업무적인. [본문으로]
22. enact ; 1. [흔히 수동태로] (법률) (법을) 제정하다 3. [타동사][VN] be enacted (격식) 일어나다, 벌어지다 [본문으로]
23. scorn ; 1. [타동사][VN] 경멸[멸시]하다 2. (격식) (멸시하여) 거절하다[퇴짜 놓다] [본문으로]
24. underpin ; (-nn-), [vn] 1. (격식) (주장 등을[의]) 뒷받침하다[근거를 대다] [본문으로]
25. influence ; 2. [U] ~ (over sb/sth) 영향력 [본문으로]
26. authoritarian state ; a government that concentrates political power in an authority not responsible to the people [본문으로]
27. by contrast ; 1. (《앞 문장을 받아》) 그에 반해서, 그와 대조적으로 2. …와 대조하여, …에 비해서[with] [본문으로]
28. walk with (a) swagger ; 거들먹거리면서 걷다 [본문으로]
29. grip ; 2. CONTROL/POWER | [sing.] ~ (on sb/sth) 통제, 지배 [본문으로]
30. whereas ; 1. (두 가지 사실을 비교・대조할 때 씀), ~하지만, ~한 반면에 [본문으로]
31. miserably ; 1. 비참하게, 불쌍하게; 초라하게 2. 비참할 만큼; 형편없이, 지독히 [본문으로]
32. clout ; 1. [U] 영향력 ;; 미국∙영국 [klaʊt] [본문으로]
33. be on full display ; 적나라하게, 완전히 공개되다, 드러나다, ~로 가득하다, [본문으로]
34. five-yearly ; 5년에 한번, 5년마다 [본문으로]
35. convene ; (격식) 1. [타동사][VN] (회의 등을) 소집하다 [본문으로]
36. preside over ; …의 사회를 보다. [본문으로]
37. delegate ; [명사] (집단의 의사를 대표하는) 대표(자) ;; 명사 [|delɪgət] 동사 [|delɪgeɪt] [본문으로]
38. sing one's praises ; 칭찬하다 [본문으로]
39. to the skies[sky] ; 한껏, 몹시, 매우 높이, 크게 [본문으로]
40. take not e ; (~에) 주목하다 [본문으로]
41. numerous ; [형용사] (격식) 많은 [본문으로]
42. apostle of peace ; 평화의 사도 [본문으로]
43. troubled ; 2. (장소・상황・시기가) 문제가 많은, 힘든 [본문으로]
44. failing ; [명사] 결점; 결함 [본문으로]
45. accord ; [명사] (기관・국가 간의 공식적인) 합의 [본문으로]
46. delight ; [타동사][VN] 많은 기쁨을 주다, 아주 즐겁게 하다 [본문으로]
47. stand up for ; [동사] …을 지지하다, 옹호하다; (결혼식에서) …의 들러리를 서다. ;; 동의어 ; support; serve as best man. [본문으로]
48. heed ; [타동사][VN] (격식) (남의 충고・경고에) 주의를 기울이다 [본문으로]
49. stockpile ; [명사] (많은) 비축량 [본문으로]
50. foreign currency ; [명사] 외국 통화[화폐], 외화(外貨). [본문으로]
51. puzzlingly ;[부사] 어찌할 바를 모르며 ; 당혹스럽게. [본문으로]
52. power station ; [명사] 발전소 [본문으로]
53. swathe ; (swath / swɑ:θ ; 美 swɑːθ /), (또한 격식) 1. <풀・농작물 등을 베어 낸 기다란 띠 모양의 땅> 2. <기다란 띠 모양의 것・지역> [본문으로]
54. prosper ; [자동사][V] 번영[번창/번성]하다 [본문으로]
55. the Marshall Plan ; [the ~] 마샬 안(案) ((미국 국무장관 G.C. Marshall의 의한 유럽 부흥 계획(1948-52)(European Recovery Program))) [본문으로]
56. considerably ; [부사] (격식) 많이, 상당히 [본문으로]
57. project ; 1. PLAN | [타동사][VN] [주로 수동태로] 계획[기획]하다 [본문으로]
58. manoeuvre ; 3. [pl.] manoeuvres (대규모) 군사[기동] 훈련 ;; be on manoeuvres ; 군사훈련중이다 [본문으로]
59. afield ; 부사-형용사 1. ([P]) <농부가> 들에, <군대가> 싸움터에 2. ([P]) 집[고향]에서 멀리 떨어져; 정상을 벗어나 [본문으로]
60. doorstep ; 명사 1. 문간(의 계단) [본문으로]
61. alongside ; 전치사 1. …옆에, 나란히 2. …와 함께; …와 동시에 [본문으로]
62. fleet ; 1. [C] 함대 2. [C] 선단(船團) 3. [sing.] the fleet (한 국가의) 전 해군 함대, 해군력 [본문으로]
63. invade ; (참고: invasion , invasive) 1. (군사적으로) 침입[침략]하다, 쳐들어가다[오다] [본문으로]
64. impose one's will (on) ; (…에 대한) 자신의 뜻을 강요하다. [본문으로]
65. apart from ; 전치사 1. …외에는, …을 제외하고 ;; (또한 a'side from 특히 美) [본문으로]
66. consider ; 2. ~ sb/sth (as) sth (~을 ~로) 여기다[생각하다] [본문으로]
67. peacekeeping ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) 평화 유지의 [본문으로]
68. anti-piracy ; 해적 퇴치, 소탕 [본문으로]
69. humanitarian mission ; 외교적 임무, 인도주의적 임무 [본문으로]
70. as for ; ~에 대해서 말하자면, …에 관해 말하면. [본문으로]
71. runway ; 명사 1. 활주로 [본문으로]
72. purely ; [부사] 순전히, 전적으로, 오직 [본문으로]
73. defensive ; 1. 방어[수비]의 ;; 참고 ; offensive [본문으로]
74. seek to ; ~하도록 시도, 추구하다 [본문으로]
75. subvert ; (격식) 1. [타,자동사][VN, V] (체제를) 전복시키다 2. [타동사][VN] (믿음을) 뒤엎으려 하다 [본문으로]
76. destabilize ; [타동사][VN] (체제・국가・정부 등을) 불안정하게 만들다 ;; 참고 ; stabilize [본문으로]
77. be tolerant of ; …을 견뎌 내다, …을 관용하다, ~에 내성이 있다, 관대하다 [본문으로]
78. brandish ; [타동사][VN] (특히 무기를) 휘두르다 [본문으로]
79. 명사(pl. -ies) 1. [C] 동맹국 2. [C] (특히 정치적) 협력자 [본문으로]
80. alarm ; 1. 불안하게[두렵게] 만들다 [본문으로]
81. instinct ; [U , C] 1. ~ (for sth/for doing sth) | ~ (to do sth) 본능; 타고난 소질 [본문으로]
82. illiberal ; [형용사] (격식) 자유를 제한하는 [본문으로]
83. counterpart ; [명사] (다른 장소나 상황에서 어떤 사람・사물과 동일한 지위나 기능을 갖는) 상대, 대응 관계에 있는 사람[것] [본문으로]
84. permissiveness ; [명사] 허용됨 ; 관대함 , 자유방임적임. [본문으로]
85. undoing ; [sing.] 실패의 원인 [본문으로]
86. haunt ; 3. (오랫동안) 계속 문제가 되다[괴롭히다] [본문으로]
87. insecurity ; 1. [U] 불안(감), 확신이 없음; 불안정, 위험 2. 불안정[불확실]한 것 [본문으로]
88. consequence ; 1. [C] ~ (for sb/sth) (발생한 일의) 결과 [본문으로]
89. mistrust ; [타동사][VN] 신뢰하지 않다, 불신하다 [본문으로]
90. purge ; [명사] (조직에서 사람을, 흔히 폭력적인 방법으로) 제거[숙청] [본문으로]
91. fast-growing ; [형용사] 빨리 성장하는 [본문으로]
92. wield ; 2. (무기・도구를) 휘두르다[들다] [본문으로]
93. middle class ; [C+sing./pl. v.] 중산층 ;; 참고 ; upper class, working class [본문으로]
94. shoot ; 1. PLANT | (새로 돋아난) 순[싹] [본문으로]
95. civil society ; [명사] 시민 사회; 문명 사회. [본문으로]
96. sprout ; 2. (무엇이, 특히 많은 수로) 생기다[나타나다] [본문으로]
97. take over (from sb) ; (~로부터) (~을) 인계받다 [본문으로]
98. tighten[strengthen] the control (of / over) ; 통제를 강화하다 [본문으로]
99. enhance ; [타동사][VN] (좋은 점・가치・지위를) 높이다[향상시키다] [본문으로]
100. surveillance ; [U] 감시 [본문으로]
101. commanding height ; 전망좋은 고지, 지배권 [본문으로]
102. firmly ; [부사] 단호히, 확고히 [본문으로]
103. stifling ; 1. <공기 등이> 숨 막힐 듯한, 답답한 2. <예절 등이> 딱딱하고 거북한 [본문으로]
104. abuse ; 2. [U , pl.] 학대 [본문으로]
105. a murmur of complaint ; 투덜거림 [본문으로]
106. liberal ; 2. POLITICS | 진보주의자 [본문으로]
107. mourn ; [동사] ~ (for sb/sth) (사람의 죽음을) 애도[슬퍼]하다; 애석해[애통해] 하다 [본문으로]
108. exceed ; (격식) 1. (특정한 수・양을) 넘다[초과하다/초월하다] [본문으로]
109. consolidate ; 1. (세력 있는 위치・성공의 가능성 등을) 굳히다[강화하다] [본문으로]
110. in earnest (about) ; (…에 대해) 진지하게, 본격적으로. [본문으로]
111. relative ; 3. [명사 앞에만 씀] 비교적인; 상대적인 ;; 참고 ; absolute [본문으로]
112. curb ; [타동사][VN] (특히 좋지 못한 것을) 억제[제한]하다 [본문으로]
113. closet ; [형용사] [명사 앞에만 씀] 드러나지 않은, 본인만 알고 있는 [본문으로]
114. pluralist ; 1. 다원주의자 [본문으로]
115. disguise ; 2. 위장하다, 숨기다 [본문으로]
116. alarmingly ; [형용사] 놀랄 만큼 [본문으로]
117. sell-by-date ; [명사] (상품의) 유통 기한 ;; (美 'pull date) [본문으로]
118. be thought to ; ~라고 생각된다, 평가된다, 추정된다 [본문으로]
119. be reluctant to ; ~을 주저하다, 망설이다, 꺼리다 [본문으로]
120. step down[aside] ; (요직 등에서) 물러나다 [본문으로]
121. precedent ; 1. [C , U] (판결・공식적인 결정 등의) 선례, 판례 [본문으로]
122. fearful ; 1. ~ (for sb) | ~ (of sth/of doing sth) | ~ (that)… (격식) 걱정[우려/염려]하는 [본문으로]
123. more or less ; 거의 [본문으로]
124. unchecked ; [형용사] (유해한 것이 더 악화되지 않도록) 억제하지[손을 쓰지] 않고 놔 둔 [본문으로]
125. new normal ; (경제) 뉴노멀, '시대 변화에 따라 새롭게 떠오르는 기준 또는 표준'을 뜻하는 말 [본문으로]
126. recipe ; 2. ~ for sth (특정 결과를 가져올 듯한) 방안[비결] ;; 미국∙영국 [|resəpi] [본문으로]
127. instability ; (pl. -ies), [U , C], [주로 복수로], (참고: unstable) 1. 불안정 [본문으로]
128. Cultural Revolution ; [the ~] (중국의) 문화 대혁명(1966-71) [본문으로]
129. arbitrary ; 1. (행동・결정・법칙 등이) 임의적인, 제멋대로인 2. (격식) 전횡을 일삼는, 독단적인 [본문으로]
130. pull back ; 1. 군대가 후퇴하다[물러나다] 2. (하려던 일을) 취소하다 [본문으로]
131. power vacuum ; [명사] 힘[세력]의 공백 지대 [본문으로]
132. isolationist ; [명사, 형용사] 고립주의자(적인) [본문으로]
133. alas ; [감탄사] (옛글투 또는 문예체) 아아(슬픔・유감을 나타내는 소리) [본문으로]