Italy's plan to join China's Belt and Road Initiative ruffles feathers

At home and abroad

China's president Xi Jinping, is due to land in Rome on March 21st. His itinerary will include a state dinner, accompanied by a performance by Andrea Bocelli, an Italian opera star. Even more enjoyable for Mr Xi will be welcoming Italy into his "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI), a programme of infrastructure projects that spans Eurasia, the Middle East and Africa. Italy's prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, hopes the planned agreement, due to be signed on March 23rd, will boost Italian exports to China. But the accord has caused consternation both within his government and among Italy's traditional allies. 

The BRI is China's project to create a modern-day Silk Road, the ancient network of trade routes which connected east and west. Billions of dollars have been invested since it was launched in 2013 across more than 60 countries, in disparate infrastructure projects including railways, roads and ports. Some estimates of the total investment over the coming years run to $1trn or more. 

Italy's government last summer launched a "Task Force China" to develop a national strategy to strengthen Italy's economic and trade relations with China and guarantee Italy a "position of leadership in Europe". Stefano Manzocchi, a professor of international economics at Rome's LUISS University, says Italy has "a clear interest" in participating. As one of Europe's biggest manufacturing exporters, Italy will benefit from increased trade between China and Europe "by definition", he says. But, he concedes, "the Chinese are incredible negotiators so [Italy] will have to be careful."

A dozen EU members have signed memoranda with China. But Italy would be the first G7 country to join the fray. The agreement is not a contract, but its symbolism is nevertheless important. It comes at a time when the BRI is facing a backlash, the EU is trying to forge a more coordinated approach to its dealings with China and there is heightened tension between China and America. The White House National Security Council denounced the planned accord, tweeting that it "lends legitimacy to China's predatory approach to investment and will bring no benefits to the Italian people". 

Lucrezia Poggetti of the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a German think-tank, suggests Italy is taking a "big political risk for little economic gain". The memorandum is unlikely to guarantee Italian firms access to BRI projects or specific investments, and Europe's largest exporters to China - Germany and France - have not signed similar accords. Rather, says Ms Poggetti, the agreement serves Mr Xi's purposes, conferring credibility at time when his signature policy is facing criticism for creating debt traps in some of the countries in which it invests. 

The issue has become yet another point of contention within Italy's coalition government. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement is keen to move ahead. The national Northern League is concerned that cosying up to China^[각주:1] puts its alliance with America at risk. 

As Mr Xi signs his memorandum, he may glimpse another division, over an existing infrastructure project. A project is planned for the same day against a partly completed high-speed rail link between Turin in northern Italy and Lyon in France. Debate continues to rage within the government between the League, which favours it, and the Five Star Movement, which does not. 

Of all these various "ticking bombs" threatening to blow apart Italy's coalition government, says Francesco Galietti of Policy Sonar, a political-risk consultancy, the biggest is the next budget in November. For now, both sides are focused on sticking together at least until May's European parliamentary elections are over. 

1. cosy up to ; (특히 자기에게 쓸모가 있을 것 같은 사람에게) 친하게 굴다 ;; 1. To come physically close to, using body language in an attempt to persuade another (often hesitant) party to snuggle or embrace. ;; 2. (by extension) To form a relationship with some one or some thing for the purpose of obtaining some benefit. [본문으로]