[Annotated] The vote that could wreck the European Union

^[각주:1]

Why the French presidential election will have consequences far beyond its borders

It has been many years since France last had a revolution, or even a serious attempt at reform. Stagnation, both political and economic, has been the hallmark of^[각주:2] a country where little has changed for decades, even as power has rotated between^[각주:3] the established parties of left and right. 

Until now. This year's presidential election, the most exciting in living memory^[각주:4], promises an upheaval^[각주:5]. The Socialist and Republican parties, which have held power since the founding of the Fifth Republic^[각주:6] in 1958, could be eliminated in the first round of a presidential ballot on April 23rd. French voters may face a choice between two insurgent candidates^[각주:7]: Marine Le Pen, the charismatic leader of the national Front, and Emmanuel Macron, the upstart^[각주:8] leader of a liberal movement, En Marche! (One the Move!), which he founded only last year.

The implications of these insurgencies are hard to exaggerate. They are the clearest example yet of a global trend: that the old divide^[각주:9] between left and right is growing less important than a new one between open and closed. The resulting^[각주:10] realignment^[각주:11] will have reverberations^[각주:12] far beyond France's borders. It could revitalize^[각주:13] the European Union, or wreck^[각주:14] it.

Les Miserables 

The revolution's proximate cause^[각주:15] is voters' fury at the uselessness^[각주:16] and self-dealing^[각주:17] of their ruling class^[각주:18]. The Socialist president, Francois Hollande, is so unpopular that he is not running for re-election. The established opposition, the center-right Republican party, saw^[각주:19] its chances sink on March 1st when its standard-bearer^[각주:20], Francois Fillon, revealed that he was being formally investigated for paying his wife and children nearly €1m ($1.05m) of public money^[각주:21] for allegedly^[각주:22] fake jobs. Mr Fillon did not withdraw from^[각주:23] the race, despite having promised to do so. But his chances of winning are dramatically weakened.

Further fueling^[각주:24] voters' anger is anguish at^[각주:25] the state of France. One poll last year found that French people are the most pessimistic on Earth, with 81% grumbling that^[각주:26] the world is getting worse and only 3% saying that it is getting better. Much of that gloom is economic. France's economy has long been sluggish^[각주:27]; its vast state, which absorbs^[각주:28] 57% of GDP, has sapped^[각주:29] the country's vitality^[각주:30]. A quarter of French youths are unemployed. Of those who^[각주:31] have jobs, few can find permanent ones of the sort their parents enjoyed. In the face of high taxes and heavy regulation those with entrepreneurial^[각주:32] vim^[각주:33] have long headed abroad, often to London. But the malaise^[각주:34] goes well beyond stagnant living standards^[각주:35]. Repeated terrorist attacks have jangled nerves^[각주:36], forced citizens to live under a state of emergency^[각주:37] and exposed deep cultural rifts^[각주:38] in the country with Europe's largest Muslim community.

Many of these problems have built up over decades, but neither the left nor the right has been able to get to grips with^[각주:39] them. France's last serious attempt at ambitious economic reform^[각주:40], an overhaul^[각주:41] of pensions^[각주:42] and social security^[각주:43], was in the mid-1990s under President Jacques Chirac. It collapsed^[각주:44] in the face of massive strikes^[각주:45]. Since then, few have even tried. Nicolas Sarkozy talked a big game, but his reform agenda^[각주:46] was felled by^[각주:47] the financial crisis of 2007-08. Mr Hollande had a disastrous start, introducing^[각주:48] a 75% top tax rate. He was then too unpopular to get much done^[각주:49]. After decades of stasis^[각주:50], it is hardly surprising that French voters want to throw the bums out^[각주:51].

Both Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen tap into^[각주:52] that frustration. But they offer radically different diagnoses^[각주:53] of what ails^[각주:54] France and radically different remedies^[각주:55]. Ms Le Pen blames outside forces and promises to protect voters with a combination of more barriers and greater social welfare^[각주:56]. She has effectively distanced herself from^[각주:57] her party’s anti-Semitic^[각주:58] past (even evicting^[각주:59] her father from the party he founded), but she appeals to^[각주:60] those who want to shut out the rest of the world. She decries globalization as a threat to^[각주:61] French jobs and Islamists as fomenters^[각주:62] of terror who make it perilous to^[각주:63] wear a short skirt in public^[각주:64]. The EU is “an anti-democratic monster”. She vows to^[각주:65] close radical mosques, stanch the flow of^[각주:66] immigrants to a trickle^[각주:67], obstruct^[각주:68] foreign trade, swap^[각주:69] the euro for a resurrected^[각주:70] French franc and call a referendum on^[각주:71] leaving the EU.

Mr Macron’s instincts are the opposite. He thinks that more openness would make France stronger. He is staunchly^[각주:72] pro-trade^[각주:73], pro-competition, pro-immigration and pro-EU. He embraces cultural change and technological disruption. He thinks the way to get more French people working is to reduce cumbersome^[각주:74] labor protections^[각주:75], not add to them. Though he has long been short on^[각주:76] precise policies (he was due to publish a manifesto as The Economist went to press), Mr Macron is pitching himself as^[각주:77] the pro-globalization revolutionary^[각주:78].

Look carefully, and neither insurgent is a convincing outsider. Ms Le Pen has spent her life in politics; her success has been to make a hitherto^[각주:79] extremist party socially acceptable. Mr Macron was Mr Hollande’s economy minister^[각주:80]. His liberalizing program will probably be less bold than that of the beleaguered^[각주:81] Mr Fillon, who has promised to trim^[각주:82] the state payroll^[각주:83] by 500,000 workers and slash^[각주:84] the labor code^[각주:85]. Both revolutionaries would have difficulty enacting their agendas^[각주:86]. Even if she were to prevail^[각주:87], Ms Le Pen’s party would not win a majority in the national assembly^[각주:88]. Mr Macron barely has a party.

La France ouverte ou la France forteresse?

Nonetheless, they represent^[각주:89] a repudiation^[각주:90] of the status quo^[각주:91]. A victory for Mr Macron would be evidence that liberalism still appeals to Europeans. A victory for Ms Le Pen would make France poorer, more insular^[각주:92] and nastier^[각주:93]. If she pulls France out of the euro^[각주:94], it would trigger^[각주:95] a financial crisis and doom a union that, for all its flaws^[각주:96], has promoted peace and prosperity in Europe for six decades. Vladimir Putin would love that. It is perhaps no coincidence that Ms Le Pen’s party has received a hefty loan^[각주:97] from a Russian bank and Mr Macron’s organisation has suffered more than 4,000 hacking attacks.

With just over two months to go, it seems Ms Le Pen is unlikely to clinch^[각주:98] the presidency. Polls show her winning the first round but losing the run-off^[각주:99]. But in this extraordinary election, anything could happen. France has shaken^[각주:100] the world before. It could do so again.

1. stasis ; [U , C] (pl. sta・ses / -siːz /) (격식) 정체(停滯) [본문으로]
2. hallmark ; 1. (전형적인) 특징[특질] [본문으로]
3. rotate ; 2. (일을) 교대로 하다; (사람이) 순환[교대] 근무를 하다 [본문으로]
4. in / within living memory ; (시대적으로) 아직도 살아 있는 사람들이 기억하는 [본문으로]
5. upheaval ; [C , U] 격변, 대변동 [본문으로]
6. the Fifth Republic ; 제 5공화국 [본문으로]
7. insurgent ; [주로 복수로] (격식) 반란[내란]을 일으킨 사람 ;; 흐름상 "극단주의 성향" 을 의미 [본문으로]
8. upstart ; [명사] (못마땅함) 건방진 놈 [본문으로]
9. divide ; [주로 단수로] 1. DIFFERENCE | ~ (between A and B) (사람들의 집단을 구분하는) 차이점 [본문으로]
10. resulting ; 결과로 초래된 [본문으로]
11. realignment ; [명사] 재조정, 재편성. [본문으로]
12. reverberation ; 2. [pl.] reverberations (보통 나쁜 일이 많은 사람들에게 미치는) 반향[파문] [본문으로]
13. revitalize ; [타동사][VN] 새로운 활력을 주다, 재활성화시키다 [본문으로]
14. wreck ; 2. ~ sth (for sb) 엉망으로 만들다, 결딴내다 [본문으로]
15. proximate cause ; 가장 밀접한 원인, (해상보험) 근인 (=causaproxima). [본문으로]
16. uselessness ; [U] 쓸모없음, 무용[무효]성. [본문으로]
17. self-dealing ; [명사] 사적 금융 거래, ((특히)) 회사[재단] 돈의 사적 이용 [본문으로]
18. ruling class ; 지배계급, 지배층 [본문으로]
19. see ; 11. IMAGINE | [진행형으로는 쓰이지 않음] ~ sb/sth (as sth) (…일 것으로) 보다[예상하다] [본문으로]
20. standard-bearer ; [명사] (정치 단체・캠페인의) 지도자 [본문으로]
21. public money ; [명사] 공금(公金). [본문으로]
22. allegedly ; [부사] 주장한[전해진] 바에 의하면, 이른바 [본문으로]
23. withdraw ; 3. ~ (sb/sth) (from sth) (활동・조직에서) 탈퇴[기권]하다; 탈퇴[기권]시키다 [본문으로]
24. fuel ; 3. [타동사][VN] 부채질하다 [본문으로]
25. anguish at ; …에 대한 고뇌. [본문으로]
26. grumble ; 1. ~ (at/to sb) (about/at sb/sth) 투덜[툴툴]거리다 [본문으로]
27. sluggish ; [형용사] 느릿느릿 움직이는; 부진한 [본문으로]
28. absorb ; 7. MONEY/TIME/CHANGES | (특히 돈이나 시간을) 차지하다[잡아먹다] [본문으로]
29. sap ; [타동사][VN] (-pp-) ~ sth | ~ sb (of sth) 약화시키다, 차츰 무너뜨리다 [본문으로]
30. vitality ; [U] 활력 [본문으로]
31. of those who ; among those who [본문으로]
32. entrepreneurial ; [형용사] 기업가의, 기업가적인. [본문으로]
33. vim ; [U] (구식 비격식) 정력, 활기 [본문으로]
34. malaise ; [U , sing.], (격식) 1. (특정 상황・집단 내에 존재하는 설명・규명하기 힘든) 문제들[불안감] [본문으로]
35. living standard ; 생활 수준 [본문으로]
36. jangle ; 2. (신경이) 거슬리다[곤두서다]; (신경을) 거슬리게[곤두서게] 하다 [본문으로]
37. state of emergency ; [명사] 비상 사태, 긴급 사태 [본문으로]
38. rift ; 1. (사람들 사이의) 균열[틈] [본문으로]
39. get to grips with sth ; ~을[에] 이해하기[대처하기] 시작하다 ;; deal with (a problem or a subject) [본문으로]
40. economic reform ; [명사] 경제개혁 [본문으로]
41. overhaul ; [명사] (기계・시스템의) 점검[정비] ;; Noun [美|oʊvərhɔ:l] Verb [美|oʊvər|hɔ:l] [본문으로]
42. pension ; [명사] 연금; 생활 보조금, 수당 [본문으로]
43. social security ; 1. (wel・fare 美 , 英) (英 또한) 사회보장연금 / 2. Social Security (미국에서)사회보장제도 [본문으로]
44. collapse ; 4. FAIL | [자동사][V] (갑자기 또는 완전히) 실패하다 [본문으로]
45. strike ; 1. OF WORKERS | 파업 [본문으로]
46. reform agenda ; 개혁안 [본문으로]
47. fell ; 1. (나무를) 베어 넘어뜨리다 2. (문예체) (사람을) 쓰러뜨리다 [본문으로]
48. introduce ; 6. START | (새로운 것을[의]) 시작하다[시작이 되다] / 7. IN PARLIAMENT | (법안을) 제출하다 [본문으로]
49. get done ; [동사] 마치다(= get…finished) [본문으로]
50. stasis ; [U , C] (pl. sta・ses / -siːz /) (격식) 정체(停滯) [본문으로]
51. throw the bums out ; The literal meaning of bum is a lazy or worthless person. However, in this idiom, it's used metaphorically to refer to members of some group that are not performing up to expectations; it's often used to refer to ineffective politicians, or members of a sports team on a losing streak. Thus, we wish to get rid of those worthless members, and replace them with new ones (who we hope will do better) [본문으로]
52. tap into ; 2. …을 활용[이용]하다 [본문으로]
53. diagnosis ; [C , U] (pl. diag・noses / -siːz /) ~ (of sth) 진단 [본문으로]
54. ail ; 1. (격식) 괴롭히다 [본문으로]
55. remedy ; 1. 처리 방안, 해결[개선]책 [본문으로]
56. social welfare ; 사회 복지 [본문으로]
57. distance ; [타동사][VN] ~ yourself/sb/sth (from sb/sth) (~에) 관여[개입]하지 않다[않게 하다] [본문으로]
58. anti-semitic ; [형용사] 반유대주의의 [본문으로]
59. evict ; [타동사][VN] ~ sb (from sth) (주택이나 땅에서) 쫓아내다[퇴거시키다] [본문으로]
60. appeal to ; if something appeals to you, you like it or find it interesting and attractive [본문으로]
61. decry ; (de・cries , de・cry・ing , de・cried , de・cried) ~ sb/sth (as sth) (격식) 매도하다 [본문으로]
62. fomenter ; [명사] 조장[선동]자. [본문으로]
63. perilous ; [형용사] (격식 또는 문예체) 아주 위험한 [본문으로]
64. in public ; (특히 자기가 알지 못하는) 사람들이 있는 데서 [본문으로]
65. vow ; 맹세[서약]하다 [본문으로]
66. stanch ; 2. 억제하다, 없애다 [본문으로]
67. trickle ; 2. [주로 단수로] ~ (of sth) <소량・소수의 무엇이 조금씩 오가거나 이어짐을 나타냄> [본문으로]
68. obstruct ; 2. (일의 진행 등을) 방해하다 [본문으로]
69. swap ; 1. ~ (sth) (with sb) | ~ sth for sth (어떤 것을 주고 그 대신 다른 것으로) 바꾸다, (이야기 등을) 나누다 [본문으로]
70. resurrect ; 1. (사상・관례 등을) 부활시키다 [본문으로]
71. call a referendum ; 국민 투표를 실시하다 [본문으로]
72. staunchly ; [부사] 지조가 굳게; 충실하게; 견고하게. [본문으로]
73. pro-trade ; Supporting or favouring trade. [본문으로]
74. cumbersome ; 2. 복잡하고 느린, 번거로운 [본문으로]
75. labor protection ; (경영) 노동보호 [본문으로]
76. be short on ; ~가 부족하다, [본문으로]
77. pitch oneself as ; ~의 역할을 하다 [본문으로]
78. revolutionary ; (pl. -ies) 혁명가 [본문으로]
79. hitherto ; [부사] (격식) 지금까지; 그때까지 ;; [|hɪðər|tu:] [본문으로]
80. economy minister ; 경제 장관 [본문으로]
81. beleaguer ; 1. 포위(공격)하다; 둘러 싸다 2. 달라붙다; 괴롭히다 [본문으로]
82. trim ; 2. ~ sth (off sth) | ~ sth (off/away) (불필요한 부분을) 잘라 내다 [본문으로]
83. payroll ; 1. (한 기업의) 급여 대상자 명단 [본문으로]
84. slash ; 2. [흔히 수동태로,흔히 신문에서] 대폭 줄이다[낮추다] [본문으로]
85. labor code ; 노동법 [본문으로]
86. enact ; 3. [타동사][VN] be enacted (격식) 일어나다, 벌어지다 [본문으로]
87. prevail ; 2. ~ (against/over sth) (격식) (사상・견해 등이, 특히 투쟁・논쟁 끝에) 승리하다[이기다] [본문으로]
88. the national assembly ; [the ~] 국회; 프랑스 하원; (프랑스 혁명 당시의) 국민 의회 [본문으로]
89. represent ; 8. MAKE FORMAL STATEMENT | ~ sth (to sb) (격식) (의견・항의 등을) 제기하다 [본문으로]
90. repudiation ; 1. 거절; 부인 [본문으로]
91. status quo ; [sing.] (라틴어에서) 현재의 상황, 현상(現狀) [본문으로]
92. insular ; [형용사] (못마땅함) 배타적인, 편협한 ;; US [|ɪnsələr] UK [|ɪnsjələ(r)] [본문으로]
93. nasty ; 1. (아주 나빠서) 끔찍한, 형편없는 [본문으로]
94. pull sb/sth out (of sth) ; ~을 (~에서) 떼어 내다[철수시키다] [본문으로]
95. trigger ; 1. ~ sth (off) 촉발시키다 [본문으로]
96. flaw ; 1. ~ (in sth) (사물의) 결함 [본문으로]
97. hefty ; 2. (돈의 액수가) 많은, 두둑한 [본문으로]
98. clinch ; 1. 성사시키다, 이뤄 내다 [본문으로]
99. run-off ; 결선투표 [본문으로]
100. shake ; 9. BELIEF/IDEA | [타동사][VN] (신념・생각 등을) 흔들리게 하다[동요시키다] [본문으로]