[Annotated] Heat is causing problems across the world

Worryingly^[각주:1], such weather events may not remain unusual

Sodankyla, a town in Finnish Lapland just north of the Arctic Circle,^[각주:2] boasts an average annual temperature a little below freezing. Residents eagerly await the brief spell in^[각주:3] July when the region enjoys something akin to summer^[각주:4]. This year they may have wished for a bit less of it. On July 18th thermometers showed 32.1°C^[각주:5] (89.8°F), which is 12°C warmer than typical for the month and the highest since records began in 1908. But Sodankyla is not the only place that is sizzling^[각주:6]. 

Wildfires^[각주:7] have killed at least 80 people near Athens. Sweden has suffered a rash of forest fires^[각주:8], sparked by unusually hot and dry weather. Britain and the Netherlands look more parched than^[각주:9] they did in 1976, one of the driest summers on record^[각주:10]. Some 80,000 hectares of forest are^[각주:11] burning in Siberia. Japan has declared its heatwave^[각주:12] to be a natural disaster. On the night of July 7th, the temperature in downtown Los Angeles did not drop below^[각주:13] 26.1°C. That seems positively^[각주:14] nippy compared with^[각주:15] Quriyat in Oman, which recorded a 24-hour minimum temperature of^[각주:16] 42.6°C a few days earlier. 

Heatwaves bring problems, especially in the developing world. Crops are ravaged^[각주:17], food spoils^[각주:18] and workers become less productive. Studies have linked rising temperatures to^[각주:19] violent crime and civil strife^[각주:20]. And heat can kill on its own^[각주:21]. In 2003 more than 70,000 Europeans may have died as a direct result of^[각주:22] an infernal summer^[각주:23]. 

That was seen as a once-a-millennium heatwave at the time^[각주:24]. By comparison^[각주:25], notes Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute^[각주:26], outside of northern Europe the summer of 2018 looks unremarkable^[각주:27], so far, in terms of temperature. The Netherlands, for instance, can expect scorchers^[각주:28] every couple of years. Except, he adds, a century ago that might have been once every 20 years. A few years back, a team led by Peter Stott of Britain's Met Office^[각주:29] calculated that, by 2012, summers like the one in 2003 would be expected to occur not every 1,000 years but every 127. 

 

Hot times ahead

No consequence of global warming is as self-evident as^[각주:30] higher temperatures. Earth is roughly 1°C hotter today than it was before humanity started belching^[각주:31] greenhouse gases into the atmosphere^[각주:32] during the Industrial Revolution^[각주:33]. If this so-called thermodynamic effect were^[각주:34] all there was to it^[각주:35], temperatures now considered unusually hot would become more typical and those regarded as uncommonly cold^[각주:36], uncommoner still. But climate being a complicated thing, there is more to it. 

Weather patterns can change because the colder poles^[각주:37] warm faster than balmier lower latitudes^[각주:38]. As the thermal difference between^[각주:39] the two diminishes^[각주:40], so does the velocity of^[각주:41] the jet stream^[각주:42], a westerly wind^[각주:43] which blows at an altitude of around 10km^[각주:44]. That means the weather it carries can stay in place for longer^[각주:45]. Sometimes, it offsets^[각주:46] the thermodynamic effects, leading to cooler temperatures^[각주:47] than might be expected. Often, it amplifies them^[각주:48]. 

When and by how much is a matter of hot debate among climate scientists. It is hard to pin any particular heatwave, drought or flood on^[각주:49] the effects of man-made pollution^[각주:50]. Freak events happen; the highest temperature ever recorded on Earth was 56.7°C in Death Valley, California, but that was on July 10th 1913, when concentrations of carbon dioxide in^[각주:51] the atmosphere were much lower. 

By using clever statistics to compare the climate's actual behaviour with computer simulations of how it might have behaved^[각주:52] in the absence of human activity^[각주:53], researchers can calculate how mankind has made a particular weather event more likely. The first such study, co-authored by^[각주:54] Dr Stott in 2004, found that the likelihood of the 2003 European summer had doubled^[각주:55] as a result of^[각주:56] human activity. Since then similar "event attribution" research^[각주:57] has burgeoned^[각주:58]. A year ago Carbon Brief, a web portal, identified a total of 138 peer-reviewed papers^[각주:59] in the field^[각주:60], covering 144 weather events. Of 48 heatwaves, 41 contained humankind's imprint in the data^[각주:61]. 

More studies have appeared since then. World Weather Attribution, a website run by Dr van Oldenborgh and Friederike Otto of Oxford University, posts a new one practically every month. Besides scrutinizing past weather^[각주:62], many of the studies look ahead^[각주:63] - in particular at how the likelihood of^[각주:64] future extreme events changes depending on how seriously countries take their commitment in^[각주:65] Paris in 2015 to limit global warming to "well below" 2°C relative to^[각주:66] pre-industrial levels^[각주:67] (and better yet, to no more than 1.5°C). 

The picture that emerges is bleak^[각주:68]. On study, published in June by Andrew King of the University of Melbourne and his colleagues, found that the number of Europeans who can expect to witness a temperature above the current record, wherever they happen to live, would double from 45m today to 90m if the planet warmed by another 0.5°C or so on top of the 1°C since^[각주:69] the 1880s. If, instead of 0.5°C, it warmed by 1°C, the figure would rise to 163m. 

This looks even more alarming if you factor in humidity^[각주:70]. Human beings can tolerate heat with sweat^[각주:71], which evaporates^[각주:72] and cools the skin. That is why a dry 50°C can feel less stifling than^[각주:73] a muggy 30°C^[각주:74]. If the wet-bulb temperature^[각주:75] (equivalent to^[각주:76] that recorded by a thermometer^[각주:77] wrapped in a moist towel^[각주:78]) exceeds 35°C, even a fit, healthy youngster^[각주:79] lounging naked in the shade next to a fan^[각주:80] could die in six hours. 

At present^[각주:81], wet-bulb temperatures seldom exceed 31°C. In 2016 Jeremy Pal of Loyola Marymount University and Elfatih Eltahir of the Massachusetts Institute for Technology found that if carbon emissions continue unabated^[각주:82], several cities in the Persian Gulf, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai, could exceed wet-bulb levels of 35°C by the end of the century. A follow-up study reckoned that, by 2100, parts of South Asia, which is much more populous than the sheikhdoms^[각주:83] and a lot poorer, could suffer a wet-bulb level of 34.2°C every 25 years. 

The effects could be devastating. The World Bank has warned that rising temperatures and changing monsoons^[각주:84] could cost India 2.8% of GDP per person by 2050 and affect the living standards of^[각주:85] 600m Indians in areas identified as hot spots^[각주:86]. The global cost of productivity lost to heat has been estimated at $2trn by 2030. 

The toll on human lives is^[각주:87] hard to imagine. But at least people can learn from past mistakes. Thanks to better government responses, particularly in care for the elderly^[각주:88], in 2012 Europe survived a summer hotter still than 2003 with fewer casualties^[각주:89]. As Indians get richer more will be able to afford air-conditioning; even those in shantytowns^[각주:90] can paint their corrugated-iron roofs^[각주:91] white to reflect sunlight. If only the world could take in a similar lesson about^[각주:92] the importance of stopping climate change in the first place^[각주:93]. 

1. worryingly ; [부사] 귀찮아서, 성가셔서. [본문으로]
2. the Arctic Circle ; [명사] 북극권 한계선(북위 66도 33분) ;; 참고 ; Antarctic Circle [본문으로]
3. await ; [vn], (격식) 1. (…을) 기다리다 [본문으로]
4. be akin to ; ~과 같은 , ~과 흡사한, 유사한 [본문으로]
5. thermometer ; [명사] 온도계; 체온계 ;; 미국식 [θər|mɑ:mɪtə(r)] 영국식 [θə|mɒmɪtə(r)] [본문으로]
6. sizzling ; [형용사] 1. 타는 듯이 더운 [본문으로]
7. wildfire ; [NOUN] A wildfire is a fire that starts, usually by itself, in a wild area such as a forest, and spreads rapidly, causing great damage. [본문으로]
8. a rash of ; (사건 등이)빈발하는 [본문으로]
9. parched ; [형용사] 1. (특히 날씨가 더워서) 몹시 건조한[바싹 말라 버린] [본문으로]
10. on[upon] (the) record ; 1. 공표된, 공식으로 언명된 ;; 2. (출판물·서류 따위에) 기록되어 있는, 기록상의 ;; officially noted or written down [본문으로]
11. hectare ; [명사] ha 헥타르(땅 면적의 단위. 1만평방미터 또는 약 2.5에이커) ;; [NOUN] A hectare is a measurement of an area of land which is equal to 10,000 square metres, or 2.471 acres. [본문으로]
12. heat wave ; 1. 장기간의 혹서 ;; 2. [기상] 열파(opp. cold wave); 열기 [본문으로]
13. drop[fall] below ; ~(온도, 가격 등의 수치)이하로 내려가다 [본문으로]
14. positively ; 4. (의심의 여지없이) 분명히 [본문으로]
15. nippy ; 2. (비격식) (날씨가) 추운, 차가운 [본문으로]
16. minimum temperature ; [명사] (기상학) 최저 온도 [본문으로]
17. ravage ; [타동사][VN] [주로 수동태로] 황폐[피폐]하게 만들다, 유린[파괴]하다 ;; 미국∙영국 [|rӕvɪdƷ] [본문으로]
18. spoil ; 1. 나빠지다, 상하다, 못쓰게 되다(become spoilt) ; (특히 음식 따위가) 썩다, 쉬다(become putrid, go bad). [본문으로]
19. link ; [vn], [흔히 수동태로], [~ A to/with B | ~ A and B (together)] 3. 관련이 있다고 말하다, 관련[연결]시키다 [본문으로]
20. strife ; 1. [U] (격식 또는 문예체) (개인・집단 간의) 갈등, 불화, 다툼 ;; 미국∙영국 [straɪf] [본문으로]
21. on one's own ; 1. 혼자서, 단독으로(alone) ;; 2. 자력으로, 자기 책임 아래; 독립해서(independently) [본문으로]
22. as a direct result of ; ...에 대한 직접의 결과로서. [본문으로]
23. infernal ; 2. 악마[악귀]같은, 극악의, 흉악한(devilish, hellish). ;; 3. (구어) 지독한, 터무니없는, 몸서리나는(outrageous, confounded). [본문으로]
24. at the time ; at a particular moment in the past; then [본문으로]
25. by/in comparison (with somebody/something) ;; (~와) 비교해 보면[(~에) 비해], ~에 반해 [본문으로]
26. meteorological ; [형용사] 기상의, 기상학상의. [본문으로]
27. unremarkable ; [형용사] 특별할 것 없는, 평범한 ;; 남의 주의[흥미]를 끌지 않는 [본문으로]
28. scorcher ; 1. 몹시 뜨거운 것 ;; 2. [a ~] 타는 듯이 더운 날 ;; 3. [a ~] 통렬한 비난[비평] [본문으로]
29. the Met Office ; (영·구어) [the ~] 기상청 [본문으로]
30. self-evident ; [형용사] 자명한, 따로 증명[설명]할 필요가 없는 [본문으로]
31. belch ; 2. [자,타동사][V, VN] ~ (out/forth) (sth) (연기 등을 펑펑) 내뿜다; (펑펑) 뿜어져 나오다 [본문으로]
32. greenhouse gas ; [명사] 온실 가스(특히 이산화탄소) [본문으로]
33. Industrial Revolution ; [명사] 산업혁명 [본문으로]
34. thermodynamic (thermodynamical) ; [형용사] 1. 열역학의 ;; 2. 열량을 동력에 이용하는; 열발생의 ;; 미국∙영국 [θə́:rmədainǽmik(əl)] [본문으로]
35. that's all there is to it ; That's it. ;; You can't say anything else/more about it. ;; That's all you know. [본문으로]
36. uncommonly ; (격식) 1. 굉장히; 극도로 ;; 2. 흔치 않게, 드물게 [본문으로]
37. pole ; 1. [천문·지질·생물] 극(極); 극지; 북극성 [본문으로]
38. balmy ; (balmier ; -iest) 1. 향기로운, 향기를 풍기는(fragrant, aromatic). ;; 2. 상쾌한, 온화한, 보들보들한, 부드러운(refreshing, soft and mild) ; 마음을 달래는(soothing). [본문으로]
39. thermal ; [명사 앞에만 씀] 1. (전문 용어) 열의 ;; 미국식 [|θɜ:rml] 영국식 [|θɜ:ml] [본문으로]
40. diminish ; [자동사] 감소하다, 축소하다, 적어지다(become less, dwindle, decrease) ; 끝이 가늘어지다(taper). [본문으로]
41. velocity ; (pl. -ies), [U , C] 1. (전문 용어) 속도 [본문으로]
42. jet stream ; [NOUN] The jet stream is a very strong wind that blows high in the earth's atmosphere and has an important influence on the weather. [본문으로]
43. westerly ; 2. [주로 명사 앞에 씀] (바람이) 서쪽에서 불어오는, 서풍의 ;; 참고 ; west [본문으로]
44. at an[the] altitude of ; …의 고도로 [본문으로]
45. stay in place ; be stationary [본문으로]
46. offset ; [타동사] (~; ~·ting) 1. 차감 계산하다, 상쇄하다; <장점이> <단점을> 벌충하다 [본문으로]
47. lead to sth ; to result in a particular action or event; to force or persuade somebody to take a particular action [본문으로]
48. amplify ; 1. [타동사][VN] 증폭시키다 [본문으로]
49. pin ; 7. (…에게) …의 책임[죄]을 씌우다[on]. ;; 8. …을 명확하게 정의하다(down). [본문으로]
50. man-made ; [형용사] 사람이 만든, 인공[인조/합성]의 [본문으로]
51. carbon dioxide ; [U] (CO₂) 이산화탄소 [본문으로]
52. behave ; 4. [자동사][V + adv. / prep.] (전문 용어) (원래 지닌 성질에 따라) 행동[반응]을 보이다 [본문으로]
53. in the absence of ; …이 없을 때에; …이 없어서, …부재 시에. [본문으로]
54. coauthor ; …을 공동 집필하다. [본문으로]
55. double ; [자동사] 1. 두 배로 되다, 배가[배증]하다. [본문으로]
56. as a result of ; …의 결과로서 [본문으로]
57. attribution ; 1. [U] 귀착시킴, 귀속, 귀인(歸因) ((to)) ;; 2. (사람·사물의) 속성; (부속된) 권능, 직권 [본문으로]
58. burgeon ; [자동사][V] (격식) 급성장[급증]하다 ;; [VERB] If something burgeons, it grows or develops rapidly. [본문으로]
59. peer-review ; Peer review is the evaluation of work by one or more people of similar competence to the producers of the work (peers). It constitutes a form of self-regulation by qualified members of a profession within the relevant field. Peer review methods are employed to maintain standards of quality, improve performance, and provide credibility. In academia, scholarly peer review is often used to determine an academic paper's suitability for publication. Peer review can be categorized by the type of activity and by the field or profession in which the activity occurs, e.g., medical peer review. [본문으로]
60. identify ; 2. 찾다, 발견하다 [본문으로]
61. imprint ; 2. 흔적, 자국(impress); 인상(impression) [본문으로]
62. scrutinize ; [타동사][VN] 세심히 살피다, 면밀히 조사[검토]하다 [본문으로]
63. look ahead ; (~까지) (앞일을) 내다보다 ;; to think about what is going to happen in the future [본문으로]
64. likelihood ; 1. 그럴듯함, 참말 같음 ; 있을 법한 기색, 가망(probability). [본문으로]
65. commitment ; 3. [C] 약속(한 일); 책무 ;; 4. [U , C] ~ (of sth) (to sth) (돈・시간・인력의) 투입 [본문으로]
66. relative to ; 1. …에 관하여 ;; 2. …에 비례하여 [본문으로]
67. pre-industrial ; [형용사] 산업화 이전의; 산업 혁명 전의 ;; [ADJ] Pre-industrial refers to the time before machines were introduced to produce goods on a large scale. [본문으로]
68. bleak ; (bleak・er , bleak・est) 1. (상황이) 암울한, 절망적인 [본문으로]
69. on top of ; 1. ~의 위에 ;; 2. ~뿐 아니라[~ 외에] ;; 3. ~의 아주 가까이에 [본문으로]
70. factor in ; (전문 용어) ~을 고려하다[감안하다] ;; 동의어 ; factor sth into sth [본문으로]
71. tolerate ; 2. [타동사][VN] (불쾌한 일 등을) 참다 [본문으로]
72. evaporate ; 2. [자동사][V] (차츰) 사라지다[증발하다] [본문으로]
73. stifling ; 1. <공기 등이> 숨 막힐 듯한, 답답한 ;; 2. <예절 등이> 딱딱하고 거북한 [본문으로]
74. muggy ; [형용사] 날씨가 후텁지근한 [본문으로]
75. wet-bulb temperature ; [명사] (기상학) 습구 온도(濕球溫度) [본문으로]
76. equivalent to ; ~와 같음, 상응함 [본문으로]
77. thermometer ; [명사] 온도계; 체온계 ;; 미국식 [θər|mɑ:mɪtə(r)] 영국식 [θə|mɒmɪtə(r)] [본문으로]
78. moist ; 형용사(moist·er; moist·est) 1. 습한, 축축한, 습기를 머금은, 젖은[with]. ;; 동의어 ; DAMP [본문으로]
79. fit ; (fit・ter , fit・test), (참고: survival) [형용사] 1. HEALTHY | ~ (for sth) | ~ (to do sth) (특히 규칙적인 운동으로 몸이) 건강한[탄탄한] [본문으로]
80. lounge ; [자동사] 1. 어슬렁어슬렁 거닐다 ((around, along)) ;; 2. 빈둥빈둥 놀고 지내다(idle) ((about, around)) ;; 3. 축 늘어져서 기대다[눕다] ((in, on)) [본문으로]
81. at present ; 현재는, 지금은, 목하(now) [본문으로]
82. unabated ; [형용사] (대개 명사 앞에는 안 씀) (격식) 조금도 수그러들지 않는 ;; 미국∙영국 [|ʌnə|beɪtɪd] [본문으로]
83. sheikdom ; [명사] sheik의 지배지(관할지). ;; sheik ;; 1. (口, 美俗) (이슬람교국, 특히 아라비아의) 족장, 가장; 교주 ;; 2. [보통 sheik [ʃíː] 미남자; 오입쟁이, 여자를 호리는 사내 [본문으로]
84. monsoon ; 1. (동남아시아 여름철의) 우기[장마]; (이 시기의) 폭풍우, 장맛비 ;; 2. (동남아시아 지역의) 계절풍[몬순] ;; 미국식 [|mɑ:n|su:n] 영국식 [|mɒn|su:n] [본문으로]
85. living standard ; 생활 수준 ;; a standard of living [본문으로]
86. hot spot ; 3. (美) (불이 났거나 금방이라도 날 듯한) 아주 덥고 건조한 곳 [본문으로]
87. toll ; 5. [단수형, 문어·비유적] (사고·재해 따위의) 대가, 희생; 사상자수. [본문으로]
88. elderly ; [형용사] 연세가 드신(old보다 정중한 표현)사람들이 ;; [명사] [pl.] the elderly 연세 드신 분들, 어르신들 [본문으로]
89. casualty ; (pl. -ies) 1. [C] 사상자 ;; 2. [C] 피해자 [본문으로]
90. shantytown ; [명사] (美) (도시의) 판자촌 지역, 변두리의 빈민가, 달동네. ;; a town or section of a town or city inhabited by very poor people living in shanties, esp in a developing country [본문으로]
91. corrugated ; 물결 모양의, 골이 진 ;; [ADJ] Corrugated metal or cardboard has been folded into a series of small parallel folds to make it stronger. [본문으로]
92. take in ; 6. (듣거나 읽는 것을) 이해하다[기억하다] [본문으로]
93. in the first place ; 우선[먼저](무엇에 대한 이유를 말하거나, 무엇을 했어야 또는 하지 말았어야 했다는 말을 하는 문장의 끝 부분에 씀) [본문으로]