티스토리 뷰

Not as much as people think


The increasingly severe trade and other sanctions the UN has imposed on North Korea have the aim of getting its dictator, Kim Jong Un, to give up his nuclear weapons. That the sanctions were causing pain plausibly[각주:1] played some part in bringing Mr Kim to suspend his nuclear and missile testing[각주:2], and to extend a hand first to South Korea and then to the United States, at a summit in Singapore in June with President Donald Trump. Their continuation[각주:3], say Americans negotiating with North Korea, is essential to maintain pressure on Mr Kim to disarm


Yet even at the best of times, gauging the state of North Korea's economy[각주:4] is fiendishly hard[각주:5]. Much of it is closed, and the secretive state publishes almost no economic data. It is up to others to try to piece a picture together[각주:6]. Last week South Korea's central bank came up with a striking assessment that suggested sanctions were already biting hard last year, before the most serious ones had time to take effect[각주:7]


According to the Bank of Korea (BOK), North Korea's GDP shrank by 3.5% in 2017, the biggest contraction since 1997, when the country was in the throes of[각주:8] a terrible famine. The largest effects were observed in sectors that sanctions have directly targeted: mining declined by 11%, heavy industry by 10.4% and construction by 4.4%. Exports to China fell sharply


This is all consistent with[각주:9] sanctions causing serious economic pain. Most of North Korea's oil and much of its food comes through China[각주:10]. Kim Byong-yeon at Seoul National University says the figures are a reminder that the North's economy is more vulnerable to external shocks than might be expected for such a reclusive country[각주:11]. He expects the economy to shrink even more this year, as less revenue from exports hits imports and consumption


Yet the story may not be as straightforward as[각주:12] the BoK's numbers suggest. Some indicators[각주:13] commonly used to gauge what is going on[각주:14] do not obviously tally with[각주:15] its assessment[각주:16]. On the black market the North Korean won has barely moved against the dollar since Mr Kim came to power upon[각주:17] his father's death in late 2011. The unofficial price of fuel, tracked by NKPro[각주:18], a research outfit[각주:19], implies not great economic strain[각주:20]. And a stroll about[각주:21] Pyongyang, the capital, suggests that a building and consumption boom is under way[각주:22]


Other reasons to be sceptical include the central bank's crop estimates, which come from South Korea's rural development agency. Its insights about North Korean farm output are little better than anyone else's. Meanwhile, other data come from[각주:23] the national intelligence agency, which gets plenty of other stuff about North Korea wrong[각주:24]. Trade statistics are derived from[각주:25] data provided by China. Having signed on to UN sanctions, it has an interest in downplaying[각주:26] the extent of[각주:27] its economic relationship with North Korea. Last, official calculations make little allowance for[각주:28] the size of an informal economy from which[각주:29] ordinary North Koreans derive a vast chunk of their livelihoods[각주:30]


Besides, sanctions can be circumvented[각주:31], and the North is a master of subterfuge[각주:32]. Crabs caught in North Korean waters are sold to Chinese or Russian fishermen at sea or in mid-river. Dried seafood is smuggled out across[각주:33] a land border with China in the far north. To smuggle coal, North Korean ships turn off their transponders[각주:34] when leaving North Korean waters. They fake port calls in China or Russia, loitering outside ports to[각주:35] create the impression that[각주:36] they are loading there, before moving to another port to unload. The financial transactions associated with these sales[각주:37] are disguised through a welter of[각주:38] front companies abroad[각주:39]. Several thousand tonnes of North Korean coal, marked as Russian, made it to ports around[각주:40] Asia last year. Ship-to-ship transfers in[각주:41] the East China Sea or the Sea of Japan[각주:42] are another, albeit riskier[각주:43], ploy[각주:44]. American and Japanese spooks[각주:45] report 89 transfers of refined oil products[각주:46] between January and May this year, evading[각주:47] UN-imposed caps on fuel imports[각주:48]



Brotherly love[각주:49], again

More important than these tactics are shifting views in[각주:50] China. It is the North's biggest trading partner, and the sanctions regime[각주:51] has little bite without its full-hearted participation[각주:52]. Its diplomats at the UN continue to pay lip service to the sanctions[각주:53]. Yet the will to enforce them is flagging[각주:54] now that nuclear tensions on the Korean peninsula have eased[각주:55] and ties are improving. Following meetings between Mr Kim and Xi Jinping, China's leader, Chinese officials are welcome again in Pyongyang. Beijing has reportedly[각주:56] approved a plan by[각주:57] Liaoning province, adjacent to[각주:58] North Korea, to spend 600m yuan ($88m) on new roads on the North Korean side of the "friendship" bridge linking the two countries at Dandong[각주:59]. At his press conference following[각주:60] the Singapore summit, Mr Trump acknowledged that China was easing pressure on North Korea. China, he said, had monitored the border "maybe a little less... over the last couple of months, but that's OK" (putting him at odds with[각주:61] America's official, harder line). People on the Chinese side say trade and smuggling are much less hampered by[각주:62] officials than earlier in the year. Local officials have never liked the sanctions. Now, the authorities in Beijing either deem their enforcement[각주:63] less of a priority[각주:64], or are directing that they be flouted[각주:65]


In terms of time, effort and lost trade, any sanctions regime has costs for the enforcers[각주:66], says Andrea Berger at King's College, London. Last week China and Russia rebuffed an American request at[각주:67] the UN to step up[각주:68] enforcement of sanctions[각주:69]. South Korea has been asking for (and receiving) sanctions exemptions for[각주:70] its own engagement with the North[각주:71].


So the effectiveness of[각주:72] economic pressure may continue to wane[각주:73]. As it is, on July 22nd the Washington Post reported Mr Trump's frustration that little had come of a summit with Mr Kim that he did so much to hype[각주:74]. In follow-up meetings with their North Korean counterparts, administration officials have encountered no end of obfuscation[각주:75] and delay. Predictably[각주:76], in a tweet this week, the president denied the report. And on July 23rd a North Korea-watching[각주:77] website, 38 North, published satellite images suggesting that North Korea had begun to dismantle a key intercontinental[각주:78] missile launch site[각주:79]. If true, Mr Trump will surely boast that sanctions[각주:80] and his brilliant diplomacy are working. Even as[각주:81] Mr Kim maintains other sites and their missiles - and enjoys the benefits of a loosening sanctions regime


  1. plausibly ; [부사] 그럴싸하게 , 정말같이. [본문으로]
  2. suspend ; 2. (공식적으로) 유예[중단]하다 [본문으로]
  3. continuation ; 2. (중단 후) 계속, 재개; (이야기 등의) 계속, 속편(sequel) [본문으로]
  4. gauge ; 1. (특히 남의 기분・태도를) 판단하다[알아내다] ;; 2. [타동사][VN] (특수 기구를 써서) 측정하다 ;; 3. 추산[추정]하다 [본문으로]
  5. fiendishly ; [부사] (비격식) 극도로 [본문으로]
  6. piece ; [타동사] 1. 잇다, 깁다, 때우다 ((up)), 접합하다 ((up)), 결합하다 ((together)) ;; 2. <이야기·그림·이론 등을> (빠진 부분을 보완해) 완성하다 ((out)) [본문으로]
  7. take effect ; [동사] 효과가 나타나다, 효력을 나타내다; (법률이) 실시되다, 발효하다. ;; 동의어 ; produce a result; go into operation, begin to function. [본문으로]
  8. in the throes of something/of doing something ; 한창 ~을 하는 중에(특히 힘들거나 복잡한 일을 하는 중에) ;; throe ; [pl.] (특히 죽는 순간의) 극심한 고통 ;; 미국식 [θroʊz] 영국식 [θrəʊz] [본문으로]
  9. be consistent with ; ~와 일치하다, ~와 일관되다 [본문으로]
  10. come through ; to enter and cross a room, an area of land, a town, a country, etc.; to pass through something [본문으로]
  11. reclusive ; [형용사] 세상을 버린; 은둔한; 쓸쓸한, 적막한 [본문으로]
  12. straightforward ; 1. 간단한, 쉬운, 복잡하지 않은 [본문으로]
  13. indicator ; 1. (일의 현황・사정 변화 등을 나타내는) 지표 [본문으로]
  14. gauge ; 1. (특히 남의 기분・태도를) 판단하다[알아내다] ;; 2. [타동사][VN] (특수 기구를 써서) 측정하다 [본문으로]
  15. tally with ; …와 일치하다. [본문으로]
  16. assessment ; 1. [C] 평가(한 의견) ;; 2. [U] 평가 (행위) ; 참고 continuous assessment ;; 3. [C] 평가[사정] 액 [본문으로]
  17. come to[into] power ; 정권을 장악하다, 집권하다 [본문으로]
  18. track ; [타동사] 1-a. 추적하다, …의 뒤를 쫓다; 추적하여 잡다 ;; 1-b. (흔적 등을 더듬어) 찾아내다; …을 바짝 쫓아 잡아내다, 탐지하다 ((down)) [본문으로]
  19. outfit ; 4. [집합적] [구어] (사업에 종사하는) 일단(一團), 조직, 기업, 회사; (군)부대; 탐험단, 여행단; 공원(工員)의 일단 [본문으로]
  20. strain ; 1. WORRY/ANXIETY | [U , C] 부담, 중압[압박](감) ;; 2. PHYSICAL PRESSURE | [U , C] 압력, 압박 [본문으로]
  21. stroll ; [명사] (한가로이) 거닐기, 산책 [본문으로]
  22. be under way ; have started and be now progressing or taking place [본문으로]
  23. data ; pl. 1. [복수 또는 단수 취급] 데이터, 자료; (관찰·실험으로 얻은) 사실, 지식, 정보 ((on)) ;; 2. (컴퓨터) [보통 단수 취급] 데이터 ;; data를 복수 취급한 것을 확인 [본문으로]
  24. get sth wrong ; 1. (상황을) 오해하다 ;; 2. ~에 대해 실수를 하다 [본문으로]
  25. derive from sth ; (다른 무엇에서) 나오다[파생되다] ;; 동의어 ; be derived from sth [본문으로]
  26. downplay ; [타동사][VN] 경시하다, 대단치 않게 생각하다 [본문으로]
  27. extent ; [sing., U] 1. (크기・중요성・심각성 등의) 정도[규모] [본문으로]
  28. make allowance(s) for sth ; ~을 감안[참작]하다 ;; 아량을 베풀다[보이다] ;; …을 고려하다. [본문으로]
  29. informal economy ; (사회학) 비공식적 경제 ;; 고용의 공식적 구조 밖에서 발생하는 보수를 받는 노동의 분류이다. 이것은 등록과 과세의 정규적인 강제를 받지 않으므로, 일반적으로 관행적 거래에 의해 행해진다. 현재 공식적 고용에 관한 연구도 '노동사회학'의 범위를 전부 포괄하지 못한다고 인식되고 있다. 레이 팔(Ray Pahl)과 같은 사회학자, 조나단 거슈니(Jonathan Gershuny)와 같은 경제학자는 사실상 3가지의 상이한 경제, 즉 공식적 경제, 비공식적 경제, 가정경제가 있다는 생각을 개진한 자극적인 논문을 출판했다. [본문으로]
  30. livelihood ; [C , U] [주로 단수로] 생계 (수단) [본문으로]
  31. circumvent ; [타동사] 1. 일주하다, 돌다; 우회하다 ;; 2. <곤란·문제점 등을> 교묘하게 회피하다; <계략 등의> 의표를 찌르다; <법규 등의> 빠질 구멍을 생각해 내다; <남을> 앞지르다 [본문으로]
  32. subterfuge ; [U , C] (격식) 속임수 ;; 1. 둔사(遁辭), 핑계, 구실(pretext). ;; 2. 속임수, 궤변(sophistry). [본문으로]
  33. smuggle ; [타동사] 1. 밀수입[밀수출]하다, 밀수하다 ((in, out, through, over)) ;; 2. 밀입국하다, 밀항하다; 은닉하다 ((away)) ;; 3. 몰래 갖고 들어오다 ((in)), 몰래 갖고 나가다 ((out)) [본문으로]
  34. transponder ; [명사] (전문 용어) (무선) 응답기, 트랜스폰더 ;; 미국∙영국 [trӕns|pɒndə(r)] [본문으로]
  35. loiter ; [자동사] 1. 빈둥거리다, 어슬렁어슬렁 걷다, 쉬엄쉬엄 가다 ;; 2. 빈둥빈둥 시간을 보내다, 게으름 피우다, 더디게 굴다, 늑장 부리다(loaf) ((on, over)) [본문으로]
  36. create the impression that ; ...란 인상을 주다. [본문으로]
  37. be associated with ; ~와 관련된 [본문으로]
  38. a welter of ; 엄청난 양의 [본문으로]
  39. front company ; 유령 회사(shell company 와 같은 뜻) [본문으로]
  40. make it to a place ; ~에 이르다, (어느 장소)에 도착하다 [본문으로]
  41. ship-to-ship transfer ; 선박 대 선박 이송 [본문으로]
  42. 동해 표기는 the Sea of Japan으로 한 것을 확인 [본문으로]
  43. albeit ; [접속사] (격식) 비록 …일지라도 ;; …이기는 하나, …임에도 불구하고(although); 설사 …이라도(even if), …(임)에도 불구하고(even though) [본문으로]
  44. ploy ; [명사] ~ (to do sth) 계책, 술책 [본문으로]
  45. spook ; 3. [美속어] 스파이, 중앙 정보국원. [본문으로]
  46. refined ; 1. [주로 명사 앞에 씀] (물질이) 정제된, 제련된 [본문으로]
  47. evade ; 2. (특히 법적・도덕적 의무를) 회피하다 [본문으로]
  48. cap ; 6. (예산·지출·요금 따위의) 상한선(上限線), 최고 한도. [본문으로]
  49. brotherly ; 형제의, 형제 같은, 형제다운; 애정이 깊은, 친한. [본문으로]
  50. shifting ; [형용사] 1. 이동하는; 바뀌는, <풍향 등이> 변하기 쉬운 [본문으로]
  51. regime ; 2. 제도, 체제 [본문으로]
  52. full-hearted ; [형용사] 정성 들인, 심혈을 기울인; 자신[용기]에 찬; 가슴이 벅찬 ;; WHOLEHEARTED; 자신 있는, 열심인 [본문으로]
  53. pay[give] lip service to ; …에게 입에 발린 말을 하다, 말로만 경의[동의]를 표시하다 [본문으로]
  54. flag ; 2. [자동사][V] 지치다; 약해지다, 시들해지다 [본문으로]
  55. ease ; 3. 마음 편하게[홀가분하게] 시작하다. ;; 4. (주가 따위가) 하락하다, (시황이) 진정되다(off). [본문으로]
  56. reportedly ; [부사] 전하는 바에 의하면, 소문에 의하면; 보도에 따르면 [본문으로]
  57. approve ; 2. [타동사][VN] 승인하다 ;; 3. [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] 인가하다 [본문으로]
  58. adjacent ; [형용사] ~ (to sth) 지역・건물 등이 인접한, 가까운 [본문으로]
  59. Dandong ; [명사] 단둥(丹東) ((중국 랴오닝(遼寧)성의 압록강 변의 항구 도시)) ;; 미국·영국 [dɑ́:ndɔ́:ŋ] [본문으로]
  60. press conference ; (특히 英) (美 주로 'news conference) [명사] 기자 회견 [본문으로]
  61. at adds ; (…와) 다투어, 불화하여; (…와) 조화(調和)하지 못하는[with] [본문으로]
  62. hamper ; [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] 방해하다 [본문으로]
  63. deem ; (…으로) 생각하다, 간주하다(consider) [본문으로]
  64. less of ; 별로[보다] …않다 [본문으로]
  65. flout ; [타동사][VN] (법 등을 공공연히) 어기다[무시하다] ;; [자동사] 경멸[우롱]하다, 비웃다[at]. [본문으로]
  66. enforcer ; [명사] 집행자(특히 정부 내에서 업무 등이 실행되도록 하는 사람) [본문으로]
  67. rebuff ; [타동사] 거절하다, 퇴짜 놓다; 저지하다 ;; 미국∙영국 [rɪ|bʌf] [본문으로]
  68. step (sth) up ; ~을 증가시키다[강화하다] ;; to increase the rate, level, amount, etc. of something [본문으로]
  69. enforcement ; 1. (법률의) 시행, 집행 ;; 2. (복종 등의) 강제 ;; 3. (의견 등의) 강조 [본문으로]
  70. an exemption for ; …으로 인한 공제. [본문으로]
  71. engagement ; 7. (군사) 교전, 회전(會戰)[with]. ;; 동의어 ; BATTLE [본문으로]
  72. effectiveness ; [U] 유효(성), 효과적임 [본문으로]
  73. wane ; 1. 작아[적어]지다; 약해지다, 쇠약해지다, 감퇴하다; 끝이 가까워지다 [본문으로]
  74. hype ; [타동사] (hyped[haipt], hyp·ing) 1. 과대 선전하다; 과장 보도하다. ;; 2. 마구 부추기다, 선동하다; 경기를 북돋우다(up). ;; 3. …을 겉만 번지르르하게 하다; (종종 의문스런 방법으로) 늘리다. ;; 4. 기만하다, 속이다. [본문으로]
  75. obfuscation ; 1. (의학) 불명료화(不明瞭化), 혼미(昏迷) ;; 2. (의학-북한) 혼미,혼동 ;; [NOUN] the act or an instance of making something obscure, dark, or difficult to understand [본문으로]
  76. predictably ; [부사] 예상대로 [본문으로]
  77. -watching ; [COMB in N-UNCOUNT] -watching combines with nouns to form other nouns which refer to the activity of looking at a group of animals or people and studying them because they interest you. [본문으로]
  78. intercontinental ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) 대륙간의 ;; [ADJ] Intercontinental is used to describe something that exists or happens between continents. [본문으로]
  79. dismantle ; 1. (건물·선박에서)〔설비·가구·장비 따위〕를 제거하다, 철거하다; …을 무장 해제하다[of]. ;; 2. …을 부수다; 〔기계 따위〕를 분해하다, 해체하다; 〔제도 따위〕를 서서히 폐지하다. [본문으로]
  80. boast ; 2. 〔자랑할 만한 것〕을 가지고 있다, …을 가진 것을 자랑으로 삼다. [본문으로]
  81. even as ; …하는 바로 그 순간에 ;; Right at the moment, right now, contemporaneously. [본문으로]
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