[Annotated] How to deal with the world's most dangerous regime

^[각주:1]

Donald Trump grapples with^[각주:2] his trickiest task

North Korea can be as confusing as it is alarming^[각주:3]. It is a hereditary^[각주:4] Marxist monarchy^[각주:5]. It has the world's youngest supreme leader and also its oldest. The reigning^[각주:6] tyrant, Kim Jong Un, is in his 30s; and his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, is the "eternal president" despite having died in 1994. To celebrate grandpa Kim's birthday on April 15th, his grandson ordered warplanes^[각주:7] to fly past^[각주:8] in a formation spelling out^[각주:9] his age: 105. He also ordered a gigantic parade, with goose-stepping^[각주:10] soldiers and missiles on trucks. A male-voice choir belted out^[각주:11] "Peace is guaranteed by our arms", even as the regime threatens to rain nuclear destruction on^[각주:12] its enemies and is building a missile designed to reach the continental^[각주:13] United States.

Dealing with the bellicose^[각주:14] junior god-king^[각주:15] will be one of Donald Trump's trickiest tasks. It will also be the first big test of how he handles relations with China, which are shifting as the rising superpower challenges the Pax Americana in Asia. There are no good options, but arriving at^[각주:16] the least-bad ones will require understanding both the regime and the Asian geopolitical^[각주:17] jigsaw^[각주:18] into which it fits. It will also require patience. Ominously^[각주:19], Mr Trump says he has little when it comes to North Korea, and his vice-president, Mike Pence, says that "all options" are on the table^[각주:20].

Wanting to do something quickly is emotionally appealing^[각주:21]. North Korea is a vile^[각주:22], blood-drenched^[각주:23] dictatorship where any hint of disloyalty^[각주:24] is punishable by^[각주:25] gulag^[각주:26] or death. Mr Kim has children imprisoned for^[각주:27] their parents' thought-crimes^[각주:28] and his own relatives murdered on a whim^[각주:29]. The prospect of such a man threatening Los Angeles is harrowing^[각주:30]. Yet a pre-emptive^[각주:31] strike on North Korea would be reckless^[각주:32] beyond belief^[각주:33]. Its nuclear devices are hidden, possibly deep underground. Its missiles are dispersed on^[각주:34] mobile launchers^[각주:35]. Tokyo is just across the Sea of Japan. Seoul, the capital of peaceful, capitalist South Korea, is only a few miles from the border. Northern artillery^[각주:36] and conventional^[각주:37] missiles could devastate^[각주:38] it; a conflict could rapidly turn nuclear and kill millions. 

Mr Trump cannot possibly want to start a war. His military actions in Syria and Afghanistan suggest that he is more cautious^[각주:39] than his bluster^[각주:40] makes him sound. But even creating the impression that he might strike first is dangerous. If Mr Kim were to believe that an American attack is imminent^[각주:41], he might order his own pre-emptive nuclear attack, with disastrous consequences^[각주:42]. So Mr Trump should cool^[각주:43] his rhetoric^[각주:44] immediately. 

Dealmaker, meet deal-breaker

For all his eccentricities^[각주:45], Mr Kim is behaving rationally. He watched Muammar Qadaffi of Libya give up his nuclear program in return for^[각주:46] better relations with the West - and end up dead. He sees his nuclear arsenal as a guarantee^[각주:47] that his regime, and he, will survive. (Though it would be suicidal^[각주:48] for him to use it.) Mr Trump can do little to change his mind. Economic sanctions^[각주:49] that harm his people will not spoil his lunch. Cyber-attacks, which may account for^[각주:50] the failure of some recent missile launches, can slow but not stop him. America can solve the Korean conundrum^[각주:51] only with China's help.

China has leverage over^[각주:52] Mr Kim. It accounts for 85% of North Korea's foreign trade and could shut off its oil supply. But its interests are not the same as America's. North Korea is its ally. China's leaders do not like the Kim regime, but they do not wish to see it collapse and Norse Korea reunite, German-style, with the democratic South. That, China fears, would mean the loss of a valuable buffer^[각주:53]. There are 28,500 American troops stationed in^[각주:54] the South; China does not want them on its border.

To contain North Korea - and to conduct a successful foreign policy more broadly - Mr Trump has to learn how to talk to China. His instinct is to do deals. Last week he tweeted that he told Xi Jinping, China's president, that "a trade deal with the US will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!" Later he explained that his decision not to label^[각주:55] China a currency manipulator, as he had threatened, was a quid pro quo^[각주:56] for China helping out ^[각주:57]over North Korea. Dropping the currency threat was the right policy, but Mr Trump's transactional^[각주:58] approach to diplomacy is exactly the wrong one. 

China would love to carve up^[각주:59] the world bilaterally^[각주:60] into spheres of influence^[각주:61], with the great powers dominating their regions and trading favors elsewhere. America has long been the guardian of something different: a rules-based order that applies to^[각주:62] every country, big or small, and which has underpinned^[각주:63] the relative peace and remarkable growth of the world since 1945. That Mr Trump appears to scorn^[각주:64] this rules-based global order is worrying^[각주:65]. The world would become a more dangerous place if America started letting China break the rules (for example, in the South China Sea) in exchange for^[각주:66] help to resolve whichever^[각주:67] issue happens to be in the news. A better response to China's rise would be for America to strengthen the rules-based order and invite China to join it more actively. Alas, Mr Trump is unlikely to do this.

So the best hope is that he or his diplomats persuade China that it is in its own interest to curb^[각주:68] North Korea. And the way to do this is to talk about North Korea itself, not the yuan or American steel jobs.

Three generations of Kims are enough

China does not gain if North Korea destabilizes^[각주:69] East Asia, or starts a regional arms race^[각주:70] that leads Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear weapons. Mr Trump should reassure^[각주:71] his allies in Tokyo and Seoul that they remain under Uncle Sam's protection. But he should also deal with China's concerns. To that end^[각주:72], he could make it clear that freezing and then rolling back^[각주:73] the North's nuclear program is his goal rather than regime change. He could also guarantee that, were the North to collapse into the arms of the South, America would keep its troops south of the current north-south boundary. China hates to admit that the Kim dynasty might not last, but it is rash^[각주:74] not to plan for that possibility.

The crucial^[각주:75] message for Mr Kim as for his predecessors is that, if the North were to use its nukes^[각주:76], the regime would be obliterated^[각주:77]. In the long run^[각주:78], reunification is inevitable and desirable^[각주:79]. Meanwhile^[각주:80], the junior god-king can be deterred^[각주:81]. 

1. arrive at ; (특히 논의·생각 끝에) ~에 이르다 [본문으로]
2. grapple with ; ~을 해결하려고 노력하다 [본문으로]
3. alarming ; [형용사] 걱정스러운, 두려운 [본문으로]
4. hereditary ; 2. (상습권에 따라) 세습되는 [본문으로]
5. monarchy ; 2. [C] 군주국 ;; 참고 republic [본문으로]
6. reigning ; 1. 군림하는 [본문으로]
7. warplane ; [명사] 전투기 [본문으로]
8. fly past ; (비행기의) 분열식을 하다 [본문으로]
9. spell out ; 1. ~을 간결하게[자세히] 설명하다 [본문으로]
10. goose-step ; [동사] 1. 무릎을 굽히지 않고 걷다 ;; [명사] [명사] (흔히 못마땅함) (군인들이) 다리를 굽히지 않고 높이 들면서 걷는 행진 [본문으로]
11. belt out ; 큰 소리로 노래하다[연주하다] [본문으로]
12. rain ; 2. ~ (sth) (down) (on sb/sth) (비처럼) 쏟아지다[쏟아 붓다] [본문으로]
13. continental ; 3. [명사 앞에만 씀] 북미 대륙의 [본문으로]
14. bellicose ; [형용사] (격식) 호전적인, 싸우기 좋아하는 [본문으로]
15. god-king ; [명사] 신격화된 군주[임금], 신왕(神王) [본문으로]
16. arrive at ; (특히 논의·생각 끝에) ~에 이르다 [본문으로]
17. geopolitical ; [형용사] 지정학의, 지정학적인. (또는 geopolitic) [본문으로]
18. jigsaw ; 2. (이해하기 힘든) 불가사의한 상황, 복잡한 문제 [본문으로]
19. ominously ; [부사] 불길하게, 기분 나쁘게; 불온하게. ;; 동의어 bodefully, threateningly, menacingly. [본문으로]
20. be on / upon the table ; 검토 중이다; 널리 알려져 있다 [본문으로]
21. appealing ; 1. 매력적인, 흥미로운 [본문으로]
22. vile ; 2. (격식) 비도덕적인, 절대 용납할 수 없는 [본문으로]
23. drenched ; 흠뻑 젖은. ;; 비슷한 단어로는 soaked가 있다. [본문으로]
24. disloyalty ; 2. 불충한[불성실한, 배신] 행위 [본문으로]
25. punishable ; [형용사] ~ (by/with sth) 범죄가 (특히 법으로) 처벌할 수 있는, …형에 처해질 수 있는 [본문으로]
26. gulag ; 2. [g~] (특히 사상·정치범의) 강제 노동 수용소 [본문으로]
27. imprison ; [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] 투옥하다, 감금하다 [본문으로]
28. thoughtcrime ; [명사] 사상 범죄 [본문으로]
29. on a whim ; 즉흥적으로, 충동적으로 [본문으로]
30. harrowing ; [형용사] 끔찍한, 참혹한 [본문으로]
31. preemptive strike ; 선제 공격 [본문으로]
32. reckless ; [형용사] 무모한, 신중하지 못한; 난폭한 [본문으로]
33. beyond belief ; 믿을 수 없을 정도로[정도인] [본문으로]
34. disperse ; 2. (넓은 지역에) 흩어지다[확산되다]; 흩다[확산시키다] [본문으로]
35. mobile launcher ; 기동, 이동 발사대 [본문으로]
36. artillery ; 2. [sing.] the artillery 포병대 [본문으로]
37. conventional ; 3. [주로 명사 앞에 씀] (특히 무기가) 재래식의, 비핵의 [본문으로]
38. devastate ; 1. (한 장소나 지역을) 완전히 파괴하다 [본문으로]
39. cautious ; [형용사] ~ (about sb/sth) | ~ (about doing sth) 조심스러운, 신중한 [본문으로]
40. bluster ; 2. 고함침, 노호(怒號); 허세 [본문으로]
41. imminent ; [형용사] 특히 불쾌한 일이 금방이라도 닥칠 듯한, 목전의, 임박한 [본문으로]
42. disastrous consequence ; 비참한 결과 [본문으로]
43. cool ; 1. BECOME COLDER | 식다[차가워지다]; 식히다[차게 하다] [본문으로]
44. rhetoric ; [U] 1. (격식 흔히 못마땅함) 미사여구 [본문으로]
45. eccentricity ; 2. [C] [주로 복수로] 기벽 [본문으로]
46. in return for ; [부사] …의 답으로서, 답례로서; 대가로, …와 맞바꾸어. ;; 동의어 as a reciprocity [exchange] for. [본문으로]
47. guarantee ; 3. ~ (of sth) | ~ (that…) 보장(하는 것) [본문으로]
48. suicidal ; 2. 죽음[자멸]을 초래할, 몹시 위험한 [본문으로]
49. sanction ; 1. [C] [주로 복수로] ~ (against sb) 제재 [본문으로]
50. account for ; 1. ~을 해명하다[~의 이유가 되다] [본문으로]
51. conundrum ; Noun 1. 난문제 2. 수수께끼 [본문으로]
52. leverage ; [U] 1. (격식) 영향력 [본문으로]
53. buffer ; 1. ~ (against sth) | ~ (between sth and sth) 완충제 (역할을 하는 것) [본문으로]
54. station ; [vn , + adv. / prep.] 1. ARMED FORCES | [흔히 수동태로] (특히 군인을) 배치하다[주둔시키다] [본문으로]
55. label ; 2. ~ sb/sth (as) sth (특히 부당하게) 딱지[꼬리표]를 붙이다 [본문으로]
56. quid pro quo ; [명사] (라틴어에서) (…에 대한) 보상[대가]으로 주는 것 ;; US [|kwɪdproʊ|kwoʊ] UK [|kwɪdprəʊ|kwəʊ] [본문으로]
57. help out ; (특히 곤경에 처한 ~를) 도와주다 ;; 동의어 help somebody out [본문으로]
58. transactional ; [형용사] 업무[거래]의; 업무적인. [본문으로]
59. carve up ; (회사·토지 등을) 분할하다 [본문으로]
60. bilaterally ; [부사] 양 방향으로, 쌍무적으로. [본문으로]
61. sphere of influence ; 세력 범위[권](한 나라의 정치적·경제적 영향력이 미치는 다른 나라의 영토) [본문으로]
62. apply to ; ~에 적용되다 [본문으로]
63. underpin ; (-nn-), [vn] 1. (격식) (주장 등을[의]) 뒷받침하다[근거를 대다] [본문으로]
64. scorn ; 1. [타동사][VN] 경멸[멸시]하다 [본문으로]
65. worrying ; [형용사] 걱정스러운, 걱정되는, 우려되는 [본문으로]
66. in exchange for ; ~대신의, 교환으로 [본문으로]
67. whichever ; 1. [관계형용사; 명사절을 이끌어] …하는 어느, 어느 것[쪽]의 …이든지 [본문으로]
68. curb ; [타동사][VN] (특히 좋지 못한 것을) 억제[제한]하다 [본문으로]
69. destabilize ; [타동사][VN] (체제・국가・정부 등을) 불안정하게 만들다 ;; 참고 stabilize [본문으로]
70. regional arms race ; 지역의 군비 확장 경쟁 [본문으로]
71. reassure ; 1. 안심시키다, 다시 용기를 내게 하다, 다시 자신을 갖게 하다 ((about, of, that [절/] )) [본문으로]
72. to that end ; 그 목적을 달하기 위해서. [본문으로]
73. roll back ; 되돌리다 [본문으로]
74. rash ; 1. 무분별한, 무모한, 경솔한, 지각없는 [본문으로]
75. crucial ; ~ (to/for sth) | ~ (that…) 중대한, 결정적인 [본문으로]
76. nuke ; 핵무기 [본문으로]
77. obliterate ; [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] (흔적을) 없애다[지우다] [본문으로]
78. in the long run ; (앞으로 길게 보았을 때) 결국에는, 오래 달려간 끝에, 결국은. [본문으로]
79. desirable ; 1. ~ (that)… | ~ (for sb) (to do sth) (격식) 바람직한, 호감 가는, 가치 있는 [본문으로]
80. meanwhile ; 1. (비격식 mean・time) (다른 일이 일어나고 있는) 그 동안에 [본문으로]
81. deter ; (-rr-) ~ sb (from sth/from doing sth) 단념시키다, 그만두게 하다 ;; 참고 deterrent [본문으로]