티스토리 뷰
It leaves Britain little time to get through a bulging 1, contentious 2 agenda 3
Back in October Theresa may promised to invoke 4 Article 50, the legal procedure for 5 leaving the European Union, by the end of March 2017. On March 29th the prime minister duly 6 sent a six-page letter to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council of heads of EU governments 7. Article 50 sets in motion a negotiating process 8 with a two-year time limit that can be extended only by unanimous agreement of 9 all EU governments. Mrs May told Parliament this was a time for the country to come together 10. And in her letter she promised her European partners (seven times) that she wanted a "deep and special partnership" with the EU.
No doubt mindful of 11the two-year deadline, the response from Brussels was swift 12. Mr Tusk issued a curt acknowledgement 13 14 and said he would publish draft guidelines for 15 the negotiations shortly. He confirmed that, after debate among EU governments, the European Council would meet on April 29th to approve the guidelines; later, governments will approve a negotiating mandate 16 17for the European Commission. The April meeting will fall between the two rounds of France's presidential election, giving leaders something else to chew over 18. They will also have in mind 19 Germany's election in September.
A discussion that has so far mainly been among parties at home will now shift to 20 the real battleground, between Britain and its EU partners. The British team will find that, for those partners, unity of 21 the 27 is the main goal. Mr Tusk's response says that the EU's priority is to minimize uncertainty for "our citizens, businesses and member states 22". And although the constructive tone of 23 Mrs May's letter was welcomed, many jibbed at 24 her threat to link 25 security and the fight against crime and terrorism to securing a trade deal.
The first tussle with 26 Michel Barnier, a former French foreign minister who is the commission 27's Brexit negotiator, will be over whether the talks should start with the terms of divorce 28and only later discuss a trade deal. This is what the European Council wants. Mrs May will argue that both issues should be negotiated simultaneously 29, since Article 50 talks of a settlement 30 "taking account of 31the framework of [a leaving country's] future relationship". But the others are likely to stand firm.
One reason for this is that the divorce talks alone will be difficult enough. The commission's negotiating mandate will include agreeing on the rights of 3m EU citizens to stay in Britain and 1m Britons to stay in EU countries; finding some way to avert a hard border between 34Northern Ireland and the Irish republic; and settling the exit bill that it claims Britain must pay. The first should be uncontroversial 35, though it may take some time to settle. The second will be testing, because Britain's plan to leave the EU's single market and customs union 36 seems to imply border controls 37 38. Yet it is the third that could be the most explosive 39.
The commission claims that past commitments plus future obligations 40 41 mean that Britain owes 42 the EU as much as €60bn ($65bn). It believes this debt could be enforced at 43 the International Court of Justice 44. Mrs May's letter refers to 45 the matter only obliquely 46. David Davis, her Brexit secretary, likes to quote a report from the House of Lords citing 47 legal advice 48 49that, after Brexit, Britain will owe the EU nothing. More fanciful Brexiteers even claim that the EU owes Britain money for its share in the capital of the European Investment Bank.
Rows over 50 money have always been the bitterest of all in the EU. The departure of 51 such a big net contributor 52 53 will cause pain, one reason why the commission has talked up the size of the exit bill 54. The voting rules under 55 Article 50 do not make Britain's position any easier. The divorce settlement 56must be approved by a "qualified majority 57" of EU countries, excluding Britain, and by the European Parliament 58. The parliament's Brexit point-man 59, Guy Verhofstadt, threatens to cause trouble.
There is a serious risk that the budget row will blow up the talks before they start. Mr Barnier has tried to avoid this by suggesting it is possible to agree to some broad principles for a settlement and leave the exact amounts for later haggling 60. That could take place when the discussion moves on to future trading arrangements 61. Alas, these could prove even harder to settle than the Article 50 divorce itself.
Mrs May has made clear that her priorities are to take back control of 62 migration, breaching 63 the EU's principle of free movement of people, and to escape the jurisdiction of 64 the European Court of Justice (ECJ). This means, as she accepts, that Britain must leave the EU's single market and customs union 65. She rejects off-the-shelf models for 66 a new trade relationship. Instead, she wants a bespoke 67 free-trade deal that gives, to the maximum extent 68possible, barrier-free access to each other's market.
This will be tricky to agree on, and even harder to ratify 69. In many countries the opponents of free trade will stand in the way 70. Negotiations take years: they started between Canada and the EU in 2007 and the resultant 71 CETA deal is still not fully in force 72. The rules for approving a Britain-EU free-trade deal will be a problem, for as a "mixed" agreement it must be ratified by all national parliaments in 73 the EU as well as regional ones (including Wallonia's, which almost kiboshed 74 CETA).
Substituting 76 new rules for those of the single market is even more complicated than agreeing on a free-trade deal, for they intrude into 77almost every part of business activity 78. A special number of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy gives an idea of the vast spread of 79 policies that must be changed post-Brexit. Besides the economic and legal impacts, it includes chapters on a new migration regime 80, financial-services 81regulation, competition policy 82, regional aid, state aid, industrial policy 83, transport 84, agricultural support 85 and higher education.
Against a tight deadline, the complexity of these issues will be a huge challenge. Anand Menon of King's College, London, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, and academic network, reckons the Brexit negotiations will be the most difficult and complicated that any post-war government has faced. The Institute for Government, a think-tank, adds that Britain's civil service is at its smallest since the war; it also notes gaps in the staffing of 86the relevant departments.
Trade negotiators insist a deal will take longer than two years. Some Brexiteers disagree, pointing out that, unlike normal trade talks, the two sides start in complete convergence 87, since Britain has been an EU member for 44 years. To cement this 88, they note that the misnamed 89 Great Repeal Bill, promised by the government this week, will translate almost all current EU laws into British law 90. Yet it is not the starting point 91that matters, but what happens when a post-Brexit Britain freed from 92the ECJ begins to diverge from 93 the EU's norms 94.
In truth, the nub of 95 the single market is not its scrapping of tariffs 96 or even customs checks, but its getting rid of myriad non-tariff barriers thrown up by 97 different rules and standards. The government is hinting that, for practical reasons, it might stick with 98 some EU regulators (such as, perhaps, the European Medicines Agency) for some time after Brexit. But as Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy, says, this ducks the point 99 that, if Britain wants to retain barrier-free 100 access to 101 the single market, it may have to observe 102 all EU regulatory standards 103 anyway.
Another argument from Brexiteers confronted by 104 Article 50's two-year deadline is that there is little to fear if there is no deal at all. Mrs May herself has insisted that "no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain", though she did not repeat this in her letter. No deal means reverting to trade on 105 World Trade Organization terms 106. As Open Britain, another think-tank, notes, this implies not just all of the EU's non-tariff barriers, but tariffs of 10% on cars, 15% on food and 36% on dairy products 107. It would end Britain's access to the EU's trade deals with 53 other countries. Last year the Treasury said this option would reduce GDP by 7.5% after 15 years. The House of Commons 108 Foreign Affairs committee 109recently warned against 110the no-deal option.
If a comprehensive 111 trade agreement cannot be made in two years, an obvious conclusion follows: some transitional arrangement 112 113will be needed after March 2019. Mrs May's letter nods to 114this by talking about "implementation periods 115". The trouble is that any such arrangement may itself be hard to agree on, especially if there is lack of clarity over 116 the final destination. The simplest idea is to prolong the status quo 117 118, but that may be hard for Mrs may to sell at home if it entails 119 both free movement of 120 people and a role for 121 the ECJ.
And then there are the implications for the United Kingdom. Some policies needing redesign 122 post-Brexit, such as fisheries, are matters for developed governments. This week the Scottich Parliament backed the demand of 123 its first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, for a second independence referendum 124. In Northern Ireland, where attempts to form a new power-sharing executive 125 126 have broken down 127again, Sinn Fein is calling for a referendum on whether to join 128 the Irish republic. Mrs May has vowed to 129 protect the "precious, precious union", but she knows that both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU last June.
At least she can take comfort in the ineffectiveness of 130 131 the opposition at home. Both Labor and the UK Independence Party are beset by 132 weak leadership and internal feuding 133. Yet her control over 134 Parliament is not absolute 135. Her working majority 136 is just 17. Passage of 137 the Great Repeal Bill may be contentious 138, and it is only the first of up to 15 parliamentary bills necessitated by 139Brexit. Several MPs are loudly promising to hold Mrs May and Mr Davis to account over 140 their Brexit promises. This week Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, produced six tests for judging if Labor should support the final deal, while a cross-party 141 group under the auspices of 142 Open Britain came up with ten points. The House of Lords, most of whose members are strongly anti-Brexit, may also make difficulties for Mrs May.
In the end, however, her biggest problem may not be with her opponents or with her EU partners across the negotiating table 143. As so many previous Tory prime ministers have found, it will be with her own backbenchers 144. Hardline Brexiteers 145 are ready to denounce any compromise in 146 147 the negotiations as a betrayal 148. Mrs May has raised their expectations, as well as those of voters, about the benefit of Brexit. When it becomes clear that there are costs instead, she may find her high popularity ratings fast withering away 149 150.
- get through ; (정식으로) 통과하다[~을 통과시키다] [본문으로]
- bulging ; [형용사] 불거져[튀어] 나온 [본문으로]
- contentious ; (격식) 1. 논쟁을 초래할 (듯한) [본문으로]
- invoke ; 1. ~ sth (against sb) (법・규칙 등을) 들먹이다[적용하다] [본문으로]
- legal procedure ; 소송 절차, 법적 절차 [본문으로]
- duly ; 2. 적절한 때에, 때를 맞춰 [본문으로]
- European Council ; [명사] 유럽 이사회(EU 회원국 정상 회의). [본문으로]
- [put]set in motion ; ~에 시동을 걸다, 활기를 띠게 하다. ; do what is necessary to make a start on a project, plan, meeting, etc [본문으로]
- unanimous agreement ; 완전한 합의, 만장일치 [본문으로]
- come together ; (하나로) 합치다 [본문으로]
- mindful of ; …을 유념하는. [본문으로]
- swift ; 1. ~ (to do sth) (일・진행 등이) 신속한[재빠른] [본문으로]
- curt ; [형용사] 사람의 태도나 행동이 퉁명스러운 [본문으로]
- acknowledgement ; 3. [C] 답신, 접수 통지 [본문으로]
- draft guideline ; 지침 초안 [본문으로]
- negotiating ; 협상 (cf. negotiable 협상할 수 있는) [본문으로]
- mandate ; 1. ~ (to do sth) | ~ (for sth) (선거에 의해 국민들로부터 정부나 다른 조직에게 주어지는) 권한 [본문으로]
- chew over ; ~을 곰곰이 생각하다[차근차근 논의하다] [본문으로]
- have / keep ~ in mind ; (특히 특정 일자리 등에 대해) ~을 염두에 두다[생각하다] [본문으로]
- shift to ; …로 옮기다. [본문으로]
- unity ; (pl. -ies) 1. [U , sing.] 통합, 통일 [본문으로]
- member state ; 회원국. [본문으로]
- constructive ; [형용사] 건설적인 [본문으로]
- jib at ; 난색을 보이다 [본문으로]
- link ; 3. 관련이 있다고 말하다, 관련[연결]시키다 [본문으로]
- tussle ; [명사] ~ (for/over sth) (특히 무엇을 차지하기 위한) 몸싸움, 드잡이 [본문으로]
- commission ; 1. OFFICIAL GROUP | [C] 흔히 Commission (보통 정부의 위임을 받은) 위원회[위원단] [본문으로]
- terms ; [pl.], (참고: contradiction , equal , speak , uncertain) 1. (합의・계약 등의) 조건 [본문으로]
- simultaneously ; [부사] 동시에 ((with)); 일제히 [본문으로]
- settlement ; 1. [C] (분쟁 등을 끝내는 공식적인) 합의 [본문으로]
- take account of ; ~을 고려하다[감안하다] ;; 동의어 take something into account [본문으로]
- splendid ; (특히 英) 1. (구식) 정말 좋은[멋진], 훌륭한 [본문으로]
- integration ; 1. [U , C] 통합 [본문으로]
- avert ; 2. ~ your eyes, gaze, face (from sth) (~에서) 눈[얼굴]을 돌리다[외면하다] [본문으로]
- uncontroversial ; [형용사] 논란의 여지가 없는[적은] ;; 참고 non-controversial [본문으로]
- customs union ; [명사] 관세 동맹 [본문으로]
- imply ; 3. [타동사][VN] (생각・행동 등이 성공하려면 무엇이 필요함을) 의미하다 [본문으로]
- border control ; 출입국관리 [본문으로]
- explosive ; 2. (폭력・분노・증오를) 촉발하는 [본문으로]
- commitment ; 4. [U , C] ~ (of sth) (to sth) (돈・시간・인력의) 투입 [본문으로]
- obligation ; 1. [U] (법적・도의적) 의무(가 있음) [본문으로]
- owe ; [진행형으로는 쓰이지 않음] 1. ~ sth (to sb) (for sth) | ~ (sb) sth (for sth) (돈을) 빚지고 있다 [본문으로]
- enforce ; 1. ~ sth (on/against sb/sth) (법률 등을) 집행[시행/실시]하다 [본문으로]
- the International Court of Justice ; [the ~] 국제 사법 재판소 ((World Court의 공식명; 略 ICJ)) [본문으로]
- refer to ; ~을 나타내다[~와 관련 있다] [본문으로]
- obliquely ; [부사] 비스듬히 (기울어져); 부정하게; 간접으로 [본문으로]
- the House of Lords ; [명사] (영국에서) 상원 [본문으로]
- cite ; [vn], (격식) 1. ~ sth (as sth) (이유・예를) 들다[끌어 대다] 2. 인용하다 [본문으로]
- legal advice ; [명사] 법률상담 (조언) [본문으로]
- row ; (비격식 특히 英) 1. [C] ~ (about/over sth) (사람・조직 등 간의) 심각한 의견 대립 [본문으로]
- departure ; 3. [C] ~ (from sth) (정도・일상 등으로부터) 벗어남[일탈] [본문으로]
- net ; [형용사] [A] 에누리 없는; 순(純)…, 정(正)…(opp. gross) [본문으로]
- contributor ; 2. 기부[기여]자 [본문으로]
- talk up ; ~을 (실제보다 더) 좋게 말하다 [본문으로]
- voting rule ; 투표 규칙 [본문으로]
- divorce settlement ; 이혼 합의 사항 [본문으로]
- qualified ; 1. ~ (for sth) 자격(증)이 있는 [본문으로]
- the European Parliament ; [명사] 유럽 연합 의회 [본문으로]
- point-man ; 핵심인물, 자문위원 [본문으로]
- haggling ; 흥정, 에누리 [본문으로]
- trading arrangement ; 무역협정 [본문으로]
- take back control of ; ~에 대한 권한, 통제력을 되찾다 [본문으로]
- breach ; [vn] 1. (합의나 약속을) 위반하다[어기다] [본문으로]
- jurisdiction ; (격식) 1. [U , C] ~ (over sb/sth) | ~ (of sb/sth) (to do sth) 관할권; 사법권 [본문으로]
- customs union ; [명사] 관세 동맹 [본문으로]
- off-the-shelf ; [형용사] 재고품의, 출하 대기의; 기성품인, (특별히 디자인하거나 주문하지 않고) 규격품으로[바로 살 수 있는] [본문으로]
- bespoke ; [주로 명사 앞에 씀], (특히 英 격식) 1. (美 주로 'custom-|made) (제품이) (개인 주문에 따라) 맞춘 [본문으로]
- extent ; [sing., U] 1. (크기・중요성・심각성 등의) 정도[규모] [본문으로]
- ratify ; [타동사][VN] (rati・fies , rati・fy・ing , rati・fied , rati・fied) 비준[재가]하다 [본문으로]
- stand[be] in the way ; 방해, 장애가 되다. [본문으로]
- resultant ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) (격식) (앞에 언급한) 그 결과로 생긴[그에 따른] [본문으로]
- be in force[operation] ; 시행되고 있다 [본문으로]
- national parliament ; 국회 [본문으로]
- kibosh ; [VERB] to put a stop to [본문으로]
- tangle up ; to twist something into an untidy mass; to become twisted in this way [본문으로]
- substitute ; ~ A (for B) | ~ B (with/by A) | ~ for sb/sth 대신하다, 대치[교체]되다; 대용[교체/대치]하다 [본문으로]
- intrude into ; 1. ~ (into/on/upon sb/sth) (남이 원치 않거나 가서는 안 될 곳에) 자기 마음대로 가다[침범하다] [본문으로]
- business activity ; [명사] 사업활동, 경영활동 [본문으로]
- spread ; [명사] 2. RANGE/VARIETY | [C] [주로 단수로] 다양성, 폭넓음 [본문으로]
- regime ; 2. 제도, 체제 [본문으로]
- financial services ; [명사] 금융 서비스 [본문으로]
- competition policy ; (지식경제용어) 경쟁정책 [본문으로]
- industrial policy ; 산업 정책 [본문으로]
- transport ; 3. [U] (trans・por・ta・tion 美, 英) (특히 英 또한) 운송, 수송, 운송업 [본문으로]
- agricultural ; [형용사] 농업의, 농사[농예]의, 농학(상)의 [본문으로]
- staffing ; [명사] 직원 채용 [본문으로]
- complete convergence ; 완전한 수렴 [본문으로]
- cement ; [vn] 1. [흔히 수동태로] ~ A and B (together) A와 B를 접합시키다 [본문으로]
- misname ; [동사] (주로 수동태로) 이름을 잘못 붙이다[부르다] [본문으로]
- translate ... into ; 3. ~ (sth) (into sth) (다른 형태로) 바꾸다[옮기다]; 바뀌다 [본문으로]
- starting point ; 1. ~ (for sth) (토론 등의) 출발점[기점] [본문으로]
- free from ; …을 면한, …의 염려가 없는 [본문으로]
- diverge from ; …에서 나뉘다, 벗어나다 ;; diverge from the norm ; 규범을 벗어나다 [본문으로]
- norm ; (경영) 규준/규범 [본문으로]
- nub ; [sing.] the ~ (of sth) 요지, 핵심 [본문으로]
- scrapping of tariffs ; 관세의 폐지, 페기 [본문으로]
- myriad ; [ADJ] Myriad means having a large number or great variety. [본문으로]
- stick with ; [VERB] to persevere with; remain faithful to [본문으로]
- duck ; 4. ~ (out of) sth (불쾌하거나 힘든 의무・책무를) 피하다[모면하다] [본문으로]
- retain ; [vn], (비교적 격식), (참고: retention , retentive) 1. (계속) 유지[보유]하다 [본문으로]
- barrier-free ; [형용사] 장애물이 없는; 장애자 친화적인. [본문으로]
- observe ; 4. [타동사][VN] (법률・규칙 등을) 준수하다 [본문으로]
- regulatory standards ; 규정 표준, 규제 기준, 법적 기준, 규제 표준 [본문으로]
- be confronted by[with] ; <어려움 등에> 직면하다, ~와 마주치다. [본문으로]
- revert to sth ; 1. (이전 상태로) 되돌아가다, (과거에 하던 일을) 다시 하기 시작하다 [본문으로]
- terms ; [pl.], (참고: contradiction , equal , speak , uncertain) 1. (합의・계약 등의) 조건 [본문으로]
- dairy products ; 낙농 제품, 유제품 [본문으로]
- the House of Commons ; 하원 [본문으로]
- Foreign Affairs committee ; [명사] 하원외교위원회, 외무위원회. [본문으로]
- warn against ; ~하지 말라고 충고, 주의, 경고하다 [본문으로]
- comprehensive ; 1. 포괄적인, 종합적인 [본문으로]
- transitional ; [형용사] 변천하는; 과도적인, 과도기의 [본문으로]
- arrangement ; 3. [C , U] ~ (with sb) (to do sth) 합의, 협의 [본문으로]
- nod to ; ~에게 고개를 끄덕이다, 동의[찬성]하다. [본문으로]
- implementation period ; (정책) 이행 기간 [본문으로]
- clarity over ; ~에대한 명확성 [본문으로]
- prolong ; [타동사][VN] 연장시키다, 연장하다 [본문으로]
- status quo ; [명사] (라틴어에서) 현재의 상황, 현상(現狀) [본문으로]
- entail ; [동사] 수반하다 [본문으로]
- free movement of ; ~의 자유로운 이동 [본문으로]
- a role for ; ~의 역할 [본문으로]
- redesign ; [명사] 재설계, 정비 ;; 사전에는 동사로 표기되어 있지만 명사로 쓰이는 많은 용례들이 있음 [본문으로]
- back ; 2. SUPPORT | [타동사][VN] 도와주다, 지지[원조/후원]하다 [본문으로]
- independence referendum ; 독립 국민투표 ; 흐름상 스코틀랜드가 영국으로 독립하는 것에 대한 독립투표를 말함 [본문으로]
- power-sharing ; [명사] (여러집단・정당간의)권력 분담 [본문으로]
- executive ; 3. [sing.+ sing./pl. v.] the executive 행정부 참고 judiciary, legislature [본문으로]
- break down ; 결렬되다, 와해되다 [본문으로]
- call for ; 필요로 하다, 찾다, 촉구하다, 요구하다 [본문으로]
- vow to ; ~하기로 맹세하다, 약속하다 [본문으로]
- take comfort in ; …을 낙으로 삼다, …에서 위안을 찾다. [본문으로]
- ineffectiveness ; [명사] 헛됨, 무익함; 무능[무력]함. [본문으로]
- be beset by ; ~에 시달리다, 괴롭힘당하다 [본문으로]
- feuding ; [명사] 불화, 암투, 반목 ;; 사전에는 형용사로 표기되어 있지만 명사로 쓰인 용례도 많이 있음 [본문으로]
- control over ; …에 대한 통제. [본문으로]
- absolute ; 1. 완전한, 완벽한 [본문으로]
- working majority ; (politics) A majority big enough for the party or faction in power to carry through most of its legislative programme without the risk of parliamentary defeat. [본문으로]
- passage ; 5. OF BILL IN PARLIAMENT | [sing.] (법안의) 처리[통과] [본문으로]
- contentious ; (격식) 1. 논쟁을 초래할 (듯한) [본문으로]
- necessitate ; [동사] (격식) …을 필요하게 만들다 [본문으로]
- account over ; 흐름상 "화두로 올려서 추궁하거나, 다시 검증하다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- cross-party ; [형용사] 두 개 이상의 정당과 관련 있는[관계가 있는] [본문으로]
- auspice ; 1. [보통 pl.] 원조, 찬조, 보호(patronage) [본문으로]
- negotiating table ; [명사] (주로 신문에서 쓰여) 협상 테이블, 협상 자리 [본문으로]
- backbencher ; [명사] 백 벤처, 평의원(영국 하원이나 일부 국가 의회에서 정부 각료나 야당 간부가 아닌 의원들. 의회에서 뒷줄에 앉음) ;; 참고 frontbencher [본문으로]
- hardline ; [주로 명사 앞에 씀] 1. (사람이) 강경한 [본문으로]
- denounce ; [vn], (참고: denunciation) 1. ~ sb/sth (as sth) 맹렬히 비난하다 [본문으로]
- compromise ; 3. [U] 타협[절충](행위) [본문으로]
- betrayal ; [U , C] 배신, 배반 [본문으로]
- popularity rating ; [명사] (대통령, 총리 등의) 지지율, 인기도. ;; 동의어 approval rating. [본문으로]
- wither away ; to become less or weaker, especially before disappearing completely [본문으로]
'Articles > Annotated' 카테고리의 다른 글
[Annotated] Japan's labor market is tight. So why aren’t wages rising? (0) | 2017.04.10 |
---|---|
[Annotated] Is China challenging the United States for global leadership? (0) | 2017.04.03 |
[Annotated] The Trump presidency is in a hole (0) | 2017.03.31 |
[Annotated] Why China is wrong to be furious about THAAD (0) | 2017.03.26 |
[Annotated] Are investors too optimistic about Amazon? (0) | 2017.03.25 |