[Annotated] A Brexit transition deal will be harder to reach than Britain thinks

Yet again, reality turns out to be complicated^[각주:1]

Britain is running out of time to^[각주:2] finish negotiations before^[각주:3] it is due to leave^[각주:4] the European Union on March 29th 2019. Theresa May insisted in Parliament this week that the recent EU summit had made important progress^[각주:5]. Yet the start of talks on a framework for future trade may not happen until after December. Hence^[각주:6] a favorite idea for averting^[각주:7] a "cliff-edge^[각주:8]" Brexit: transition. This week Britain's five biggest business lobbies demanded^[각주:9] the government seek early agreement on^[각주:10] a transitional deal to^[각주:11] form a bridge between^[각주:12] Brexit and a new trading arrangement^[각주:13]. 

Mrs May has conceded this^[각주:14] in principle^[각주:15], although she still insists on^[각주:16] calling it an "implementation" period^[각주:17]. This is not just semantic^[각주:18]: she upset businesses this week^[각주:19] by suggesting that, unless a trade deal is done by next autumn, there may be nothing to implement. In practice^[각주:20], the need for transition is clear to all, which is why it is covered in^[각주:21] the EU's own negotiating guidelines. Yet the work on it that has now started will quickly hit problems that^[각주:22] may cause delays. And timing matters: Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has noted that the value to business of a transition plan will diminish the longer it takes to agree.

A first issue concerns what rules to follow during transition. Mrs May has promised that businesses will not have to adjust twice to Brexit, which implies keeping current arrangements for now. The EU will insist that any transition prolong^[각주:23] the acquis^[각주:24] (ie, all existing laws^[각주:25]), and the jurisdiction of^[각주:26] the European Court of Justice (ECJ)^[각주:27], but without British participation in^[각주:28] EU institutions. Jean-Claude Piris, a former EU legal adviser^[각주:29], calls this a "full monty^[각주:30]" transition, and suggests it will be the only version on offer^[각주:31]. Yet it leaves questions. Will Britain be subject to future laws that^[각주:32] it has no say in^[각주:33] making? Could it temporarily^[각주:34] retain a judge on^[각주:35] the ECJ? What about annual EU budget decisions^[각주:36] (including on Britain's budget rebate^[각주:37]) that are taken without any British vote? Or the controversial annual carve-up of^[각주:38] fishing quotas? 

More important may be legal issues^[각주:39]. Some lawyers, including Mr Piris, reckon that^[각주:40] transition can be agreed under Article 50 of the EU treaty, which governs the Brexit divorce. Yet the EU guidelines refer only to what is legally possible. Must transition be strictly time-limited to conform with^[각주:41] withdrawal under^[각주:42] Article 50 - and what happens if it becomes necessary to roll it forward^[각주:43]? If there is no agreement on even the framework of^[각주:44] a future trade deal, can transition be legally workable^[각주:45] at all^[각주:46], on the basis that under the article it needs to be a bridge to something?

There are also concerns about^[각주:47] the EU's treaties with^[각주:48] third countries^[각주:49], including free-trade^[각주:50] deals. Simply rolling these over when^[각주:51] Britain is no longer formally^[각주:52] a member may not be easy. Already third countries have objected to plans to^[각주:53] divide up^[각주:54] import quotas between^[각주:55] Britain and the EU. And legal doubts exist also on the British side, since the withdrawal bill now going through Parliament^[각주:56] will repeal^[각주:57] the 1972 European Communities Act. Catherine Barnard, a Cambridge law professor^[각주:58] who is a member of the UK in a Changing Europe academic network, points notably^[각주:59] to^[각주:60] uncertainty over^[각주:61] the supremacy of^[각주:62] EU law, created under section two of that act. 

Might there be another route to transition? One idea is temporary membership of^[각주:63] the European Economic Area (EEA)^[각주:64], which includes Norway and Iceland. But this may not be easy to negotiate, and it would strain Mrs May's promise to^[각주:65] avoid two adjustments^[각주:66]. Paul Daly, another Cambridge legal academic, believes the only legally watertight transition^[각주:67] is to extend Article 50's two-year deadline for^[각주:68] Brexit. This can be done by unanimous agreement^[각주:69]. Yet extension of EU membership beyond^[각주:70] March 2019, which would preclude trade talks with^[각주:71] third countries, might not be politically sellable in^[각주:72] Britain. 

For Brexiteers have a legitimate concern that^[각주:73] transition could turn into^[각주:74] a long-term prison which in effect^[각주:75] keeps Britain in the club as a rule-taker^[각주:76], not a rule-maker^[각주:77]. The EEA was originally conceived as^[각주:78] a transitional^[각주:79] arrangement^[각주:80], after all. And many suspect that Brexit will be betrayed. This week it emerged that^[각주:81] a Tory MP^[각주:82] (and party whip^[각주:83]) had written to^[각주:84] universities asking for details of how^[각주:85] they taught students about Brexit. The search for enemies of the people who might thwart the voters' choice in^[각주:86] June 2016 continues. 

1. turn out[prove]to be ; ~라고 판가름이 나다 [본문으로]
2. run out of ; (사람이) …을 다 써버리다, …이 없어지다; [물건]을 바닥내다 [본문으로]
3. negotiations ; [명사] 협상(복수형) [본문으로]
4. be due to ; ~할 예정이다 [본문으로]
5. make progress ; 진행하다, 전진하다, 진전을 보이다[이루다], 진보하다, 진척되다 [본문으로]
6. hence ; [부사] (격식) 이런 이유로 [본문으로]
7. avert ; [vn] 1. 방지하다, 피하다 [본문으로]
8. cliff-edge ; 절벽 끝, 벼랑 끝 [본문으로]
9. lobbying ; Lobbying, persuasion, or interest representation is the act of attempting to influence the actions, policies, or decisions of officials in their daily life, most often legislators or members of regulatory agencies. Lobbying is done by many types of people, associations and organized groups, including individuals in the private sector, corporations, fellow legislators or government officials, or advocacy groups (interest groups). Lobbyists may be among a legislator's constituencies, meaning a voter or bloc of voters within their electoral district, or not; they may engage in lobbying as a business, or not. Professional lobbyists are people whose business is trying to influence legislation, regulation, or other government decisions, actions, or policies on behalf of a group or individual who hires them. Individuals and nonprofit organizations can also lobby as an act of volunteering or as a small part of their normal job (for instance, a CEO meeting with a representative about a project important to their company, or an activist meeting with their legislator in an unpaid capacity). Governments often define and regulate organized group lobbying that has become influential. [본문으로]
10. seek agreement[accord, alignment] ; 동조를 구하다 [본문으로]
11. transitional ; [형용사] 변천하는; 과도적인, 과도기의 [본문으로]
12. form ; 3. MAKE SHAPE/FORM | [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] ~ sth (into sth) | ~ sth (from/of sth) (특정한 방식・형태로) 만들어 내다 [본문으로]
13. trading arrangement ; 무역 협정 [본문으로]
14. concede ; (참고: concession) 1. ~ sth (to sb) | ~ sb sth (무엇이 옳거나 논리적임을) 인정하다[수긍하다] [본문으로]
15. in principle ; 1. 원칙적으로[이론상으로는], 원론적으로 ;; 2. 대체적으로 [본문으로]
16. insist on ; [동사] …을 주장하다, …을 역설하다; …을 강요하다; …을 강조하다. ;; 동의어 ; emphasize; assert; demand. [본문으로]
17. implementation period ; (정책) 이행 기간 [본문으로]
18. semantic ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) (언어) 의미의, 의미론적인 ;; 미국·영국 [sɪ|mӕntɪk] [본문으로]
19. upset business ; 2. [타동사][VN] (계획・상황 등이) 잘못되게[틀어지게] 만들다 [본문으로]
20. in practice ; 실제는 [본문으로]
21. be covered in ; ~투성이다, ~로 덮여있다 [본문으로]
22. hit problems[trouble] ; 난관에 봉착하다 [본문으로]
23. prolong ; [타동사][VN] 연장시키다, 연장하다 ;; transition을 단수로 받았으면 prolongs가 되어야 ?! [본문으로]
24. acquis ; (short for, acquis communautaire) ;; (정치학) <용어>공동체기득권 [본문으로]
25. existing ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) 기존의, 현재 사용되는 [본문으로]
26. jurisdiction ; (격식) 1. [U , C] ~ (over sb/sth) | ~ (of sb/sth) (to do sth) 관할권; 사법권 ;; 2. [C] 관할 구역 [본문으로]
27. the European Court of Justice ; 유럽 재판소 ; officially just the Court of Justice (French: Cour de Justice), is the highest court in the European Union in matters of European Union law. As a part of the Court of Justice of the European Union it is tasked with interpreting EU law and ensuring its equal application across all EU member states. [본문으로]
28. participation in ; …에의 관여. [본문으로]
29. legal adviser ; 법률고문, 고문 변호사. [본문으로]
30. full monty ; [the ~] [영·속어] (필요한) 모든 것; 발가벗은 알몸뚱이, 사람들이 기대하는[원하는] 최대치 [본문으로]
31. on offer ; 1. 제공되는[이용/살 수 있는] ;; 2. (특히 英) 할인 판매 중인 [본문으로]
32. be subject to (laws) ; 지배를 받다 [본문으로]
33. have no say (in a matter) ; (구어) 발언권이 없다 [본문으로]
34. temporarily ; [부사] 일시적으로, 임시로 [본문으로]
35. retain ; [vn], (비교적 격식), (참고: retention , retentive) 1. (계속) 유지[보유]하다 ;; 3. (법률) (변호사 등과 지속적인 관계를) 유지하다 [본문으로]
36. budget decision ; 예산결정, 예산확정 [본문으로]
37. rebate ; 1. (초과 지불한 금액의) 환불 [본문으로]
38. carve-up ; [sing.] (英 비격식) (회사나 국가의) 분할 [본문으로]
39. legal issue ; 법률적 쟁점사항 [본문으로]
40. reckon ; 1. (비격식 특히 英) (…라고) 생각하다 [본문으로]
41. conform ; 2. ~ to/with sth (규칙・법 등에) 따르다[맞다] [본문으로]
42. withdrawal ; 2. [U] 탈퇴, 기권 [본문으로]
43. roll ; 4. MOVE (AS IF) ON WHEELS | (부드럽게) 굴러가다[구르듯이 가다]; 굴러가게 하다 [본문으로]
44. framework ; 2. ~ (of/for sth) (판단・결정 등을 위한) 틀 ;; 3. 체제, 체계 [본문으로]
45. workable ; 1. (시스템・아이디어 등이) 운용[실행] 가능한 [본문으로]
46. at all ; 2. [의문문에서] 조금이라도, 도대체, 이왕이면 ;; 3. [조건문에서] 이왕, 적어도 [본문으로]
47. concerns ; [명사] 걱정, 염려, 관심사 [본문으로]
48. treaty ; [명사] pl. -ies 조약 [본문으로]
49. third country ; (European Union) A country outside the European Union. [본문으로]
50. free trade ; [명사] 자유 무역 [본문으로]
51. roll sth over ; (빚의) 상환을 연장해 주다 [본문으로]
52. formally ; 1. 정식으로, 공식적으로 [본문으로]
53. object to sb/sth ; ~에 반대하다 ; to say that you disagree with, disapprove of or oppose something [본문으로]
54. divide up ; 분배하다, 나눠 갖다; 분담하다(… out) [본문으로]
55. import quota ; 수입 할당[쿼터] [본문으로]
56. go through ; (절차상 필요한, 특히 힘들거나 불쾌한) ~을 거치다[하다] [본문으로]
57. repeal ; [타동사][VN] (법률을) 폐지하다 [본문으로]
58. law professor ; 법학 교수 [본문으로]
59. notably ; 1. 특히 [본문으로]
60. point to ; (이유로) ~을 들먹이다 [본문으로]
61. uncertainty ; (pl. -ies) 1. [U] 불확실성; 반신반의 [본문으로]
62. supremacy ; [U] ~ (over sb/sth) 패권, 우위; 지상주의 ;; 미국∙영국 [su:|preməsi ; 英 또한 sju:|preməsi] [본문으로]
63. (a) temporary membership ; 임시 회원 자격. [본문으로]
64. the European Economic Area ; [명사] 유럽 경제 지역(EU 15개국과 EFTA 4개국이 참가하는 자유 시장; EEA). [본문으로]
65. strain ; 3. STRETCH TO LIMIT | [타동사][VN] 한계에 이르게 하다, 무리를 주다 [본문으로]
66. adjustment ; [C , U] 1. (약간의) 수정[조정] [본문으로]
67. watertight ; 2. (해명・계획・주장 등이) 빈틈없는 [본문으로]
68. extend ; 2. MAKE LONGER/LARGER/WIDER | [타동사][VN] 연장하다 [본문으로]
69. unanimous agreement ; 완전한 합의, 만장일치 [본문으로]
70. extension ; 4. EXTRA TIME | [C] ~ (of sth) (기간의) 연장 [본문으로]
71. preclude ; [동사] ~ sth | ~ sb from doing sth (격식) (~로 하여금 ~하지) 못하게 하다, (~가 ~하는 것을) 불가능하게 하다 ;; 미국·영국 [prɪ|klu:d] [본문으로]
72. sellable ; 판매가능한 ;; 흐름상 "설득력을 가지는, 잘 먹히는" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
73. legitimate concern ; 합당한, 타당한 우려 [본문으로]
74. turn sb/sth (from sth) into ; (~에서) ~이 되다[~으로 변하다] [본문으로]
75. in effect ; 사실상[실제로는] [본문으로]
76. taker ; 2. [흔히 합성어에서] (…을) 받는[섭취하는/복용하는] 사람 [본문으로]
77. maker ; 1. [C] [흔히 합성어에서] ~ (of sth) …을 만드는[생산하는] 사람[회사/기계] ;; 참고 ; holidaymaker, peacemaker, troublemaker [본문으로]
78. conceive ; (참고: conception) 1. ~ (of) sth (as sth) (격식) (생각・계획 등을) 마음속으로 하다[품다], 상상하다 [본문으로]
79. transitional ; [형용사] 변천하는; 과도적인, 과도기의 [본문으로]
80. arrangement ; 1. [C] [주로 복수로] ~ (for sth) 준비, 마련, 주선 ;; 2. [C] [주로 복수로] (처리) 방식 [본문으로]
81. emerge ; 2. (사실・생각 등이) 드러나다, 알려지다 [본문으로]
82. MP ; 1. 하원 의원(Member of Parliament) [본문으로]
83. party whip ; 정당원내총무 [본문으로]
84. write to ; …에게 편지를 보내다(=compose and send a letter to). [본문으로]
85. ask for ; (누구를 만나거나 어디를 가기 위해) ~에 대해 묻다[~를 찾다] [본문으로]
86. thwart ; [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] ~ sth | ~ sb (in sth) (계획 등을) 좌절시키다 ; 미국식 [θwɔ:rt] 영국식 [θwɔ:t] [본문으로]