티스토리 뷰
As the world marks the centenary of 1 2the October Revolution, Russia 3is once again under the rule of the tsar 4
Seventeen years after Vladimir Putin first became president, his grip on 5Russia is stronger than ever. The West, which still sees Russia in post-Soviet terms 6, sometimes ranks him as 7his country's most powerful leader since Stalin. Russians are increasingly looking to an earlier period of history 8 9. Both liberal reformers and conservative traditionalists in Moscow are talking about Mr Putin as a 21st-century tsar.
Mr Putin has earned that title by lifting his country out of what many Russians see as 10the chaos in the 1990s and by making it count again in 11the world. Yet as the centenary of the October revolution draws near 12, the uncomfortable thought has surfaced that 13Mr Putin shares the tsars' weaknesses 14, too.
Although Mr Putin worries about the "color" revolutions that swept through the former Soviet Union, 15the greater threat is not of a mass uprising 16, still less of a Bolshevik revival 17. It is that 18, from spring 2018 when Mr Putin starts what is constitutionally 19his last six-year term in office 20after an election that he will surely win 21, speculation will begin about what comes next. And the fear will grow that, as with other Russian rulers, Tsar Vladimir will leave turbulence 22and upheaval in his wake 23 24.
Firm rule
Mr Putin is hardly the world's only autocrat 25. Personalized authoritarian rule 26has spread across 27 28the world over the past 15 years - often, as with Mr Putin, built on the fragile base of a manipulated 29, winner-takes-all democracy 30. It is a rebuke to the liberal triumphalism 31 which followed the collapse of 32 33the Soviet Union. Leaders such as Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, the late Hugo Chávez of 34Venezuela and even Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, have behaved as if they enjoy a special authority derived directly from 35the popular will 36. In China Xi Jinping this week formalized his absolute command of 37 38the Communist Party.
Mr Putin's brand of authoritarianism 39 blazed the trail 40 41. It evokes 42Russia's imperial history 43, offering a vivid picture of how power works and how it might go wrong 44.
Like a tsar, Mr Putin surmounts a pyramid of 45 patronage 46 47. Since he moved against the oligarchs in 482001, taking control first of the media and then of the oil and gas giants, all access to power and money has been through 49him. These days the boyars 50serve at his pleasure 51, just as those beneath them serve at their pleasure and so on all the way down. He wraps his power in legal procedure 52 53, but everyone knows that the prosecutors 54and courts answer to him. He enjoys an approval rating of over 80% 55partly because he has persuaded Russians that, as an aide says 56, "If there is no Putin, there is no Russia."
Like a tsar, too, he has faced the question that has plagued Russia's rulers since 57Peter the Great - and which acutely confronted 58Alexander III and Nicholas II 59in the run-up to the revolution 60. Should Russia modernize 61by following the Western path towards 62civil rights 63and representative government 64, or should it try to lock in stability by holding fast against 65 66them? Mr Putin's answer has been to entrust the economy to liberal-minded 67 technocrats 68 69and politics to former KGB officers 70. Inevitably 71, politics has dominated economics 72and Russia is paying the price 73. However well administered during sanctions 74 75and a rouble devaluation 76 77, the economy still depends too heavily on natural resources 78. It can manage annual GDP growth of only around 2%, a far cry from 792000-08, which achieved on oil-fired 5-10%. 80In the long run 81, this will cramp Russia's ambitions 82.
And like a tsar, Mr Putin has buttressed his power through repression 83 84and military conflict. At home, in the name of stability, tradition and the Orthodox religion 85, he has suppressed political opposition 86and social liberals 87, including feminists, NGOs and gays. Abroad 88, his annexation of 89Crimea 90and the campaigns in Syria and Ukraine have been burnished for 91the evening news by a captive, triumphalist 92 93media. However justified, the West's outrage at 94his actions underlined to 95Russians how Mr Putin was once again asserting their country's strength after the humiliations of 96 97the 1990s.
What does this post-modern tsar mean for the world? One lesson is about the Russian threat. Since the interference in 98Ukraine, the West has worried about Russian revanchism elsewhere 99 100, especially in the Baltic states 101. But Mr Putin cannot afford large numbers of 102casualties without also losing legitimacy 103 104, as happened to Nicholas II in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 105and in the first world war. Because today's tsar knows history, he is likely to be opportunistic abroad 106, shadowboxing rather than risking 107 a genuine 108 confrontation 109 110. The situation at home is different. In his time in power 111Mr Putin has shown little appetite for harsh repression 112. But Russia's record of terrible suffering suggests that 113, whereas dithering 114 undermines the ruler's legitimacy 115, mass repression can strengthen it 116 117- at least for a time 118. The Russian people still have something to fear.
The other lesson is about succession 120. The October revolution is just the most extreme recent case of power in Russia passing from ruler to ruler 121through a time of troubles 122. Mr Putin cannot arrange his succession 123 using his bloodline 124or the Communist Party apparatus 125. Perhaps he will anoint a successor 126. But he would need someone weak enough for him to control and strong enough to see off rivals 127- an unlikely combination 128. Perhaps he will try to cling to power 129, as Deng Xiaoping did behind the scenes as head of 130the China Bridge Association, and Mr Xi may intend to overtly 131, having conspicuously avoided naming a successor after 132 133this week's party congress 134. Yet, even if Mr Putin became the éminence grise of 135the Russian Judo Federation, it would only delay the fatal moment 136. Without the mechanism of 137a real democracy to legitimize someone new, the next ruler 138is likely to emerge from 139a power struggle that 140could start to tear Russia apart 141. In a state with nuclear weapons, that is alarming 142.
The stronger Mr Putin is today, the harder he will find it to manage his succession. As the world tries to live with that paradox 143 144, it should remember that nothing is set in stone 145. A century ago the Bolshevik revolution was seen as an endorsement of 146 147Marx's determinism 148. In the event 149, it proved that nothing is certain and that history has its own tragic irony 150.
- mark ; 4. CELEBRATE | [타동사][VN] (중요 사건을) 기념[축하]하다 [본문으로]
- centenary ; [명사] (cen・ten・nial 美, 英) pl. -ies 100주년 ;; 참고 ; bicentenary, tercentenary ;; 미국식 [sen|tenəri] 영국식 [sen|ti:nəri] [본문으로]
- the October Revolution ; [the ~] 10월 혁명(Russian Revolution) ((러시아력 1917년 10월 25일(11월 7일)의 레닌의 혁명)) [본문으로]
- tsar ; (또한 tzar , czar) [명사] (제정 러시아 시대의) 황제 ;; 미국∙영국 [zɑ:(r)] [본문으로]
- grip ; 2. CONTROL/POWER | [sing.] ~ (on sb/sth) 통제, 지배 [본문으로]
- post - ; [접두사] (명사・동사・형용사에서) <‘… 후[다음/뒤]의'의 뜻> ;; 참고 ; ante-, pre- [본문으로]
- rank ; [진행형으로는 쓰이지 않음] 1. GIVE POSITION | ~ (sb) (as sth) (등급・등위・순위를) 매기다[평가하다]; (등급・등위・순위를) 차지하다 [본문으로]
- increasingly ; [부사] 점점 더, 갈수록 더 [본문으로]
- look to sth ; [동사] (개선 방안을 찾기 위해) ~을 생각해[고려해] 보다, 돌보다, 보살피다; …에 주의하다, 경계하다; 기대하다; …에 기대를 걸다. ;; 동의어 ; attend to; give attention to; expect; turn to, depend on. [본문으로]
- see as ; …로 상상하다, 간주하다(=visualize, consider acceptable). [본문으로]
- make it count ; 의미있게 만들다, 소중히하게 다루다, 중요하게 여기다 [본문으로]
- draw near ; 다가오다, 접근하다 [본문으로]
- surface ; 2. [자동사][V] (한동안 숨어 있던 것이 갑자기) 나타나다[드러나다], 표면화되다 [본문으로]
- weakness ; 1. [U] (힘・세력・각오 등이) 약함, 힘이 없음, 나약함 ;; 2. [C] 약점 [본문으로]
- sweep through ; 2. (군중·바람·유행·역병 따위가) …을 휩쓸고 지나가다 [본문으로]
- uprising ; [명사] ~ (against sth) 봉기, 반란, 폭동 [본문으로]
- revival ; 2. [C , U] 부흥, 재유행 [본문으로]
- it is that ; ([상대방의 말에 맞장구쳐서]) 정말로 그렇습니다. [본문으로]
- constitutionally ; 1. 입헌적으로, 헌법상 ;; 2. 나면서부터, 체질적으로 ;; 3. 구조상으로 [본문으로]
- in office ; 재직 중에 [본문으로]
- surely ; 3. (격식) 의심의 여지없이, 틀림없이 [본문으로]
- turbulence ; [U] 1. 격동, 격변 [본문으로]
- upheaval ; [C , U] 격변, 대변동 [본문으로]
- wake ; 2. (수면 위의) 배가 지나간 흔적[항적] [본문으로]
- autocrat ; 1. 전제 군주, 독재자 ;; 2. 전제 군주 같은 사람 [본문으로]
- personalize ; 2. (개인의 필요에) 맞추다 [본문으로]
- authoritarian rule ; 중앙집권, 독재 정권, 권위주의적인 통치 [본문으로]
- spread across ; ~ 전역에 퍼지다 [본문으로]
- manipulated ; 조작된 [본문으로]
- winner-take-all ; Of or pertaining to a contest, election, or other competition in which only the winner is rewarded and none of the losers get anything. [본문으로]
- rebuke ; an expression of strong disapproval 참고 ; reprimand [본문으로]
- triumphalism ; [U] (못마땅함) 승리주의 ;; 미국∙영국 [traɪ|ʌmfəlɪzəm] [본문으로]
- follow ;; 2. HAPPEN/DO AFTER | (시간・순서상으로) 뒤를 잇다; (결과가) 뒤따르다 [본문으로]
- the late ; 고인이 된 [본문으로]
- derive ; 2. <단어·관습 등이> …에서 비롯되다, <사람이> …의 유래를 찾다(trace);[종종 수동형으로] …에 기원을 두다, …에서 나오다 ((from)); 추론[추리]하다; <영화 등을> (소설에서) 각색하다 ((from)) [본문으로]
- popular will ; 대중적 의지 [본문으로]
- formalize ; 1. 공식화하다 ;; 2. 형식을 갖추다 [본문으로]
- absolute ; 4. 제한이 없는, 절대적인, 무소불위의 ;; 5. (상대적이 아닌) 절대적인 ;; 참고 ; relative [본문으로]
- brand ; 2. (특정한) 종류[유형] [본문으로]
- authoritarianism ; [U] 권위주의 [본문으로]
- blaze a[the] trail ; 새로운 길을 열다 [본문으로]
- evoke ; [타동사][VN] (격식) (감정・기억・이미지를) 떠올려 주다[환기시키다] [본문으로]
- imperial history ; 제국사 [본문으로]
- go wrong ; 3. (일이) 잘못되다[문제를 겪다] [본문으로]
- surmount ; [vn], (격식) 1. 극복하다 [본문으로]
- pyramid ; 4. 피라미드식 조직[체제] [본문으로]
- patronage ; [U] 2. (지지자들에게 그 대가로 하는) 지원[임용] [본문으로]
- oligarch ; (pl. -ies) 1. [U] 과두제, 과두 정부 ;; 2. [C+sing./pl. v.] 과두제 집권층 ;; 3. [C] 과두제 국가 [본문으로]
- be through ; to be connected to somebody (on the telephone) [본문으로]
- boyar ; [명사] (러시아) (옛날의) 귀족; (옛 루마니아의) 특권 계급 사람. (또는 boyard) [본문으로]
- at one's pleasure ; 수시로, 임의로, ~가 원하는 대로[~ 마음대로], 자유자재로 [본문으로]
- wrap ; 2. [타동사][VN] ~ A (up) in B | ~ B round/around A (보호 등을 하기 위해) 싸다[둘러싸다] ;; 참고 ; shrink-wrapped [본문으로]
- legal procedure ; 합법한 절차, 법적 절차 [본문으로]
- prosecutor ; 2. 기소 검사 [본문으로]
- approval rating ; (대통령 등에 대한) 지지율 [본문으로]
- aide ; [명사] 보좌관 [본문으로]
- plague ; [vn], [~ sb/sth (with sth)] 1. (한동안 고통・문제로) 괴롭히다 ;; 2. (요구・부탁 등으로) 성가시게 하다 [본문으로]
- acutely ; 1. ~ aware/conscious 강렬히, 절실히 ;; 2. 몹시(불쾌한 감정이 매우 강함을 나타낼 때 씀) [본문으로]
- confront ; [vn] 1. (문제나 힘든 상황이) 닥치다 [본문으로]
- run-up ; (英) 1. (드물게 |run-in) ~ (to sth) (중요 행사의) 준비[준비 기간] [본문으로]
- modernize ; 2. [자동사][V] (현대적인 장비・사상 등을 써서) 현대화하다 [본문으로]
- path ; 3. (행동) 계획; (목표에 이르는) 길 [본문으로]
- civil rights ; [pl.] 시민의 평등권(성별・인종・종교에 상관없이 모든 사회 구성원들에게 평등하게 부여되는 권리) [본문으로]
- representative government[system] ; 대의 정체[제도] [본문으로]
- lock in stability ; 가두다, 감금하다 ;; 흐름상 "고수하다, 변화를 주지 않다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- hold fast ; (교분 따위가) 굳게 유지되다 [본문으로]
- entrust ; [타동사][VN] ~ A (to B) | ~ B with A (일을) 맡기다 [본문으로]
- liberal-minded ; [형용사] 마음이 넓은, 관대한 [본문으로]
- technocrat ; [명사] 테크노크라트(많은 권력을 행사하는 과학 기술 분야 전문가) ;; [NOUN] A technocrat is a scientist, engineer, or other expert who is one of a group of similar people who have political power as well as technical knowledge. [본문으로]
- KGB ; [sing.] (구소련의) 국가 보안 위원회 [본문으로]
- inevitably ; 1. 필연적이다시피, 아니나 다를까 ;; 2. (흔히 유머) 예상한 대로 [본문으로]
- economics ; 2. [pl., U] (어떤 산업 분야・사회의) 자본 환경[조건] [본문으로]
- pay the price ; [동사] 대가를 지불하다[치르다]. ;; 동의어 ; pay the dues. [본문으로]
- administer ; [vn] 1. [흔히 수동태로] (회사・조직・국가 등을) 관리하다[운영하다] [본문으로]
- sanctions ; (정치학) <용어>제재(制裁), (무역) 제재 [본문으로]
- rouble ; [명사] 루블(러시아의 화폐 단위) [본문으로]
- devaluation ; 1. (경제) 평가 절하(平價切下)(opp. revaluation) ;; 2. 가치[신분]의 저하 [본문으로]
- natural resource ; [명사] 천연 자원 [본문으로]
- far cry ; (a ~) …와 전혀 다른[큰 격차가 있는](것); …에서 먼 거리에 있는 (것)(from). ;; 동의어 ; very different; quite some distance. [본문으로]
- oil-fired ; [형용사] 난방 시스템 등이 기름을 때는[연료로 하는] [본문으로]
- in the long run ; (앞으로 길게 보았을 때) 결국에는, 오래 달려간 끝에, 결국은. [본문으로]
- cramp ; [타동사][VN] (무엇의 발달이나 진행을) 막다[방해하다] [본문으로]
- buttress ; [타동사][VN] (격식) 지지하다, 힘을 실어 주다 ;; 미국∙영국 [|bʌtrəs] [본문으로]
- repression ; [U] 1. 탄압, 진압, 억압 [본문으로]
- Orthodox ; 3. 동방[그리스] 정교회의 [본문으로]
- suppress ; [vn] 1. (보통 못마땅함) (정부・통치자 등이) 진압하다 [본문으로]
- social liberal ; Of or pertaining to social liberalism [본문으로]
- abroad ; (특히 英) 1. 해외에(서), 해외로 [본문으로]
- annexation ; 1. [U] 부가, 첨가; (영토의) 합병 ;; 2. 부가물, 부록, 부대물; 합병지 [본문으로]
- Crimea ; 1. [the ~] 크림 반도 ((흑해 북쪽 해안의)) ;; 2. 크림 ((크림 반도에 있던 구소련 자치 공화국; 제2차 대전 후 우크라이나 공화국에 편입)) [본문으로]
- burnish ; [타동사][VN] (격식) (금속을) 윤[광]을 내다 [본문으로]
- captive ; 1. 사로잡힌, 억류된 ;; 2. [명사 앞에만 씀] 달리 어쩔 도리가 없는, 그 자리를 뜰 수가 없는 [본문으로]
- triumphalist ; [명사] 승리주의자. [본문으로]
- outrage ; 1. [U] 격분, 격노 [본문으로]
- underline ; (또한 under・score 특히 美) 1. [타동사][VN] 밑줄을 긋다[치다] ;; 2. 강조하다, 분명히 보여주다 [본문으로]
- assert ; 3. [타동사][VN] (자신의 권리・권위 등을) 확고히 하다 [본문으로]
- humiliation ; 1. 창피 줌[당함] ;; 2. 굴욕, 굴복; 창피, 면목 없음 [본문으로]
- interference ; [U] 1. ~ (in sth) 간섭, 참견, 개입, 방해 [본문으로]
- revanchism ; [U] 보복 정책(특히 한 국가가 영토를 되찾기 위해 취하는 정책) ;; 미국∙영국 [rɪ|vӕntʃɪzəm ; rɪ|vӕnʃɪzəm] [본문으로]
- elsewhere ; [부사] (어딘가) 다른 곳에서[으로] [본문으로]
- Baltic States ; [the ~] 발트 제국 ((Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, 때로 Finland도 포함)) [본문으로]
- afford ; 1. [수동태로는 안 씀.특히 부정문이나 의문문에서 보통 can, could, be able to와 함께 쓰여] (…을 살・할・금전적・시간적) 여유[형편]가 되다 [본문으로]
- casualties ; 사상자 [본문으로]
- legitimacy ; 1. 합법성, 적법; 합리[타당]성 ;; 2. 적출(嫡出); 정통, 정계(正系) [본문으로]
- the Russo-Japanese war ; [the ~] 러일 전쟁(1904-5) [본문으로]
- opportunistic ; [형용사] 1. (못마땅함) ;; 동의어 ; opportunist ; [형용사] (또한 op・por・tun・is・tic) [주로 명사 앞에 씀] (흔히 못마땅함) 기회주의적인; 우발적인 [본문으로]
- shadowbox ; [자동사] (가상의 상대를 만들어 놓고) 혼자서 권투를 연습하다 [본문으로]
- risk ; 2. …을 각오해야 할 짓을 하다, …의 위험을 무릅쓰다 [본문으로]
- genuine ; 2. 진실한, 진심 어린 [본문으로]
- confrontation ; [U , C] ~ (with sb) | ~ (between A and B) 대치, 대립 [본문으로]
- in power ; 권력의 자리에 있는, 정권을 쥐고 있는. ;; 참고 ; out of (the) power [본문으로]
- appetite ; 2. [C] ~ (for sth) 욕구 [본문으로]
- suffering ; 1. [U] (육체적・정신적) 고통 [본문으로]
- whereas ; ~하지만, 반면에 ; 1. (두 가지 사실을 비교・대조할 때 씀) [본문으로]
- dither ; [자동사][V] ~ (over sth) (결정을 못 내리고) 머무적거리다[망설이다] ;; 미국∙영국 [|dɪðə(r)] [본문으로]
- undermine ; [vn] 1. (특히 자신감・권위 등을) 약화시키다 ;; 2. 기반을 약화시키다 [본문으로]
- strengthen ; [동사] 강화되다, 강력해지다; 강화하다, 더 튼튼하게 하다 [본문으로]
- for a time ; 당분간(은), 잠시; 임시로 [본문으로]
- offspring ; (pl. off・spring), (격식 또는 유머) 1. 자식 ;; 2. (동식물의) 새끼 [본문으로]
- succession ; 3. [U] 승계, 계승; 승계권 [본문으로]
- ruler ; 1. 통치자, 지배자 ;; 2. (길이 측정・줄긋기에 쓰는) 자 [본문으로]
- pass from ... to ; ...에서 ~로 옮겨지다, 전파되다 [본문으로]
- arrange ; 1. 마련하다, (일을) 처리[주선]하다 [본문으로]
- bloodline ; [명사] (전문 용어) (사람・동물의) 혈통 [본문으로]
- apparatus ; (pl. ap・par・atuses) 2. [C] [주로 단수로] (특히 정당・정부의) 조직체[기구] ;; 미국식 [|ӕpə|rӕtəs] 영국식 [|ӕpə|reɪtəs] [본문으로]
- anoint ; 흐름상 "지명하다, 선정하다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- see off ; 2. (英) ~를 쫓아내다 ;; 3. (英) (경기·싸움 등에서) ~를 물리치다 [본문으로]
- unlikely ; (un・like・lier , un・likeli・est), (more unlikely와 most unlikely가 흔히 쓰인다.) 1. ~ (to do sth) | ~ (that…) …할[일] 것 같지 않은, 있음직하지[있을 것 같지] 않은 ;; 2. [명사 앞에만 씀] (일반적인) 예상 밖의 ;; 3. [명사 앞에만 씀] 믿기 힘든 [본문으로]
- cling to ; ~을 고수하다[~에 매달리다] ;; 동의어 ; cling on to something [본문으로]
- behind the scene ; 무대 뒤에서 / 이면에서 / 은밀히. [본문으로]
- overtly ; [부사] 명백히, 공공연하게 [본문으로]
- conspicuously ; [부사] 눈에 띄게, 두드러지게 [본문으로]
- name ; 4. ~ sb (as) sth | ~ sb (to sth) (일자리・직책에) 지명[임명]하다 [본문으로]
- party congress ; 당대회 [본문으로]
- éminence grise ; ((pl. é·mi·nences grises[~])) 심복, 앞잡이; 숨은 실력자, 배후 인물 ;; 미국∙영국 [èiminɑ́:ns-ɡrí:z] [본문으로]
- fatal ; 2. 치명적인, 돌이킬 수 없는 (사태를 초래하는) [본문으로]
- mechanism ; 2. (목적을 달성하기 위한) 방법, 메커니즘 [본문으로]
- legitimize ; [vn], (격식) 1. 정당화하다 ;; 2. 합법화하다 ;; 3. (사생아를[에게]) 적출로 만들다[적출과 동등한 권리를 주다] [본문으로]
- emerge from ; ~에서 벗어나다, 나오다 [본문으로]
- power struggle ; 권력 투쟁 [본문으로]
- tear apart ; 2. (국가·조직 등을) 서로 물어뜯게 만들다[분열시키다] [본문으로]
- alarming ; [형용사] 걱정스러운, 두려운 [본문으로]
- live with ; [동사] …와 동거하다; 수용하다, 화합하다, 용납하다, ~을 감수하다 ;; 동의어 ; share home with; accept, receive, acknowledge, tolerate. [본문으로]
- paradox ; 1. [C] 역설적인 사람[것/상황] ;; 2. [C , U] 역설 [본문으로]
- be set[carved] in stone ; unable to be changed [본문으로]
- be seen as ; ~로 보이다, 간주되다 [본문으로]
- endorsement ; [C , U] 1. (공개적인) 지지 [본문으로]
- determinism ; [U] (철학) 결정론 ;; [NOUN] Determinism is the belief that all actions and events result from other actions, events, or situations, so people cannot in fact choose what to do. [본문으로]
- in the event ; 막상 닥쳐 보니[정작은], 결국 [본문으로]
- tragic irony ; [U] (전문 용어) 비극적 아이러니(등장인물의 행동・생각을 독자・관객은 알지만 이야기 속의 상대 인물은 모르는 것) [본문으로]