[Annotated] Why China is wrong to be furious about THAAD

The deployment of an American anti-missile system in South Korea does not threaten China's nuclear weapons

The Chinese authorities are so angry with South Korea that they have cheered on^[각주:1] boycotts of South Korean goods and culture, persecuted^[각주:2] South Korean firms operating in China and discouraged Chinese tourists from visiting South Korea. China is South Korea's biggest market for exports (it spent $137bn on South Korean goods in 2015, nearly twice as much as the next biggest taker^[각주:3], America), so the prospect of a prolonged^[각주:4] dispute is alarming^[각주:5]. It is also puzzling, given that the source of the row - the deployment of an American anti-missile system called THAAD (pictured on the article) - does not seem nearly as objectionable^[각주:6] as China suggests.

Earlier this month America began installing a THAAD system in South Korea. As if to confirm the rationale^[각주:7] for deployment, the previous day North Korea had fired four missiles into the East Sea of Korea, in what appeared to be a simulated^[각주:8] attack on an American base^[각주:9]. Last year North Korea conducted more than 20 ballistic-missile tests in defiance of^[각주:10] UN Security Council resolutions^[각주:11]. If anything^[각주:12], the tempo of missile launches has increased this year. This week saw the testing of a powerful new rocket engine and an abortive^[각주:13] missile launch. Yet China's foreign ministry has long fulminated against^[각주:14] THAAD. It greeted^[각주:15] the deployment by declaring its "firm opposition and strong dissatisfaction".

In Seoul last week America's secretary of state^[각주:16], Rex Tillerson, called on the South Korean government to stand firm in its support for THAAD and described China's behavior as "inappropriate and troubling". Moon Jae-in, the front-runner^[각주:17] in South Korea's presidential election, which will be held on May 9th, has said he will review the deployment, but has been careful not to promise to reverse^[각주:18] it.

China has expressed two related criticisms of THAAD, which stands for^[각주:19] Terminal High Altitude Area Defence^[각주:20]. The first is that the powerful radar that THAAD uses to track^[각주:21] and hit targets has the capability of "seeing" far into^[각주:22] China and thus could be used to undermine the effectiveness of China's own nuclear arsenal^[각주:23]. The second is that the system, which is designed to intercept and destroy short-and intermediate-range ballistic missiles^[각주:24] during their descent^[각주:25] (terminal^[각주:26]) phase^[각주:27], at altitudes of 40-150km, would not be effective because Seoul is so close to North Korean missile launchers. The implication^[각주:28], again, is that China is the real target.

Neither of these arguments is convincing. In the first place, there are already two THAAD radars in Japan, which can see into China, albeit^[각주:29] not quite as far as the radar going into South Korea. Michael Elleman, a missile-defence expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, says that the THAAD radar in South Korea might pick up Chinese missiles bound for^[각주:30] the West Coast of America in their boost phase^[각주:31], but the advantage it would give would be "quite marginal^[각주:32]". THAAD interceptors in South Korea cannot be used to hit Chinese missiles in their launch or boost phase and are in the wrong place to hit missiles attacking America in their terminal phase^[각주:33].

Moreover, the radar in South Korea will be configured in^[각주:34] "terminal" rather than "look" mode. It takes a software change and about five hours to switch modes, but doing so would render^[각주:35] THAAD useless against North Korean missiles, which pose a grave and immediate threat^[각주:36] to the 28,500 American troops^[각주:37] in South Korea.

America says it has repeatedly offered Chinese officials technical briefings on the radar's capabilities and limitations. They have shown little interest, possibly because they do not really disagree about the threat THAAD represents. Chinese military analysts have boasted of^[각주:38] China's ability to "blind" THAAD (meaning to incapacitate^[각주:39] it through electronic interference) - a further indication that the outrage is politically motivated.

It is also wrong to suggest that THAAD does nothing to protect South Korea from the North. In a paper for 38 North, a website, Mr Ellenman and Michael Zagurek calculate that faced with 50-missile salvoes^[각주:40], a layered defence^[각주:41] consisting of South Korea's Patriot system and two THAAD batteries (another may be deployed when it is available) would probably destroy 90% of incoming land-based missiles^[각주:42]. The threat that one of the 10% getting through might be carrying a nuclear warhead^[각주:43] would not be eliminated. But South Korea is a lot safer with THAAD than without it.

It is possible that China really does fear that one day its land-based nuclear forces might be hemmed in by^[각주:44] an integrated American missile-defence system stretching from Japan to India. That is a remote prospect at both the political and the technical level but, by opposing THAAD's deployment in South Korea, China may be hoping to nip such a possibility in the bud^[각주:45].

It is more likely, however, that China, always resentful of^[각주:46] the presence of American troops so near its borders, sees an opportunity to use THAAD to weaken Ameica's alliance with South Korea. It may hope that its bullying might yet pressure South Korea's next president into^[각주:47] reversing the deployment. If that is the intention, however, it has probably overplayed its hand^[각주:48], raising Korean hackles^[각주:49] with its blatantly^[각주:50] coercive^[각주:51] methods.

Donald Trump is about to have his first meeting with China's president, Xi Jinping. There will be plenty of thorny issues^[각주:52] to discuss. But when it comes to THAAD, the unpredictable Mr Trump can deliver a reasonable message: the problem is not missile defence, but the belligerence of^[각주:53] North Korea which makes it necessary, and which Mr Xi has done too little to restrain^[각주:54].

1. cheer on ; ~를 응원하다 [본문으로]
2. persecute ; 1. ~ sb (for sth) (특히 인종・종교・정치적 이유로) 박해하다 [본문으로]
3. taker ; 1. [주로 복수로] (제의 등에) 선뜻 응하는 사람 [본문으로]
4. prolonged ; [형용사] 오래 계속되는, 장기적인 [본문으로]
5. alarming ; [형용사] 걱정스러운, 두려운 [본문으로]
6. objectionable ; [형용사] (격식) 불쾌한, 무례한 [본문으로]
7. rationale ; [명사] ~ (behind/for/of sth) (격식) (특정한 결정・행동 방침・신조 등의) 이유[근거] ;; US [|rӕʃə|nӕl] / UK [|rӕʃə|nɑ:l] [본문으로]
8. simulated ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) 모조의, 모의의, 가장된 [본문으로]
9. base ; 6. OF ARMY, NAVY, etc. | [C , U] (군사) 기지 [본문으로]
10. in defiance of ; [법·명령 따위]를 무시하여, 무릅쓰고 [본문으로]
11. resolution ; 1. [C] 결의안 [본문으로]
12. if anything ; (의견을 나타내어) 어느 편인가 하면; 오히려(부정문 뒤에서 그 반대가 사실임을 나타냄) [본문으로]
13. abortive ; [형용사] (격식) 일이 무산된, 유산된, 수포로 돌아간 [본문으로]
14. fulminate ; [동사] ~ against (sb/sth) (격식) 맹렬히 비판하다 [본문으로]
15. greet ; 2. [주로 수동태로] ~ sb/sth (with/as sth) (특정한) 반응을 보이다, 받아들이다 [본문으로]
16. secretary of state ; [美] 국무장관(國務長官) / [英] 국무상(國務相) [본문으로]
17. front runner ; [명사] 가장 유력한 우승 후보, 선두주자(말), 선구자 [본문으로]
18. reverse ; 2. CHANGE TO OPPOSITE | [타동사][VN] (결정 등을) 뒤집다 [본문으로]
19. stand for ; 1. (진행형으로는 쓰이지 않음) (약어나 상징물이) ~을 나타내다[의미하다] [본문으로]
20. THAAD ; [명사] 고공 전역 방어(지역 방위용의 지상 발사 탄도탄 요격 미사일 체계), 고고도 미사일방어체계 [본문으로]
21. track ; 2. FOLLOW | (특히 특수 전자 장비를 이용하여) 추적하다 [본문으로]
22. see into ; 2. …을 살피다, 조사하다; …을 간파하다 [본문으로]
23. arsenal ; 1. (집합적) 무기 2. 무기 공장, 무기고 [본문으로]
24. ballistic missile ; [명사] 탄도 미사일 [본문으로]
25. descent ; 1. [C] [주로 단수로] 내려오기, 내려가기, 하강, 강하 [본문으로]
26. terminal ; 4. [명사 앞에만 씀] (격식 또는 전문 용어) (…의) 끝[말]의 [본문으로]
27. phase ; 1. (변화・발달 과정상의 한) 단계[시기/국면] [본문으로]
28. implication ; 1. [C] [주로 복수로] ~ (for/of sth) (행동・결정이 초래할 수 있는) 영향[결과] ;; 통역시에는 "여기서 드러나는 사실은" 정도로 풀어서 하는 것이 좋음 [본문으로]
29. albeit ; [접속사] (격식) 비록 …일지라도 [본문으로]
30. bound for ; [형용사] ~행의. [본문으로]
31. boost phase ; 발사 단계 [본문으로]
32. marginal ; 1. 미미한, 중요하지 않은 [본문으로]
33. terminal phase ; (군사) 미사일발사 최종단계 ▶대기권에 진입으로부터 폭발하는 단계 [본문으로]
34. be configured ; 흐름상 사드가 "설치된다"는 식으로 통역하는게 좋음 [본문으로]
35. render ; 1. CAUSE SB/STH TO BE STH | [타동사][VN-ADJ] (격식) (어떤 상태가 되게) 만들다[하다] ;; make와 같은 의미라고 봐도 무방 [본문으로]
36. pose a threat ; 위협이 되다 [본문으로]
37. troop ; 1. [pl.] troops (특히 대규모의) 병력, 군대 [본문으로]
38. boast of ; ~을 뽐내다, 자랑하다 [본문으로]
39. incapacitate ; [타동사][VN] [주로 수동태로] (격식) (질병 등이) 정상적인 생활을 하지 못하게 만들다 [본문으로]
40. salvo ; [명사] pl. -os 또는 -oes 일제 사격[투하]; 기습 공격 [본문으로]
41. layered defense (defence) ; (군사) (적의 미사일 등에 대한) 층상(層狀)[다층(多層)] 방위 [본문으로]
42. land-based missile ; 육상기지발사 미사일 [본문으로]
43. warhead ; [명사] (미사일의) 탄두 [본문으로]
44. be hemmed in by ; ~에게 포위되다 ;; hem sth/sb in ; ~을 (꼼짝 못하게) 둘러싸다 [본문으로]
45. nip sth in the bud ; (문제가 될 소지가 있으므로) ~의 싹을 없애다, 미연에 방지하다; …을 초기에 끝내게 하다 [본문으로]
46. resentful of ; …에 대해 분개한, ...에 화를내어 ...에 불끈하여 [본문으로]
47. pressure into ; …하도록 압력을 가하다. [본문으로]
48. overplay one's hand ; 자기 역량을 과신하다; 우쭐대다가 큰 코를 다치다 [본문으로]
49. raise one's hackles ; 화나게 만들다. ;; hackles ; [명사] (개・고양이 등이 화가 나거나 하면 곤두서는) 목 뒷부분의 털 [본문으로]
50. blatantly ; [부사] 주제넘게, 뻔뻔스럽게. [본문으로]
51. coercive ; [형용사] (격식) 강압[강제]적인 [본문으로]
52. thorny issue ; 민감한 사안, 곤란한 문제 [본문으로]
53. belligerence ; [U] 1. 호전성, 투쟁성 [본문으로]
54. restrain ; 3. (더 왕성해지지 못하도록) 억제하다 [본문으로]