[Annotated] Despite Germany's exit, this World Cup has been quite predictable

Of the 16 teams most likely to qualify, 14 have reached the knockout rounds^[각주:1]

It will go down as one of the greatest upsets^[각주:2] in^[각주:3] World Cup history. On June 27th Germany exited the tournament at^[각주:4] the group stage^[각주:5], marking the first time that the country had failed to reach the quarter-finals since^[각주:6] 1938. The debacle was^[각주:7] all the more^[각주:8] astounding for^[각주:9] its farcical conclusion^[각주:10]. The reigning world champions^[각주:11] lost 2-0 to a South Korean side^[각주:12] that had already been eliminated^[각주:13], and which delivered the knockout blow when^[각주:14] the German goalkeeper ventured into^[각주:15] the opposition half, leaving his goal wide open. 

Fans around the world reacted with^[각주:16] equal measures of shock^[각주:17] and Schadenfreude^[각주:18] as Germany finished bottom of the group^[각주:19], so familiar were they with Die Mannschaft's^[각주:20] inevitable procession to^[각주:21] the tournament's final week. Before this summer's edition^[각주:22] kicked off^[각주:23], The Economist  published a statistical analysis of^[각주:24] the sporting and economic factors that have historically allowed countries to excel on^[각주:25] the football pitch^[각주:26]. We found that Germany ought to dominate all others, given its wealth, passion for the game and excellent grassroots organization^[각주:27]. 

We also identified it as a paragon of how to^[각주:28] overhaul a failing youth system^[각주:29]. Between 1990 and 2005 Germany underachieved^[각주:30] relative to our model's expectations by^[각주:31] about a third of a goal per game. So its clubs and national football association invested in a massive revamp of^[각주:32] the academy system, spending at least €1bn ($1.2bn) since 2001, and vastly increasing the quantity and quality of coaching for youngsters^[각주:33]. The national team has performed roughly^[각주:34] in line with our model's very high expectations since^[각주:35] 2006, culminating in^[각주:36] World Cup glory four years ago. 

What went wrong? There are two obvious explanations: a dwindling stock of^[각주:37] world-class players and their poor organization on the field. Start with the players. Though many football statisticians^[각주:38] have created player-rating systems^[각주:39], most of them have been devised since^[각주:40] the last World Cup. A less objective method - but one that has proved insightful when tracking^[각주:41] other national declines^[각주:42], such as that of Italy - is to examine votes for the Ballon d'Or^[각주:43], an annual vote by journalists for the world's best player. Five Germans were shortlisted in 2013, and six in 2014; but only three in 2015 and 2016, and just two last year. The quality of the Bundesliga also seems to have dwindled. Four years ago German teams occupied four of the top 25 spots in Europe according to ClubElo.com, a website that rates sides using^[각주:44] the Elo formula. Today, there is only one: Bayern Munich. 

Yet even with that decline, Germany still had a remarkably talented squad^[각주:45]. 21st Club, a football consultancy, reckoned that its roster was^[각주:46] the second-strongest at the World Cup. The greater problem seemed to be turning the players into an effective team. Germany's form^[각주:47] coming into the competition was^[각주:48] dismal^[각주:49], with just one win in six matches: a narrow 2-1 victory against^[각주:50] a weak Saudi Arabia. Indeed, on the eve of^[각주:51] the tournament most forecasters were^[각주:52] far less confident about Germany's chances than the betting markets. 

Gamblers on Betfair's exchange reckoned the reigning champions had a 16% chance of retaining their title^[각주:53]. However, Gracenote Sports, an analytics company that produced forecasts based on^[각주:54] team's performances, gave them just 8%. 21st Club's team-based prediction was just 5%, rising to 10% when including player strength. Goldman Sachs, which also included player measurements, had Germany at 11%, with FiveThirtyEight, a statistics website using a similar methodology^[각주:55], the most generous at 13%. 

In every case, the boffins were^[각주:56] more bearish^[각주:57] than the bettors^[각주:58]. Perhaps the gamblers were pricing in^[각주:59] Germany's much-fabled^[각주:60] composure^[각주:61] under pressure^[각주:62], derived largely from a strong record in penalty shoot-outs. Alas, most of the evidence suggests that penalty-taking is random, and that the Germans have probably been a bit lucky. Besides, the current crop are^[각주:63] mediocre^[각주:64] from the spot. Thomas Müller, Germany's most experienced taker^[각주:65], has converted 79% of his career attempts, which is a hair over the average in major leagues. The average rate for his team's other attacking options - Marco Reus, Timo Werner, Mario Gómez and Mesut Özil - is 74%. 

In the end, Die Mannschaft got nowhere near a shoot-out. The same deficiencies that^[각주:66] the forecasters had detected before the tournament showed up almost immediately. The Germans played with similar tactics to the ones they used in 2014: dominating possession with short passes in the opposition half, and holding a high defensive line. But unlike four years ago, the team lacked a robust^[각주:67] defensive presence in midfield. Philipp Lahm, a wing-back who had converted into a holding midfielder^[각주:68], retired in 2014. Sami Khedira, who hoovered up^[각주:69] loose passes^[각주:70] four years ago, looked weary this time around^[각주:71]. That left the team exposed to counter-attacks^[각주:72], a weakness that Mexico, Sweden and South Korea cunningly^[각주:73] exploited^[각주:74]. Of the four goals that Germany conceded^[각주:75], three came from mistakes in midfield that allowed the opposition to break quickly through the unprotected defence. 

At the other end of the pitch, Germany's attackers proved^[각주:76] fruitless^[각주:77]. Though they had the majority of possession, they struggled to break down three organized defences. They took 72 shots, more than any other team in the tournament, but mostly from speculative positions^[각주:78]. Expected goals, a statistic that estimates how many goals a team should score given the quality of its chances, reckoned they should have found the net four times^[각주:79]. That is two more than they actually mustered^[각주:80], but still as many as they conceded. Mr Werner, the 22-year-old striker leading the attack, looked particularly out of his depth^[각주:81], managing just seven attempts on goal. 

It would be easy to blame Germany's inability to^[각주:82] create scoring opportunities on^[각주:83] a lack of cohesion^[각주:84]. In each combination of four forwards^[각주:85] that Joachim Low, the coach, selected in the three matches, none of the quarter had played together at club level. By contrast^[각주:86], in 2014 he selected the same attacking quarter in the last three knockout matches, three of whom had played for Bayern Munich. Football analysts have found that, in domestic leagues at least, consistency in selection^[각주:87] does not seem to improve a team's future performance. But it is possible that international teams, which get only a few weeks to practice each year, may benefit from having more shared experience between players. 

Goliath beats David

For many onlookers^[각주:88], Germany's departure at the group stage^[각주:89] proved that^[각주:90] this World Cup has been particularly unpredictable. The reigning champions were far from the only highly rated side to look sluggish^[각주:91]. Argentina scraped through to the next round with^[각주:92] a late winner against^[각주:93] Nigeria, having drawn to Iceland^[각주:94]. Spain needed an injury-time^[각주:95] equalizer against^[각주:96] Moroccon to secure qualification, while Portugal drew with^[각주:97] Iran. Until the 90th minute of a game against Costa Rica, Brazil looked on course to draw its first two matches^[각주:98]. 

Yet the draw for the knockout rounds tells a very different story. Only two teams from outside of Europe and South America have qualified^[각주:99], the lowest figure in 20 years. No African side will feature^[각주:100], for the first time since the round-of-16 was introduced in 1986. Of the 16 teams that the forecasters thought were most likely to progress, 14 did. Only Germany and Poland failed (Gracenote also picked Peru as a probably candidate, ahead of^[각주:101] eventual^[각주:102] qualifiers Denmark^[각주:103]). Gracenote, 21st Club and Goldman Sachs each gave Germany at least a one-in-five chance of exiting at the ground stage. Overall^[각주:104], the uncertainty in^[각주:105] their predictions suggested that four or five of the most fancied qualifiers^[각주:106] would normally be packing their bags after the second week. 

Indeed^[각주:107], in 2014 there were four major casualties^[각주:108] before the round-of-16: Portugal, England, Italy and Spain. The Germans are the fourth of the last five reigning champions to suffer such a calamity^[각주:109]. That no other footballing powerhouse^[각주:110] has joined them will be little consolation for^[각주:111] the country's grieving fans^[각주:112]. 

1. knockout ; [명사 앞에만 씀] 1. (특히 英) (시합이) 승자 진출식의(우승자만 다음 단계로 올라가는) ;; 참고 ; knockout rounds, knockout stages [본문으로]
2. upset ; [명사] 1. [U] (예기치 않은) 혼란 상황[문제/곤경] ;; 2. [C] (경기・대회 등에서) 예상 밖의 승리[우승] [본문으로]
3. go down as ; …으로서 기록되다 [본문으로]
4. exit ; (참고: exeunt) 1. (격식) 나가다, 떠나다; 퇴장하다 [본문으로]
5. group stage ; (sports) the stage of a competition where teams in the same group play each other, usually before the knockout stage. [본문으로]
6. quarter-final ; [명사] 스포츠 대회 등에서 준준결승 ;; 참고 ; semi-final 준결승 [본문으로]
7. debacle ; [명사] 대실패, 큰 낭패 ;; 빙하의 붕괴 ; 산사태 ; (정권 따위의) 와해 ; (시장의 붕괴, 폭락 ; (군대의) 총퇴진, 패주. ;; 미국·영국 [deɪ|bɑ:kl;dɪ|bɑ:kl] [본문으로]
8. all the more ; (그만큼) 더, 더욱더, 오히려 [본문으로]
9. astounding ; [형용사] 경악스러운, 믿기 어려운 ;; 몹시 놀라게 하는, 망연자실하게 하는, 간담이 서늘한, 놀라운, 깜짝 놀라게 하는, 놀랄만한 [본문으로]
10. farcical ; [형용사] 웃음거리가 된 ;; 익살맞은; 웃기는; 익살극의, 시시한, 터무니없는 [본문으로]
11. reigning champion ; 현 챔피언[선수권 보유자] [본문으로]
12. side ; 17. SPORTS TEAM | [C] (英) (스포츠) 팀 [본문으로]
13. eliminate ; 2. [타동사][VN] [주로 수동태로] ~ sb (from sth) (시합 등에서) 탈락시키다 [본문으로]
14. deliver ; 7. THROW | [타동사][VN] (타격 등을) 가하다; (공 등을) 던지다 [본문으로]
15. venture into[on] ; (위험을 무릅쓰고) ~을 하다, ~을 감행하다 [본문으로]
16. react with ; …에 반응을 보이다. [본문으로]
17. measure ; [명사] 4. [U, C] 분량, 정도, 도수(degree); 한도, 제한, 적당(한 양); (넘어서는 안 될) 한도, 한계. [본문으로]
18. schadenfreude ; [명사] (독어에서) 남의 불행에 대해 갖는 쾌감 ;; 미국·영국 [|ʃɑ:dnfrɔɪdə] [본문으로]
19. finish ; 4. (경주・대회 등의 끝에 어떤 위치・상태로[가]) 끝나다[되다] [본문으로]
20. Die Mannschaft ; German for 'The Team' but is often used as a nickname for the German national football team. [본문으로]
21. procession ; 1. [C , U] (특히 의식의 일부로 하는) 행진; 행렬 ;; 2. [C] (차례로 나타나는 사람들의) 줄[행렬] [본문으로]
22. edition ; (pl. editions[-z]) 1. (간행물의) 판(版); (동일판의) 1회 발행[생산] 부수; (어떤 판의) 한 권[부](*개정·증보 없이 증쇄(增刷)되는 경우에는 printing, impression을 쓴다). ;; 2. [수식어와 함께] (판형·장정·권수 따위 간행 형태에서 본) 판, 본(本); (특정 편집자·인쇄소 등에 의한) 판. ;; 3. (신문의) 판, (특정일의 특정의) 판; (잡지의) 호; (연속물[프로]의) 1회분. [본문으로]
23. kick off ; (축구) 경기가 시작되다[경기를 시작하다] ;; (~을) 시작하다, (토론·회의·행사 등을) 시작하다 [본문으로]
24. statistical analysis ; [명사] (수학) 통계분석(統計分析) [본문으로]
25. excel on ; (-ll-) 1. [자동사][V] ~ (in/at sth/at doing sth) 뛰어나다, 탁월하다 [본문으로]
26. football pitch ; A playing field on which the game of football is played. [본문으로]
27. grassroots ; (英) [pl.] 흔히 the grass roots 민초, 보통 사람들[구성원들] [본문으로]
28. paragon ; 1. 모범, 본보기, 전형(典型), 귀감; 매우 우수한 사람, 걸물(傑物) ;; 미국식 [|pӕrəgɑ:n] 영국식 [|pӕrəgən] [본문으로]
29. failing ; [형용사] 약해 가는, 쇠한 [본문으로]
30. underachieve ; [자동사][V] 자기 능력 이하의 성적을 내다 ;; (기대된) 능력보다 낮은 성적을 얻다 [본문으로]
31. relative to ; 1. …에 관하여 ;; 2. …에 비례하여 [본문으로]
32. revamp ; 2. 혁신, 개조, 개작 [본문으로]
33. youngster ; 1. 젊은이(young man, lad) ; 어린이(child), (특히) 소년(boy)(cf. oldster). [본문으로]
34. roughly ; 2. 거칠게. ;; 3. 난폭하게, 사납게. ;; 4. 조야하게, 상스럽게 ; 버릇없게, 무뚝뚝하게. [본문으로]
35. in line with ; ~와 비슷한; ~와 긴밀히 연결되도록 ;; ...와 함께...에 따라. ;; ~의 방침에 의거 [본문으로]
36. culminate ; [자동사][V] ~ (in/with sth) (격식) (~으로) 끝이 나다[막을 내리다] [본문으로]
37. dwindling ; [형용사] (점차) 줄어드는 [본문으로]
38. statistician ; [명사] 통계 전문가, 통계학자 ;; 미국·영국 [|stӕtɪ|stɪʃn] [본문으로]
39. rating ; 1. [C] (상대적인 인기・중요성 등의) 순위[평가] ;; 참고 ; credit rating [본문으로]
40. devise ; [타동사][VN] 창안[고안]하다 ;; 미국∙영국 [dɪ|vaɪz] [본문으로]
41. track ; 3. FOLLOW | (진행・전개 과정을) 추적하다 ;; 참고 ; fast-track [본문으로]
42. decline ; [C , U] [주로 단수로] ~ (in sth) | ~ (of sth) (수・가치・품질 등의 지속적인) 감소[하락/축소] [본문으로]
43. Ballon d'Or ; The Ballon d'Or (French pronunciation: ​[balɔ̃ dɔʁ]; "Golden Ball") is an annual football award presented by France Football. It has been awarded since 1956, although between 2010 and 2015, an agreement was made with FIFA and the award was temporarily merged with the FIFA World Player of the Year, and known as the FIFA Ballon d'Or. However, the partnership ended in 2016 and the award was reversed back to Ballon d'Or, while FIFA also renamed its traditional award. Conceived by sports writer Gabriel Hanot, the Ballon d'Or award honours the male player deemed to have performed the best over the previous year, based on voting by football journalists. [본문으로]
44. side ; [명사] 17. SPORTS TEAM | [C] (英) (스포츠) 팀 [본문으로]
45. squad ; 2. (스포츠에서) 선수단 [본문으로]
46. roster ; 2. (근무가 가능한) 직원 명단; (팀의) 선수 명단 ;; 미국식 [|rɑ:stə(r)] 영국식 [|rɒstə(r)] [본문으로]
47. form ; 6. BEING FIT/HEALTHY | [U] (英) 몸의 상태, 컨디션; 건강한 상태 ;; 7. PERFORMANCE | [U] 기량, 솜씨 [본문으로]
48. come into competition with ; ...와 경쟁하다. [본문으로]
49. dismal ; 1. 음침한, 음산한; <기분 등이> 우울한, 침울한 ((gloomy보다 딱딱한 말)) ;; 2. <경치 등이> 쓸쓸한, 황량한; <장소 등이> 무시무시한, 기분 나쁜 ;; 3. (구어) 비참한, 참담한 [본문으로]
50. a narrow victory ; 간신히 이긴 승리 [본문으로]
51. on the eve of ; …전야에, 직전에 [본문으로]
52. forecaster ; 예측하는 사람, (특히) 기상 요원[통보관] [본문으로]
53. retain ; 1. 보존하다, 유지하다, 보류하다(continue to hold, keep), 보유하다, 지니다(keep in possession). [본문으로]
54. produce forecasts ; 예측하다 [본문으로]
55. methodology ; [C , U] (pl. -ies) (격식) 방법론 [본문으로]
56. boffin ; [명사] (英 비격식) (특히 연구를 하는) 과학자 ;; 미국식 [|bɑ:fən] 영국식 [|bɒfɪn] [본문으로]
57. bearish ; [형용사] (금융) (주가가) 하락세[약세]인 ;; 참고 ; bullish [본문으로]
58. bettor ; 돈을 거는 사람, 내기를 하는 사람 [본문으로]
59. price in ; (transitive) To include (the costs of a possible future event, especially a negative one) in an estimation of the total value of something. [본문으로]
60. fabled ; 우화[전설]로 유명한; 신화적[전설적]인, 유명한; 실재하지 않는, 가공의. [본문으로]
61. composure ; 침착, 태연자약, (마음의) 평정(平靜)(calmness, tranquillity) ;; 미국식 [kəm|poʊƷə(r)] 영국식 [kəm|pəʊƷə(r)] [본문으로]
62. under pressure ; 3. 스트레스를 받는[압박감을 느끼는] [본문으로]
63. crop ; 2. (한 번에 계속해 나오는) 무리, 떼(group) ; 모임(collection) ; (성가신 일 등의) 발생, (문제 따위의)속출. ;; 문장내에서 -s없이 복수취급한 것을 확인 [본문으로]
64. mediocre ; [형용사] (못마땅함) 보통 밖에 안 되는, 썩 좋지는 않은 ;; 미국식 [|mi:di|oʊkər] 영국식 [|mi:di|əʊkə(r)] [본문으로]
65. taker ; 흐름상 "골잡이, 프리킥, 페널티킥 담당 선수" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
66. deficiency ; (pl. -ies), [~ (in/of sth)] 1. [U , C] (필수적인 것의) 결핍[부족](증) ;; 2. [C] 결점, 결함 [본문으로]
67. robust ; 1. 원기 왕성한, 팔팔한 ;; 2. (기구 등이) 튼튼한[강력한] ;; 4. 씩씩한, 투지 넘치는; 확신에 찬 [본문으로]
68. holding midfielder ; (축구) 수비형 미드필더. 수비 역할을 위해 수비수 앞에 배치된 미드필더를 말함. [본문으로]
69. hoover (sth) up ; 2. (비격식) (많은 양을) 독차지[독식]하다 [본문으로]
70. loose ; 9. BALL | (스포츠) (공이) 선수의 손[발]을 떠난 [본문으로]
71. weary ; (weari・er , weari・est) 1. (몹시) 지친, 피곤한 ;; 2. (문예체) 지치게[피곤하게] 하는 [본문으로]
72. counter attack ; 반격, 역습 [본문으로]
73. cunningly ; [부사] 교활[간사]하게. [본문으로]
74. exploit ; [타동사] 3. (최대한 잘) 활용하다 ;; 동사 [ɪk|splɔɪt] ;; 명사 [|eksplɔɪt] [본문으로]
75. concede ; 2. ~ sth (to sb) | ~ sb sth (특히 마지못해) 내주다[허락하다] ;; 3. (경기·토론 등에서) <득점·논점 등을> 허용하다, 양보하다 [본문으로]
76. prove ; 2. BE | (…임이) 드러나다[판명되다] [본문으로]
77. fruitless ; [형용사] 성과[결실] 없는 [본문으로]
78. speculative ; 2. 투기적인, 요행을 바라는; 불확실한, 위험한 [본문으로]
79. net ; [형용사] 1. 정미(正味)의, 순(純)…; (에누리 없는) 정(正)…(<반의어> gross); 정가(正價)의. ;; 2. 궁극의, 최종적인; 기본적인 [본문으로]
80. muster ; 1. (전투·검열·점호를 하려고 군대·승무원 등을) 소집하다, 불러 모으다(collect, call together). ;; 2. (일반적으로) 소집하다(summon together) ; (용기 따위를) 불러일으키다, 고무하다(up). [본문으로]
81. out of[beyond] one's depth ; 1. 키가 닿지 않는 곳에, 깊은 곳에 빠져서 ;; 2. 이해[능력]가 미치지 못하는, 어쩔 수 없는 [본문으로]
82. inability ; [U] 무능, 무력; …할 수 없음(disability) [본문으로]
83. scoring opportunity ; 득점 기회 [본문으로]
84. cohesion ; [U] 1. (격식) 화합, 결합 ;; 4. (정신적인) 결합, 단결 ;; 결합력, 단결력. ;; 참고 ; cohesion·less [본문으로]
85. forward ; [명사] [스포츠] (구기 종목의) 전위(前衛), 포워드; [pl.] 전위적 인물, 선봉 [본문으로]
86. By[In] contrast ; 1. (《앞 문장을 받아》) 그에 반해서, 그와 대조적으로 ;; 2. …와 대조하여, …에 비해서[with] [본문으로]
87. consistency ; 4. 양립함, 모순되지 않음, 조화[with]; (주의·언동 따위의) 일관성, 언행 일치[in, of]. [본문으로]
88. onlooker ; 방관자(bystander), 구경꾼(spectator) ;; (스쳐가는) 구경꾼, 방관자(looker-on); 관찰자, 목격자. [본문으로]
89. group stage ; (sports) the stage of a competition where teams in the same group play each other, usually before the knockout stage. ;; 흐름상 "(월드컵)조별 예선" [본문으로]
90. departure ; 2. (…에서의) 이탈, 벗어남; 배반; 변경[from]. ;; 흐름상 "탈락" [본문으로]
91. sluggish ; [형용사] 느릿느릿 움직이는; 부진한 [본문으로]
92. scrape through ; (특히 시험에) 간신히 합격[성공]하다 ;; 동의어 ; scrape through something ;; to succeed with difficulty in doing something, especially in passing an exam [본문으로]
93. a late winner ; (후반, 경기가 끝날즈음에 터진) 골 [본문으로]
94. draw ; [자동사] 9. (승부·시합이) 비기다 [본문으로]
95. injury time ; [명사] (축구・하키 등의 경기에서 선수 부상으로 뺏긴 시간을 감안한) 연장 시간, 로스 타임 [본문으로]
96. equalizer ; [명사] (주로 단수로) 특히 축구에서 동점골 [본문으로]
97. draw[tie] with ; ~와 비기다, 무승부로 끝나다 [본문으로]
98. on course for sth[to do sth] ; (이미 그렇게 되기 시작했으므로) ~할 것 같은 ;; likely to achieve or do something because you have already started to do it [본문으로]
99. qualify ; [자동사] 2. (스포츠) (…의) 예선을 통과하다[for]. [본문으로]
100. feature ; [자동사] 2. 중요 역할을 하다; (영화에) 주연하다; (신문 따위에) 대서 특필되다[in]. [본문으로]
101. ahead of ; 2. (시간적으로) …보다 빨리 ;; 3. (시합 등에서) …보다 앞선 [본문으로]
102. eventual ; [명사 앞에만 씀] 궁극[최종]적인 [본문으로]
103. qualifier ; 1. (대회의) 예선 통과자 ;; 2. 예선전, 예선 경기 [본문으로]
104. overall ; [부사] 1. 전부, 종합[전반]적으로 ;; 2. 대체로 (보아) [본문으로]
105. uncertainty ; 2. [U]부정(不定); 불확정; 불안, 미덥지 못함, (특히) 변하기 쉬운 일; [C]기대할 수 없는 일[것] [본문으로]
106. fancied ; [형용사] 3. 이길[잘 될] 듯 싶은 [본문으로]
107. indeed ; [부사] 1-a. [강조] 실로, 참으로, 실제로 [본문으로]
108. casualty ; (pl. -ties) 1. [pl.] (사고로 인한) 사상자; (전시의) 인적(人的) 손실; 사고병 ;; 2. ((일반적으로)) 피해자, 희생자 ;; 3. 참사, 불의의 재난, 사상(死傷)[상해] 사고 [본문으로]
109. calamity ; [C, U] (pl. -ties[-z]) (지진·홍수·화재 따위) 대재해; (실명·실청 따위) 재난; (일반적으로) 재앙, 재난, 재해; 큰 불행[불운], 비운, 고난. ;; 참고 ; disaster, misfortune, misery [본문으로]
110. powerhouse ; 3. 최강자, 최강 기구[단체, 기업]; 〈스포츠〉 최강 팀, A급 팀; 《비유적》 원동력. [본문으로]
111. consolation ; [U , C] 위안[위로](을 주는 사람・것) [본문으로]
112. grieving ; 비통해하는 [본문으로]