[Annotated] The American president is stirring up trouble in a volatile oil market

If he cannot arm-twist OPEC^[각주:1], he may unleash^[각주:2] America's Special Petroleum^[각주:3] Reserve^[각주:4]

It used to be said that America's shale producers were the new "swing factor^[각주:5]" in global oil markets. It turns out^[각주:6] that role is being taken by America's president. 

At a time when oil prices are at three-and-a-half-year highs, markets are being buffeted by^[각주:7] three countervailing forces unleashed by^[각주:8] President Donald Trump: his geopolitical agenda, particularly sanctions on Iran; his domestic political agenda, to lower American petrol prices before^[각주:9] the mid-term elections; and his looming trade war with^[각주:10] China. If he does not get his way^[각주:11], he may have a dangerous weapon up his sleeve^[각주:12] - America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). His meddling risks^[각주:13] making OPEC, the oil cartel^[각주:14] that is a focus of his wrath^[각주:15], look like a paragon of^[각주:16] predictability^[각주:17]. 

First, geopolitics. Despite an agreement late last month by Saudi-led OPEC and Russia to increase output by up to^[각주:18] 1m barrels a day (b/d), the price of Brent crude, a benchmark^[각주:19], has risen to above $77 a barrel. The proximate cause^[각주:20] this week was a brace of^[각주:21] supply outages in^[각주:22] Libya and Venezuela, both of which are in upheaval^[각주:23]. But adding fuel to the price rally is^[각주:24] the Trump administration's pressure on America's allies to cut oil imports from Iran to zero by November 4th, or face punishment for violating American sanctions^[각주:25]. This is more draconian than expected^[각주:26]. 

Brian Hook, an official at the State Department, said on July 2nd that more than 50 international firms, including energy ones, had agreed to pull out of Iran^[각주:27]. Though America may allow some countries - possibly Turkey^[각주:28], France and others - to reduce imports rather than cut them completely, it will not grant any waivers^[각주:29]. According to Clearview Energy Partners, a consultancy, "zero-barrel" response could see between 800,000 and 1.05m b/d of Iranian crude come off the market^[각주:30], with the squeeze starting in^[각주:31] September, 60 days of shipping time before^[각주:32] the sanctions kick in^[각주:33]. 

Mr Trump's Iranian ambitions are working against^[각주:34] his domestic political ones, however. Higher oil prices mean the price of gasoline in America is hovering around $3 a gallon^[각주:35], just as Americans take to the road for the holidays^[각주:36]. Those hurt most are drivers on lower incomes, who are more likely to vote Republican in the mid-term elections^[각주:37]. Though some Republican states produce oil, and will therefore benefit from higher prices, the president is clearly worried. In an interview on Fox TV aired on^[각주:38] July 1st, he ordered OPEC to stop manipulating the market, threatening some of its members with the loss of American protection if they do not. 

Mr Trump also tweeted on the need for Saudi Arabia to increase production by up to 2m b/d - an unusually open attempt by an American president to intervene in the nitty-gritty of^[각주:39] OPEC policy. The White House later backtracked from his claim that^[각주:40] Saudi Arabia had agreed to the request, but not without affirming that^[각주:41] the kingdom had 2m b/d of space capacity. 

Whether or not the Saudis can use that buffer^[각주:42] if a different matter. Energy Aspects, a consultancy, says that the highest level of production Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil giant, has tried out for any length of time is 11m b/d (it is about 10.3m b/d at the moment). But keeping production at that level for several months would damage its reservoirs^[각주:43]. Pumping 12m b/d would also take spare capacity in^[각주:44] the global oil market to uncharted lows^[각주:45], exposing it dangerously to supply shocks^[각주:46]. 

Complicating things is^[각주:47] the imminent risk of^[각주:48] an America-China trade war. China has threatened tariffs on American oil imports if retaliation^[각주:49] meets more retaliation^[각주:50]. And China may pay no heed to^[각주:51] American sanctions on Iran, which would further stoke tension between^[각주:52] the two^[각주:53]. 

These factors^[각주:54], some bullish for^[각주:55] oil prices, some bearish^[각주:56], may offset each other^[각주:57]. But they have already had the unfortunate consequence of putting Mr Trump alongside the rulers of Saudi Arabia and Russia in the driving seat of^[각주:58] global oil policy. Shale producers, who cannot respond to price signals anything like^[각주:59] quickly enough to please Mr Trump, are sidelined^[각주:60]. 

He may yet exert his influence^[각주:61] even more openly^[각주:62]. Analysts predict that if petrol prices continue to rise ahead of the mid-terms^[각주:63], Mr Trump will use a release of up to^[각주:64] 30m barrels from the SPR to flood the market^[각주:65]. That would be tantamount to^[각주:66] launching an oil war against^[각주:67] OPEC and Russia, in addition to the trade war^[각주:68]. But it cannot be ruled out^[각주:69]. 

1. arm-twist ; [타동사] …에 강한 압력을 가하다, 강요하다 [본문으로]
2. unleash ; [타동사][VN] ~ sth (on/upon sb/sth) (강력한 반응・감정 등을) 촉발시키다[불러일으키다] ;; …의 가죽끈을 끄르다[풀다]; …의 속박을 풀다, 해방하다, 자유롭게 하다 [본문으로]
3. petroleum ; [U] 석유 ;; 미국식 [pə|troʊliəm] 영국식 [pə|trəʊliəm] [본문으로]
4. reserve ; (pl. reserves[-z]) 1. (종종 reserves) (후일을 위한) 비축, 보관품, 예비품; [U]비축되어 있음, 축적, 적립; 보류, 예비, 보존[of]. [본문으로]
5. swing factor ; 결정변수 ;; An external force or forces (eg. person, event, place, thing, etc.) that contribute(s) to making a decision either one way or the other. [본문으로]
6. turn out ; 2. (부사·형용사와 함께 또는 how로 시작하는 의문문에 쓰여) (일·진행·결과가 특정 방식으로) 되다[되어 가다] ;; 4. …인 것으로 드러나다[밝혀지다] [본문으로]
7. buffet ; [타동사] 1. 치다, 때려눕히다; (파도·불운 따위가 사람을) 못살게 굴다, 희롱하다 ;; 미국∙영국 [|bʌfɪt] [본문으로]
8. countervail ; [타동사] (반대 작용으로) 무효로 만들다; 대항하다; 상쇄하다; 보상하다 ;; [자동사] 대항하다 ((against)); 상쇄하다 [본문으로]
9. petrol ; [U] 《英》가솔린(《美》gas, gasoline), 정유(精油); 《고어》석유. [본문으로]
10. looming ; [형용사] 어렴풋이 보이기 시작하는, 희미하게 나타나는; 기분 나쁜, 무시무시한 (menacing). [본문으로]
11. get one's (own) way ; 바라던 것을 얻다, 마음대로 하다 [본문으로]
12. have a plan[a card, something] up one's sleeve ; 유사시의 계획[최후 수단, 비법]이 있다 [본문으로]
13. meddling ; [U] (쓸데없는) 간섭, 참견 [본문으로]
14. cartel ; [명사] 카르텔, 기업 연합 ;; 미국식 [kɑ:r|tel] 영국식 [kɑ:|tel] [본문으로]
15. focus ; [명사] ; (pl. fo・cuses 또는 foci / 'fəUsaI ; 美 'foU- /) 1. [U , C] [주로 단수로] ~ (for/on sth) (관심・흥미 등의) 초점[중심]; 주목 [본문으로]
16. paragon ; 1. 모범, 본보기, 전형(典型), 귀감; 매우 우수한 사람, 걸물(傑物) ;; 전형(model of excellence) [본문으로]
17. predictability ; [명사] 예언[예보]할 수 있음, 예측 가능성. [본문으로]
18. output ; [U, C] 1. (경제) 생산, 산출; (일정 기간 중의) 생산량[고]; (광산 따위의) 산출량[물]. [본문으로]
19. benchmark ; 2. (판단의) 기준, 표준; 표준 가격 [본문으로]
20. proximate ; 3. (원인 따위가) 직접적인. [본문으로]
21. brace ; [명사] 7. 한 벌, 한 쌍(pair) ;; 10. [단·복수 동형] (개·토끼·엽조<獵鳥> 따위) 한 쌍(pair, couple) ; (권총) 한 쌍 ; (불량배) 2인조. [본문으로]
22. outage ; [U, C] 1. (전력·가스·물 따위의) 공급 정지, (특히) 정전. ;; 2. 공급 정지[정전] 기간. [본문으로]
23. upheaval ; 2. [UC] (비유) (사회 따위의) 대변동, 격변, 동란 ;; 미국·영국 [ʌp|hi:vl] [본문으로]
24. add fuel to sth ; ~을 부추지다, (좋지 않은 상황을) 더 악화시키다, 격하게 만들다 [본문으로]
25. face punishment for ; ~에 대한 처벌을 받다 [본문으로]
26. draconian ; [형용사] (격식) 법・처벌 등이 매우 엄격한, 가혹한 [본문으로]
27. pull out of ; ~에서 철수하다 ;; to take something out of somewhere by pulling [본문으로]
28. possibly ; 1. 아마, 혹시, 어쩌면 ;; 동의어 ; perhaps [본문으로]
29. waiver ; [명사] (법률) (권리 등의) 포기; 포기 서류 ;; 미국∙영국 [|weɪvə(r)] [본문으로]
30. come off ; 1. (~에서) 떨어지다 ;; 흐름상 "이란의 원유 시장과 손절하다" 정도의 의미로 보임 [본문으로]
31. squeeze ; 4. REDUCTION IN MONEY | [C] [주로 단수로] (재정적인) 압박[축소], 긴축 ;; 7. (경제적인) 압박, 긴축; (정부의) 금융 긴축 [본문으로]
32. shipping time ; 배송, 수송 기간 [본문으로]
33. kick in ; 1. 효과가 나타나기 시작하다 ;; to start to work or have an effect [본문으로]
34. work against ; …에 반대하다; …에 불리하게 되다 [본문으로]
35. hover around ; …주위를 맴돌다. ;; 가격, 가치에 대해 이야기 할 때도 사용하는 것을 확인 [본문으로]
36. take to the road ; 1. 여행을 떠나다 [본문으로]
37. mid-term election ; 미국에서 대통령의 임기 중에 실시되는 상·하 양원의원 및 공직자 선거. 미국에서는 대통령의 임기는 4년, 하원의원은 2년, 상원의원은 6년인데, 2년마다 3분의 1씩을 다시 선출한다. 따라서 대통령의 임기 중간에 상·하 양원의원이 새로 선출되게 되어 있어서 이런 명칭이 붙었다. 영어로는 'off-year election' 또는 'midterm election'이라고 한다 [본문으로]
38. air ; 4. RADIO/TV PROGRAMME | (특히 美) 방송하다; 방송되다 [본문으로]
39. nitty-gritty ; (속어) 본질(本質) ; 요소, 요점, 실제 문제(brass tacks) ; 엄연한 사실(harsh truth). ;; [the ~] (문제의) 핵심, (사물의) 본질, 기본적인 사실 [본문으로]
40. backtrack ; [자동사] 2. (압력을 받아 의견 등을) 철회하다 ;; 2. 손을 떼다, 발을 빼다; (입장·정책 따위를) 철회[취소]하다[from, on]. [본문으로]
41. affirm ; 1. 확언하다, 단언하다(state as a fact, aver)(opp. deny). ;; 4. (법률) 확인하다(confirm, ratify). [본문으로]
42. buffer ; 1. ~ (against sth) | ~ (between sth and sth) 완충제 (역할을 하는 것) [본문으로]
43. reservoir ; 2. (격식) (많은 양의) 비축[저장/보유] ;; 3. (전문 용어) (엔진・기계에서 오일 등을 보관하는) 저장소[통] ;; 미국식 [|rezərvwɑ:(r)] 영국식 [|rezəvwɑ:(r)] [본문으로]
44. spare capacity ; (경제) 유휴생산능력 [본문으로]
45. uncharted ; [주로 명사 앞에 씀] 1. 인적 미답의, 미지의, 잘 알지 못하는 [본문으로]
46. supply shock ; A supply shock is an event that suddenly increases or decreases the supply of a commodity or service, or of commodities and services in general. This sudden change affects the equilibrium price of the good or service or the economy's general price level. [본문으로]
47. complicate ; [타동사] [타동사][VN] (더) 복잡하게 만들다 [본문으로]
48. imminent ; [형용사] 특히 불쾌한 일이 금방이라도 닥칠 듯한, 목전의, 임박한 ;; 미국∙영국 [|ɪmɪnənt] [본문으로]
49. retaliation ; [U] ~ (against sb/sth) (for sth) 보복, 앙갚음 [본문으로]
50. meet ; 5. 직면[대항]하다, 대처하다; …와 회전[대전]하다 [본문으로]
51. pay no heed to ; ~에 주의하다, 돌보지 않다 [본문으로]
52. tension ; 1. [U , C] [주로 복수로] ~ (between A and B) (사람들 사이의) 긴장 상태 ;; 2. [C , U] ~ (between A and B) (필요・이해의 차이로 인한) 긴장[갈등] ;; 3. [U] (심리적인) 긴장[불안] [본문으로]
53. stoke ; 2. ~ sth (up) (감정을) 더 부추기다[돋우다] ;; 3. (증오심 따위를) 불타게 하다, 일게 하다. [본문으로]
54. factor ; 1. [C] 요인, 인자 ;; 3. [C] (증가・감소의) 양[비율] ;; 4. [C] (측정도를 나타낸) 지수 [본문으로]
55. bullish ; 1. 황소 같은; 완고한; 우둔한 ;; 2. [증권] 강세의, 오름세의(opp. bearish); 낙관적인 [본문으로]
56. bearish ; 곰 같은; 난폭한(rough); [증권] 약세의, 내림 시세의(opp. bullish) ;; 미국식 [|berɪʃ] 영국식 [|beərɪʃ] [본문으로]
57. offset ; 1. …을 차감 계산하다, 상쇄하다; …을 보충하다, 벌충하다. ;; 2. (장점으로) 〔단점〕을 보완하다. [본문으로]
58. in the driving seat of ; managing or controlling something, for example a business [본문으로]
59. price signal ; (economics) A sign, attached to a commodity and concerning its price, that is intended to increase demand for it [본문으로]
60. sideline ; [vn], [주로 수동태로] 2. 열외로 취급하다 [본문으로]
61. exert ; 1. (권력・영향력을) 가하다[행사하다] [본문으로]
62. openly ; 공공연하게(publicly); 터놓고, 숨김없이, 솔직히(frankly) [본문으로]
63. ahead of ; 2. (시간적으로) …보다 빨리 [본문으로]
64. release ; [명사] 5. (식료·물자 따위의) 방출. [본문으로]
65. flood the market ; offer for sale large quantities of a product, often at a low price [본문으로]
66. tantamount to ; [형용사] ~ to sth (격식) (나쁜 효과가) ~와 마찬가지의[~에 상당하는] ;; 미국·영국 [|tӕntəmaʊnt] [본문으로]
67. launch ; [vn] 1. (특히 조직적인 일을[에]) 시작[개시/착수]하다 [본문으로]
68. in addition to ; …에 더하여, …일 뿐 아니라 ;; (~에) 덧붙여, 게다가 [본문으로]
69. be ruled out ; 제외(명<名>)되다. [본문으로]