티스토리 뷰
[Annotated] North Korea has brought America and China closer
af334 2017. 10. 1. 16:46Next it will push them apart 1
Murderous 2, thin-skinned 3 and in possession of 4 nuclear weapons, the North Korean, Kim Jong Un, has one good deed to 5 his name: he has united America and China. Max Baucus, America's ambassador to Beijing until January 2017, recalls the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, privately expressing "disgust" at 6 Mr Kim's reckless pursuit of 7 8 nukes and missiles to carry them to other continents. Mr Xi's frustration with 9 North Korea's hereditary despot 10 stands out as 11 12 "the strongest statement that I have ever heard Xi make", says Mr Baucus. China has never sounded as closely aligned with 13 14 America when it comes to using sanctions and diplomatic pressure, in a last-ditch bid to change 15how 16Mr Kim calculates his regime's interests 17.
Breaking a long-standing taboo about 18imagining the Kim regime's collapse, a well-connected 19Chinese academic 20, Jia Qingguo, was allowed to publish an essay in September suggesting that China, America and South Korea should discuss such contingencies as 21refugee flows and which country's troops 22should secure loose nukes in a post-collapse 23North Korea. Donald Trump hailed 24China's role in getting tougher North Korea sanctions through the UN Security Council by unanimous vote 25. After months of discreet arm-twisting 26 by 27American Treasury officials with the power to levy huge fines 28 29, or exclude them from American markets, Chinese banks are shutting off finance to 30North Koreans.
Yet the two powers are still capable of blaming each other. Both claim that a nuclear-free Korean peninsula is their highest priority for that region. But American officials have long accused China of placing still more value on stability in North Korea, and thus approving any level of sanctions on the rogue regime 31 short of those painful enough to actually work, starting with a cut-off of 32 oil and other energy supplies 33.
China, in turn 34, declares that America is disingenuous to say that its dearest wish 35 is 36a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, when in truth 37it is most worried about American national security - explaining why successive presidents from George H.W. Bush onwards 38have focused not just on the Kim dynasty's pursuit of nuclear weapons, but on its development of missiles that could carry those weapons to American soil 39. Nationalist hardliners accuse America of exaggerating 40the North Korean threat to pursue its real goal, namely corralling 41 42China. Other Chinese officials do not go that far, but even the most internationalist argue that sanctions alone cannot solve the Korean crisis. They chide America for refusing to offer the sort of concessions 43 that might conceivably 44 induce the Kim regime to 45 change course 46 47, such as a wholesale scaling-back of 48 American military forces in the region 49 and of exercises with 50South Korean and Japanese allies.
Unfortunately for relations between the world's two biggest economies, China will hate the next steps that America is likely to take on 51 North Korea. Evan Medeiros, until 2015 the senior director for 52 Asia in Barack Obama's National Security Council 53, says that when the Chinese accuse America of refusing to engage in talks with the regime 54, this is largely "posturing 55". 56But behind it lies a truth, that "sanctions won't stop North Korea". When battling the proliferation of 57 the deadliest weapons 58 59, sanctions are always in a race with technology, says Mr Medeiros, now with the Eurasia Group 60, a consultancy 61. "Kim Jong Un is close to grasping the brass ring 62. We have probably lost the race and need to think about deterrence 63." This could include deploying new missiles and missile-defence systems in South Korea and Japan, and perhaps another aircraft-carrier 64in the region.
The South Korean defence minister 65, Song Young-moo, told his country's parliament 66that he had asked America to consider the return of tactical nuclear weapons to 67the Korean peninsula. Tactical nuclear weapons - often meaning smaller, battlefield weapons or air-dropped 68bombs not covered by strategic arms treaties 69 70- were withdrawn from 71South Korea two years later. At the height of cold-war tensions in 72 73the late 1960s and 1970s, there were over 700 tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, in missiles, bombs and even nuclear landmines 74, notes Joel Wit of the US-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. 75
Conventional forces will need to be built up 76if American security guarantees to allies are to remain credible 77, says Mr Wit. Japan and South Korea must debate their need for everything from anti-missile systems to more offensive weapons, such as missiles and advanced aircraft. That challenges Chinese policy, which is to press America and South Korea to limit the deployment of even defensive weapons, such as the THAAD anti-missile system. THAAD's powerful radars, installed south-east of Seoul, can see deep into China.
The Senate passed a defence-spending bill in 78September with $8.5bn to strengthen missile-defence systems. Some of the money would buy 14 new ground-based anti-missile interceptors at 79Fort Greely, Alaska, taking the arsenal there to 8058.
Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, a Republican member of the Senate foreign-relations committee 81, reports "a lot of appetite" in Congress for funding 82 83anti-missile defences. With North Korea seeking the means to hit 84American territory with nukes 85, it would be "malpractice 86" not to do so, says Mr Barrasso. A member of the Republican leadership in 87the Senate, he would like to "turn down the heat a bit" on some of the pugnacious 88 tweets from 89Mr Trump aimed at North Korea. Strikingly 90, there is no war party in 91Congress banging the drum for unilateral action 92 93. Mr Barrasso sees the Senate stressing work with 94allies.
Still, cold-war theories of deterrence are being dusted off 95, with such jargon as 96"second-strike capability" 97 - the certainty that 98a country attacked with nuclear weapons can retaliate massively 99 100. Douglas Paal, a senior Asia hand in 101the Reagan White House and both Bush administrations, approves of 102the Senate plan to place more interceptors in Alaska, in part to gain leverage over 103China. "We need to layer up 104more missile defence. China needs to see that their second-strike capacity is really deteriorating 105, which hurts them." Mr Paal, who runs the Asia programme at the Carnegie Endowment for 106 International Peace 107, a think-tank, is in frequent contact with envoys of 108governments including China's and, recently, North Korea's. He concedes the need for talks with 109the Kim regime, alongside containment 110 111and deterrence, but notes that in previous negotiations, North Korea wanted an end to American defence alliances in Asia and to America's troop presence in 112South Korea: "So we can't get there."
A policy of containment would not just strain relations with 113China as new American weapons bristled in 114Asia. Global non-proliferation regimes would be tested 115, not least because a North Korea facing crippling sanctions 116might see selling nuclear technology as a lifeline 117. Perhaps China's greatest nightmare involves Japan feeling compelled to 118 build nuclear weapons (it could quickly develop the technology). A Chinese build-up of 119warheads 120in response 121could result in India and then Pakistan increasing their stockpiles 122. The unity fostered by 123 124Mr Kim may thus prove short-lived 125. If he builds the arsenal he wants, China and America will be sincere in their shared dismay 126. But if America then prepares to contain him, a whole new 127Sino-American 128stand-off 129may begin.
- push apart ; 떠밀다 ;; push ; 3. AFFECT STH | [타동사][VN + adv. / prep.] (특정 수준・상태가 되도록) 밀고 나가다[영향을 미치다] [본문으로]
- murderous ; [형용사] 사람을 죽이려 드는[죽일 것 같은] [본문으로]
- thin-skinned ; 1. (비판・모욕에) 민감한 2. (과일이) 껍질이 얇은 [본문으로]
- in possession of ; …을 소유하여 [본문으로]
- deed ; 1. (격식 문예체) (보통 아주 좋거나 아주 나쁜) 행위[행동] [본문으로]
- disgust at ; …에 대한 혐오감. [본문으로]
- reckless ; [형용사] 무모한, 신중하지 못한; 난폭한 [본문으로]
- pursuit ; 1. [U] ~ of sth 추구, (원하는 것을) 좇음[찾음] [본문으로]
- frustration with ; …에 대한 좌절, 불만 [본문으로]
- hereditary ; 2. (상습권에 따라) 세습되는 [본문으로]
- despot ; [명사] 폭군 [본문으로]
- stand out as sth ; (~로서) 두드러지다 [본문으로]
- sound ; 1. GIVE IMPRESSION | (말을 듣거나 글을 읽어보니) …인 것 같다[…처럼 들리다] [본문으로]
- align oneself with ; ~을 공개적으로 지지하다 [본문으로]
- last-ditch ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) (성공할 가망이 많지 않은데) 최후의 시도로 하는, 필사적인 [본문으로]
- bid ; 3. [특히 신문에서] ~ (for sth) | ~ (to do sth) 노력 [본문으로]
- regime ; 1. 정권 [본문으로]
- long-standing ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) 오래된 [본문으로]
- well-connected ; [형용사] (격식) 사람이 연줄이 든든한, 유력한 친지가 많은 ;; 흐름상 "분야에 전문적인" 정도의 의미로 이해 [본문으로]
- academic ; [명사] 교수 [본문으로]
- contingency ; [명사] pl. -ies 만일의 사태 [본문으로]
- troop ; 1. [pl.] troops (특히 대규모의) 병력, 군대 [본문으로]
- loose nukes ; [명사] 유출된[관리가 엉성한] 핵 무기[물질]. [본문으로]
- hail ; 1. [주로 수동태로] ~ sb/sth (as) sth (특히 신문 등에서 아주 훌륭하거나 특별한 것으로) 묘사하다[일컫다] [본문으로]
- unanimous vote ; 만장일치 표결 ;; vote를 불가산으로 활용한것을 확인 [본문으로]
- discreet ; [형용사] 신중한, 조심스러운 [본문으로]
- arm-twisting ; [명사] (비격식) 강압 [본문으로]
- American Treasury officials ; 미 재무부 관리 [본문으로]
- levy ; [타동사][VN] (lev・ies , levy・ing , lev・ied , lev・ied) ~ sth (on sb/sth) (세금 등을) 부과[징수]하다 ;; 미국∙영국 [|levi] [본문으로]
- finance ;1. [U] ~ (for sth) (사업・프로젝트 등의) 재원[자금] [본문으로]
- approve ; 2. [타동사][VN] 승인하다 [본문으로]
- rogue ; [명사 앞에만 씀] 1. (동물이) 무리를 떠나 사는 (그래서 위험할 수도 있는) 2. 독자적으로 행동하는 (흔히 해를 끼치기도 하는) [본문으로]
- cut-off ; 1. 중단, 차단 [본문으로]
- in turn ; 차례차례, 번갈아, 돌아가며, 교대로 ; (하나씩) one by one, one after another[the other] [본문으로]
- disingenuous ; [형용사] (대개 명사 앞에는 안 씀) (격식) 솔직하지 못한(특히 아는 것을 모른다고 하는) ;; 참고 ingenuous ;; 미국·영국 [|dɪsɪn|dƷenjuəs] [본문으로]
- one's dearest wish ; 간절한 소원, 절실한 염원 [본문으로]
- when in truth ; 사실은 [본문으로]
- onwards ;(美 주로 on・ward / 'ɑ:nwəd ; 美 'ɑːnwərd ; 'ɔːn- /) 1. from… onwards (특정 시간부터) 계속 [본문으로]
- soil ; 2. (문예체) 국가, 국토, 땅 [본문으로]
- hardliner ; [명사] 강경 노선의 사람, 강경파 [본문으로]
- namely ; [부사] 즉, 다시 말해 [본문으로]
- coral ; (-ll- , 美 또한 -l-), [vn] 1. (말이나 소를) 울타리 안으로 몰아넣다 2. (사람들을 한 곳으로) 모으다 [본문으로]
- chide ; [동사] ~ sb (for sth/for doing sth) (격식) 꾸짖다, 책망하다 [본문으로]
- offer concessions ; 양보하다, 양해해주다 ;; concession ; 1. [C , U] (언쟁을 끝내거나 상황을 개선하기 위한) 양보[양해] ;; 참고 concede [본문으로]
- conceivably ; [부사] 생각할 수 있는 바로는, 상상컨대 [본문으로]
- induce ; 1. [타동사][VN to inf] (격식) 설득하다, 유도하다 [본문으로]
- course ; 3. DIRECTION | [U , C] [주로 단수로] (배나 비행기의) 항로 4. DIRECTION | [C] [주로 단수로] (태도나 생각의) 방향[방침] ;; course를 불가산으로 활용한 것을 확인 [본문으로]
- wholesale ; 2. (특히 안 좋은 것이) 대량의, 다수의, 대규모의 [본문으로]
- scale back ; 축소하다 ;; [VERB] to reduce or make a reduction in the level of activity, extent, numbers, etc [본문으로]
- exercise ; 6. FOR SOLDIERS | [C] [주로 복수로] (군대의) 훈련 [본문으로]
- take on ; [동사] 떠맡다; 고용하다; 태우다; 떠들어대다, 흥분하다; 인기를 얻다; …와 대전[대결]하다. ;; 동의어 undertake, assume; employ, hire; carry on board; become excited; become popular; [본문으로]
- senior director ; (군사) 선임관제사 [본문으로]
- National Security Council ; [the ~] 국가 안전 보장 회의 ((略 NSC)) [본문으로]
- engage in ; ~에 관여[참여]하다/~를 ~에 관여[참여]하게 하다 [본문으로]
- largely ; [부사] 크게, 대체로, 주로 [본문으로]
- posturing ; [U , C] (못마땅함) 가식 [본문으로]
- battle ; ~ (with/against sb/sth) (for sth) 싸우다, 투쟁하다 [본문으로]
- proliferation ; [U , sing.] 급증, 확산 [본문으로]
- deadly ; (dead・lier , dead・li・est), (more deadly와 deadliest가 일반적으로 쓰이는 형태이다. most deadly도 쓰이기는 한다.) 1. 생명을 앗아가는[앗아갈], 치명적인 [본문으로]
- the Eurasia Group ; EG는 국제정치의 리스크를 연구하고 자문하는 세계적인 업체로서, 1998년 초기 구소련과 동유럽에 초점을 두고 창설되었으며, 현재에는 전세계를 범위로 하여 분석하고 있다. 아프리카, 아시아, 유라시아, 유럽, 라틴 아메리카, 중동, 북아메리카의 거버넌스와 정치, 규제, 경제지표, 사회 트렌드 및 발전, 안보, 국제와 지역 관계에 관하여 연구한다. [본문으로]
- consultancy ; (pl. -ies) 1. [C] (전문적인 조언을 제공하는) 자문 회사 [본문으로]
- brass ring ; (미·속어) 큰 돈벌이[성공]의 기회, 성공할 기회; (힘들여 얻은) 성공 [본문으로]
- deterrence ; [U] 1. 제지, 저지 2. 전쟁 억제(력) [본문으로]
- aircraft-carrier ; [명사] 항공모함 [본문으로]
- defence minister ; 국방부 장관 [본문으로]
- parliament ; (참고: Houses of Parliament , hung) 1. [C , sing.+ sing./pl. v.] 의회, 국회 [본문으로]
- tactical nuclear weapon ; 전술 핵무기 ((略 TNW)) [본문으로]
- airdrop ; [VERB] 1. drop (such things) by parachute. [본문으로]
- Strategic Arms ; 전략 무기 : 전쟁 수행에 큰 영향을 미치는 군사 기지 산업 시설 등의목표를 공격할 때 쓰는 무기. [본문으로]
- strategic arms treaties ; 흐름상 "(군사) strategic arms reduction talks (START)" 을 의미하는 것으로 이해 [본문으로]
- withdraw ; (with・drew / -'druː / with・drawn / -'drOːn /) 1. ~ (sb/sth) (from sth) (뒤로) 물러나다, 철수하다; 빼내다, 철수시키다 [본문으로]
- at the height of ; …의 절정에, …이 한창일 때에 [본문으로]
- tension ; 1. [U , C] [주로 복수로] ~ (between A and B) (사람들 사이의) 긴장 상태 [본문으로]
- landmine ; [명사] 지뢰 [본문으로]
- note Joel Wit ~ ; 흐름상 의미 강조, 문장 구조상 편의를 위해 도치시킨것으로 이해 [본문으로]
- conventional forces ; (핵무기가 없는) 재래식 병력 [본문으로]
- credible ; 1. 믿을[신뢰할] 수 있는 [본문으로]
- defence-spending ; 방위비, 국방비 [본문으로]
- anti-missile interceptor ; 흐름상 "요격용 미사일" 을 의미 [본문으로]
- arsenal ; 1. (집합적) 무기 [본문으로]
- the Senate Foreign Relations Committee ; [the ~] 상원 외교 위원회 ((略 SFRC)) [본문으로]
- appetite ; 2. [C] ~ (for sth) 욕구 [본문으로]
- fund ; [타동사][VN] 자금[기금]을 대다 [본문으로]
- means ; (pl. means), (참고: end n. , fair adj. , way n.) 1. [C] ~ (of doing sth/of sth) 수단, 방법, 방도 ;; means 는 단,복수 둘다 사용가능 [본문으로]
- nuke ; [명사] 핵무기 [본문으로]
- malpractice ; [U , C] (법률) (전문 직종에서의) 위법[부정/배임] 행위, (의사의) 의료 과실[사고] [본문으로]
- leadership ; 3. [C+sing./pl. v.] (조직의) 지도[대표]부 [본문으로]
- turn (sth) down ; (소리·온도 등을) 낮추다 [본문으로]
- pugnacious ; [형용사] (격식) 싸우기 좋아하는, 호전[공격]적인 ;; 미국∙영국 [pʌg|neɪʃəs] [본문으로]
- strikingly ; [부사] 두드러지게, 눈에 띄게 [본문으로]
- war party ; 호전파 정당 [본문으로]
- bang[beat] the drum for ; (~을) 열렬히 성원하다 [본문으로]
- unilateral action ; [명사] 일방적인 행동 [본문으로]
- stress ; 1. EMPHASIZE | 강조하다 [본문으로]
- dust off ; [동사] (다시 쓰기 위해) 방치했던 물건을 오랜만에 꺼내다; (야구 투수가) 빈볼을 던지다; 때려 눕히다. ;; 흐름상 "이전에 쓰던 이론, 용어를 다시 쓰다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- jargon ; [U] (흔히 못마땅함) (특정 분야의 전문・특수) 용어 [본문으로]
- second-strike capability ; (군사) 제2격 능력 ;; second strike (군사) ▶적의 공격에 대한 반격의 개념으로 통상 핵 전쟁에서 사용하는 용어 [본문으로]
- certainty ; 2. [U] 확실성 [본문으로]
- retaliate ; [자동사][V] ~ (against sb/sth) | ~ (by doing sth/with sth) 보복하다, 앙갚음하다 [본문으로]
- massively ; [부사] 육중하게, 단단하게, 엄청나게, 굉장히, 과도하게, 대대적으로, 상당히 [본문으로]
- hand ; 4-a. [보통 형용사와 함께] 수완[기량]이 …한 사람; 특수한 수완[기량]을 가진 사람, 전문가 [본문으로]
- approve of ; ~을 승인하다, 찬성하다 [본문으로]
- leverage ; [U] 1. (격식) 영향력 [본문으로]
- layer ; [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] 켜켜로[층층이/겹겹이] 놓다[쌓다] [본문으로]
- deteriorate ; [자동사][V] ~ (into sth) 악화되다, 더 나빠지다 [본문으로]
- endowment ; 1. [C , U] (학교 등의 기관에 주는) 기부(금) 2. [C] (주로 복수로 격식) (타고난) 자질[재능] ;; 미국∙영국 [ɪn|daʊmənt] [본문으로]
- the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ; [명사] 카네기 국제 평화 기금(A. Carnegie가 설립한 국제 평화 연구 및 출판 지원 기금). [본문으로]
- in contact with ; 과 접촉, 연락하는, [본문으로]
- concede ; (참고: concession) 1. ~ sth (to sb) | ~ sb sth (무엇이 옳거나 논리적임을) 인정하다[수긍하다] [본문으로]
- alongside ; [전치사] 2. …와 함께; …와 동시에 [본문으로]
- containment ; [U], (격식) 2. (다른 국가의 무력에 대한) 견제 [본문으로]
- troop presence ; 군병력의 주둔 [본문으로]
- strain ; 3. STRETCH TO LIMIT | [타동사][VN] 한계에 이르게 하다, 무리를 주다 ;; strain relations ; 관계를 긴장시키다. [본문으로]
- bristle ;[v] 1. ~ (with sth) (at sth) (~에 화가 나서) 발끈하다 ;; 흐름상 "무기가 잔뜩 배치 되다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
- nonproliferation regime ; (핵무기) 비확산체제 [본문으로]
- crippling ; [형용사] (기능을 상실할 정도로) 심하게 손상[부상]한 [본문으로]
- lifeline ; 1. (물에 빠진 사람 등에게 던져 주는) 구명 밧줄 2. (잠수부 등의 몸에 매는) 생명줄 3. (사람이 의지하는) 생명선 [본문으로]
- feel compelled to ; ~해야한다는 느낌, 생각, 기분이 들다. [본문으로]
- build-up ; 1. [sing., U] (어느 정도의 기간에 걸친) 증가 [본문으로]
- warhead ; [명사] (미사일의) 탄두 [본문으로]
- in response ; 이에 대응하여 [본문으로]
- stockpile ; (많은) 비축량 [본문으로]
- unity ; 4. [sing.] (격식) 통일체, 개체 [본문으로]
- foster ; 1. [타동사][VN] 조성하다, 발전시키다 [본문으로]
- short-lived ; [형용사] 오래가지 못하는, 단명하는 [본문으로]
- dismay ; [U] (충격을 받은 뒤의) 실망, 경악 [본문으로]
- contain ; 3. (좋지 않은 일을) 방지하다[억제하다] [본문으로]
- Sino- ; (명사・형용사에서) <‘중국’을 뜻함> ; 미국식 [|saɪnoʊ] 영국식 [|saɪnəʊ] [본문으로]
- stand-off ; [명사] ~ (between A and B) (회담 등의) 교착 상태 [본문으로]