티스토리 뷰

But does it play fair[각주:1]?


If Donald Trump had slapped punitive tariffs[각주:2] on[각주:3] all Chinese exports to America, as he promised, he would have started a trade war[각주:4]. Fortunately, the president hesitated, partly[각주:5] because he wants China's help in thwarting[각주:6] North Korea's nuclear ambitions. But that is not the end of the story. Tensions over China's industrial[각주:7] might now threaten the architecture of the global economy[각주:8]. America's trade representative[각주:9] this week called China an "unprecedented" threat that cannot be tamed by existing trade rules. The European Union, worried by a spate of[각주:10] Chinese acquisitions[각주:11], is drafting[각주:12] stricter rules on foreign investment[각주:13]. And, all the while[각주:14], China's strategy for modernizing its economy[각주:15] is adding further strain[각주:16]


At the heart of these tensions[각주:17] is one simple, overwhelming fact[각주:18]: firms around the world face ever more intense competition from[각주:19] their Chinese rivals. China is not the first country to industrialize[각주:20], but none has ever made the leap[각주:21] so rapidly and on such a monumental scale[각주:22]. Little more than a decade ago Chinese boom towns[각주:23] churned out[각주:24] zips, socks and cigarette lighters. Today the country is at the global frontier of[각주:25] new technology in everything from mobile payments to driverless cars.


Even as China's achievements inspire awe[각주:26], there is growing concern that the world will be dominated by an economy that does not play fair. Business feel threatened. Governments that have seen Brexit and the election of Mr Trump, worry about the effects of job losses and shrinking[각주:27] technological leadership. Yet if the outcome is to be good, they must all think clearly about the real nature of China's challenge. 


Go, in three dimensions[각주:28]

Undoubtedly[각주:29], China has form[각주:30]. It kept its currency[각주:31] cheap for years, boosting exporters[각주:32]; it finances[각주:33] its state-owned giants with cheap credit[각주:34]; and its cyber-spies steal secrets. Yet depictions of corporate China as just an undemocratic[각주:35], state-run monster, thieving[각주:36] and cheating to get ahead[각주:37], are crude[각주:38] and out of date. Home-grown[각주:39] innovation is flourishing[각주:40]. The innovations are mainly private, not the many heads of a single creature called China Inc. To separate hype from[각주:41] reality, think of Chinese competition as having three dimensions: illegal, intense and unfair. Each needs a different response


First, consider illegality[각주:42]. The best example is the blatant[각주:43] theft of intellectual property[각주:44] that makes for[각주:45] the most sensational headlines[각주:46], such as the charges laid in 2014 against five Chinese military officers for hacking into[각주:47] American nuclear, solar and metals firms. The good news is such crimes are declining[각주:48]. An agreement with America in 2015 seemingly[각주:49] led to a marked drop in[각주:50] Chinese hacks of foreign companies and, as Chinese firms produce more of value, they are themselves demanding better intellectual-property protection at home


The second dimension - intense but legal competition - is far more important. Chinese firms have proven that they can make good products for less. Consumer prices[각주:51] for televisions, adjusted for quality, fell by more than 90% in the 15 years after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). China's share of global exports has risen to 14%, the highest any country has reached since America in 1968. That may fall as China loses its grip on low-value industries such as textiles. But it is gaining a new reputation in high tech. If data are the new oil, China's tech industry has vast reserves in the information generated by the hundreds of millions of its people online - unprotected by privacy rules. Whether you make cars in Germany, semiconductors in America or robots in Japan, the chances are that[각주:52] in future some of your fiercest rivals will be Chinese. 


Last, and hardest to deal with, is unfair competition: sharp practice[각주:53] that breaks no global rules. The government demands that firms give away technology[각주:54] as the cost of admission to[각주:55] China's vast market. Foreign firms have been targeted in the biggest of China's anti-monopoly[각주:56] cases. The government restricts access to[각주:57] lucrative sectors, while financing assaults on those same industries abroad. Such behavior is dangerous precisely because today's rules offer no redress[각주:58]


Don't get angry. Get even[각주:59] 

Sorting Chinese competition into[각주:60] these categories helps calibrate the response[각주:61]. Blatant[각주:62] illegality is the most straightforward. Governments must prosecute and seek redress, whether through the courts or the WTO. Firms can better protect themselves against cyber-thieves - from China and elsewhere


Though it is politically hard, the best response to intense competition is to welcome it. Consumers will gain from lower costs and faster innovation. Misguided attempts to[각주:63] hold back[각주:64] the tide[각주:65] would not only lose those potential gains but might also blow up the world trading system, with catastrophic[각주:66] results. Rather than try to stop the loss of jobs, governments should provide retraining and decent safety net[각주:67]. Both companies and governments need to spend more on education and research. Six years ago Barack Obama said America faced a new "Sputnik moment"[각주:68] in China's rise. Since then not much extra has been devoted to research, training and infrastructure. 


The hardest category is competition that is unfair, but not illegal. One approach is to coax China into behaving[각주:69] better by acting collectively[각주:70]. America, Europe and big Asian countries could jointly[각주:71] publish information about economic harm from China's policies - as they did by sharing details about overcapacity in[각주:72] the steel industry[각주:73], nudging China into[각주:74] cutting its excesses[각주:75]. They should demand reciprocity[각주:76], requiring China to give foreign companies the same access that its own firms enjoy in their markets. Governments need to review their policies for screening investments from[각주:77] China so that they can block genuine threats to national security (though only those). And they should also require that investors with state backing report this in full[각주:78], and punish those hiding their true identity


Much of the responsibility for putting this right falls on[각주:79] China. It may ask why it should hold itself back. After all, 19th-century Germany and America grew rich behind subsidies[각주:80] and tariff walls[각주:81]; Britain and Japan were bullies. Yet, having done so well out of the global commercial ecosystem, China should recognize that it has become one of its custodians[각주:82]. Abuse it - illegally or by overburdening it[각주:83] - and it will break


  1. play fair ; 공정[부정]하게 행동하다, 떳떳하게 굴다[속이다]; 정당하게[부정하게] 승부하다 ;; [반의어] play foul, false [본문으로]
  2. punitive tariff ; [명사] 보복 관세. ;; 동의어 ; retaliatory tariff. [본문으로]
  3. slap ... on ; ~(의 가격)에 ~을 때려 붙이다[갑자기 올리다] [본문으로]
  4. trade war ; [명사] 무역 전쟁. [본문으로]
  5. partly ; [부사] 부분적으로, 어느 정도 [본문으로]
  6. thwart ; [타동사][VN] [흔히 수동태로] ~ sth | ~ sb (in sth) (계획 등을) 좌절시키다 [본문으로]
  7. industrial ; 1 a :one that is employed in industry b :a company engaged in industrial production or service 2 :a stock or bond issued by an industrial corporation or enterprise ;; 명사로 활용한것을 확인 [본문으로]
  8. architecture ; 3. [C , U] (컴퓨터) 아키텍처, 컴퓨터 시스템의 구성 ;; 컴퓨터 분야 뿐만 아니라 일반적으로 "구성"에 관한 부분을 말할때 사용함을 확인 [본문으로]
  9. U.S. Trade Representative ; [the ~] 미국 통상 대표[대표부] ((대통령 직속의 행정 기관인 미국 통상 대표부를 통할하는 각료로 대사와 동격)) [본문으로]
  10. spate ; [명사] (주로 단수로) ~ of sth (보통 불쾌한 일의) 빈발 [본문으로]
  11. acquisition ; 3. [C , U] (상업) (기업) 인수, 매입(한 물건) [본문으로]
  12. draft ; (draught 특히 英) 1. 초안[원고]을 작성하다 [본문으로]
  13. foreign investment ; 해외[대외] 투자 [본문으로]
  14. all the while ; 그동안 죽, 내내, 시종 [본문으로]
  15. modernize ; 1. [타동사][VN] (시스템・방법 등을) 현대화하다 [본문으로]
  16. strain ; 1. WORRY/ANXIETY | [U , C] 부담, 중압[압박](감) [본문으로]
  17. tension ; 1. [U , C] [주로 복수로] ~ (between A and B) (사람들 사이의) 긴장 상태 [본문으로]
  18. overwhelming ; [형용사] 압도적인, 너무도 강력한[엄청난], 저항[대응]하기 힘든 [본문으로]
  19. intense competition ; 심한, 심각한 경쟁. [본문으로]
  20. industrialize ; [동사] 산업[공업]화하다[되다] [본문으로]
  21. leap ; (참고: quantum leap) 1. 높이[멀리]뛰기, 도약 [본문으로]
  22. monumental scale ; 기념비적 규모 [본문으로]
  23. boom town ; [명사] (호경기로 급격히 발전하는) 신흥 도시 [본문으로]
  24. churn out ; [동사] 대량 생산하다; 잇달아 내다. ;; 동의어 ; mass-produce mechanically. [본문으로]
  25. frontier ; 1. [C] ~ (between A and B) | ~ (with sth) (英) 국경[경계] (지역) ;; 흐름상 "최첨단"을 의미 [본문으로]
  26. inspire awe ; 경외심, 두려움을 일으키다 [본문으로]
  27. shrink ; 2. (규모・양이[을]) 줄어들다[줄어들게 하다] ;; 참고 ; shrunken [본문으로]
  28. dimension ; 3. 차원; 관점 [본문으로]
  29. undoubtedly ; [부사] 의심할 여지없이; 확실히 [본문으로]
  30. form ; 2. WAY STH IS/LOOKS | [C , U] (무엇이 드러나는 특정한) 방식[형태] [본문으로]
  31. currency ; (pl. -ies) 1. [C , U] 통화 ;; 참고 ; hard currency [본문으로]
  32. exporter ; [명사] 수출업자[회사/국가] [본문으로]
  33. finance ; [타동사][VN] 자금[재원]을 대다 [본문으로]
  34. cheap credit ; 흐름상 "저리로 신용거래를 하는 것" 으로 이해 [본문으로]
  35. undemocratic ; [형용사] 비민주적인 [본문으로]
  36. thieving ; [U] (비격식) 도둑질, 절도 (행위) [본문으로]
  37. get ahead ; (~를) 앞서다, 출세하다, 성공하다 [본문으로]
  38. crude ; 3. (사람들이나 행동이) 막된, 상스러운 [본문으로]
  39. home-grown ; 2. (제작・훈련・교육을) 자기 지방[국내]에서 한 [본문으로]
  40. flourishing ; [형용사] 무성한; 번영하는, 융성한, 성대한 [본문으로]
  41. hype ; [U] (비격식 못마땅함) (대대적이고 과장된) 광고[선전] [본문으로]
  42. illegality ; (pl. -ies), (참고: legality) 1. [U] 불법 [본문으로]
  43. blatant ; [형용사] (못마땅함) 나쁜 행동이 노골적인, 뻔한 [본문으로]
  44. intellectual property ; [U] (법률) 지적 재산 [본문으로]
  45. make for ; …에 기여하다(=lead to), ~쪽으로 가다[향하다], …위해 준비하다. [본문으로]
  46. sensational ; 2. (못마땅함) (신문 등이) 선정적인(사실・사건 등을 실제보다 충격적으로 다루어 흥미를 유도하려는) [본문으로]
  47. hack into ; …에 침투하다. [본문으로]
  48. declining ; [형용사] 기우는, 쇠퇴하는 [본문으로]
  49. seemingly ; [부사] 외견상으로, 겉보기에는 [본문으로]
  50. marked ; 1. 뚜렷한 [본문으로]
  51. consumer price ; 소비자 가격 [본문으로]
  52. (the) chances are (that) ; it is likely (that) [본문으로]
  53. sharp practice ; [명사] 교활한 행위, 사기. [본문으로]
  54. give away ; [동사] 거저 주다; (결혼식에서 신부를) 신랑에게 인도하다; 나누어 주다; (좋은 기회를) 저버리다, 양보하다; 폭로하다, 누설하다. [본문으로]
  55. admission to ; …에의 입장[입회, 입학]. [본문으로]
  56. anti-monopoly ; [형용사] 독점에 반대하는; 독점 금지의 [본문으로]
  57. restrict ; 3. ~ sth (to sb) (규칙・법으로) 제한[통제]하다 [본문으로]
  58. redress ; [U] ~ (for/against sth) (격식) 보상, 배상 [본문으로]
  59. get even (with sb) ; (~에게 해를 입은 만큼) 되갚아 주다 [본문으로]
  60. sort ... into ; …로 분류하다. [본문으로]
  61. calibrate ; [타동사][VN] (전문 용어) (계기 등에) 눈금을 매기다 ;; If you calibrate an instrument or tool, you mark or adjust it so that you can use it to measure something accurately. ;; 미국∙영국 [|kӕlɪbreɪt] [본문으로]
  62. blatant ; [형용사] (못마땅함) 나쁜 행동이 노골적인, 뻔한 [본문으로]
  63. misguided ; [형용사] 잘못 이해한[판단한] [본문으로]
  64. hold back ; hold back ; [동사] 기다리다; 저지[억제]하다; 비밀로 하다. [본문으로]
  65. tide ; 2. [C] [주로 단수로] (여론의) 흐름 [본문으로]
  66. catastrophic ; [형용사] 대변동[큰 재앙]의; 파멸의, 비극적인; 대단원의 ;; 미국식 [kæ̀təstrɑ́fik(əl)], 영국식 [-strɔ́f-] [본문으로]
  67. safety net ; 1. (사회적인) 안전망 [본문으로]
  68. Sputnik moment ; The moment when a country or a society realizes that it needs to catch up with apparent technological and scientific developments made by some other country or countries by increasing its investment into education, innovative research and development, etc. [본문으로]
  69. coax into ; 달래어 …하게 하다. [본문으로]
  70. collectively ; [부사] 집합적으로, 총괄하여; [문법] 집합 명사적으로 [본문으로]
  71. jointly ; [부사] 공동[연대적]으로 [본문으로]
  72. overcapacity ; [U , sing.] (상업) 생산 과잉 [본문으로]
  73. steel industry ; [명사] 철강 산업 [본문으로]
  74. nudge ... into ; 2. [타동사][VN + adv. / prep.] (…을 특정 방향으로) 살살[조금씩] 밀다[몰고 가다] [본문으로]
  75. excess ; 4. [pl.] excesses 도를 넘는 행위(월권・방종・폭행 등) [본문으로]
  76. reciprocity ; [명사] (격식) 호혜(互惠) ;; 미국식 [|resɪ|prɑ:səti] 영국식 [|resɪ|prɒsəti] [본문으로]
  77. screen ; [vn] 1. HIDE STH/SB | ~ sth/sb (from sth/sb) 가리다, 차단[보호]하다 [본문으로]
  78. in full ; 전부[빠짐없이] [본문으로]
  79. fall on ; 2. ~의 책임[몫]이다 [본문으로]
  80. subsidy ; [C , U] (pl. -ies) (국가・기관이 제공하는) 보조금[장려금] [본문으로]
  81. tariff wall ; [명사] 관세 장벽. [본문으로]
  82. custodian ; 1. 관리인 [본문으로]
  83. overburden ; [타동사][VN] [주로 수동태로] ~ sb/sth (with sth) 과중한 부담을 주다 [본문으로]
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