[Annotated] Will democracy in the Philippines go the way of Thailand?

Rodrigo Duterte bears many similarities to^[각주:1] Thaksin Shinawatra

When Filipinos attempt to explain the political success of their tough-guy president, Rodrigo Duterte, they tend to point to^[각주:2] local precursors^[각주:3]. Joseph Estrada, a former matinée idol^[각주:4] who had often played Robin Hood types, rose to the presidency^[각주:5] by promising to be hard on bad guys and good to the poor. And then there is Ferdinand Marcos, who cultivated an image as^[각주:6] a war hero to win election before assuming dictatorial^[각주:7] powers^[각주:8], and whose reputation Mr Duterte is doing his best to restore.

Both these comparisons^[각주:9] make Mr Duterte’s knack of^[각주:10] casting himself as^[각주:11] a friend of the people while giving short shrift to^[각주:12] the niceties of^[각주:13] democracy seem like a function of^[각주:14] Philippine politics, in which populists occasionally attempt to stir up resentment against^[각주:15] the hereditary^[각주:16] caste of^[각주:17] landowners^[각주:18] who dominate government and the economy. After all^[각주:19], despite regular elections and much talk of reform, the 40 best-connected families still control about three-quarters of the Philippines’ wealth. Poverty is equally entrenched^[각주:20], as a visit to^[각주:21] Manila’s slums^[각주:22] or the southern, partly^[각주:23] Muslim island of Mindanao makes clear^[각주:24].

But the Philippines is not the only country in South-East Asia with an entrenched establishment presiding over^[각주:25] profound^[각주:26] inequality. Most are blighted by^[각주:27] single-party rule, or by a political churn^[각주:28] which does not seem to have much impact on local power structures^[각주:29]. Thailand, with a monarchy^[각주:30] manipulated by the elites, is a case in point^[각주:31]. The purpose of 12 military coups^[각주:32], two in the past 12 years, has been, as Michael Vatikiotis argues in “Blood and Silk”, a perceptive new book^[각주:33] on the region, to maintain “an imposing^[각주:34] if^[각주:35] arcane^[각주:36] edifice of power^[각주:37] and [cultivate] a conservative mindset^[각주:38] that has prevented the devolution of power^[각주:39] and autonomy to^[각주:40] ordinary people.”

Indeed, Mr Duterte may have more in common with^[각주:41] Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister of Thailand now living in self-imposed^[각주:42] exile^[각주:43], than with any Filipino predecessor, for all that^[각주:44] Mr Duterte is foul-mouthed^[각주:45] and scruffy^[각주:46] where Mr Thaksin is silver-tongued^[각주:47] and bespoke^[각주:48]. Mr Thaksin swept to power in^[각주:49] 2001 by identifying himself with^[각주:50] the underdog^[각주:51], particularly the rural poor in the country’s north and north-east, his political base. To the alarm of^[각주:52] the establishment, which ousted him in^[각주:53] 2006 (it did the same eight years later to his sister after she was elected by a landslide^[각주:54]), Mr Thaksin appeared keen to supplant^[각주:55] the monarchy in the people’s favours^[각주:56]. Though Mr Duterte, whose power base is in Davao city in Mindanao, is not challenging a system as cosmic as^[각주:57] the Thai monarchy, he has openly^[각주:58] confronted^[각주:59] the landed^[각주:60] and political elites^[각주:61]. He rails at^[각주:62] the “feudal state^[각주:63]” and “imperial” Manila. Even before he was elected, the talk at glitzy^[각주:64] dinner parties was of how to depose him^[각주:65].

Both men claim to speak for the poor^[각주:66]. Mr Duterte lambasts^[각주:67] the Catholic church as being “full of shit” for supposedly^[각주:68] caring more about what it receives from the rich than what it does for the less fortunate. Both have been drawn to^[각주:69] leftists^[각주:70]. When Mr Thaksin was a police officer in the northern city of Chiang Mai, he got to know survivors of the army’s massacre of^[각주:71] students in Bangkok in 1976; they had fled to join a communist insurgency in^[각주:72] the northern hills. Some became senior advisers as he rose to power^[각주:73]. Similarly^[각주:74], Mr Duterte struck up relationships with^[각주:75] leftists while a prosecutor in^[각주:76] Davao. His cabinet secretary^[각주:77], Leoncio Evasco, is a former Marxist priest and communist guerrilla.

After taking office^[각주:78], Mr Duterte agreed a truce with^[각주:79] the Philippines’ communist insurgents^[각주:80], though it is now fraying^[각주:81]. He has been sucked into^[각주:82] intractable^[각주:83] Muslim insurgencies in the south. In particular, the army is trying to retake the city of^[각주:84] Marawi, which groups claiming allegiance to Islamic State suddenly seized in May. Mr Thaksin, too, took a similar no-nonsense^[각주:85] approach to an Islamist insurgency in southern Thailand.

Neither man sought power^[각주:86] in order to respect the rule of law^[각주:87]. The unwitting^[각주:88] model for Mr Duterte’s ghastly war on^[각주:89] drugs is Mr Thaksin’s similar war against methamphetamine use in^[각주:90] 2003. In that, more than 2,800 died in three months at the hands of police^[각주:91] and vigilantes^[각주:92], and officials were threatened with punishment for failing to meet targets for^[각주:93] seizures and arrests. In Mr Duterte’s war, more than 7,000 Filipinos have died in summary executions by^[각주:94] police and hitmen^[각주:95]. Amnesty International^[각주:96] describes it as a murder economy. Many victims are small-time drug users^[각주:97], or entirely innocent. This week Mr Duterte cut the annual budget of the country’s Commission on Human Rights^[각주:98], a rare voice criticising the killings^[각주:99], to $20.

Waging war on the poor

It is, in effect^[각주:100], a war on the poor—so much for^[각주:101] Mr Duterte’s claim to speak for them. Mr Thaksin was a more credible^[각주:102] advocate^[각주:103]: his introduction of cheap health care for all was groundbreaking^[각주:104]. Perhaps Mr Duterte still intends things of substance. He seems to have talked to the communists about sweeping reforms^[각주:105], including the wholesale transfer of^[각주:106] land to peasants^[각주:107].

To Mr Vatikiotis, who caught up with^[각주:108] the exile sipping white wine in Montenegro, it was clear that Mr Thaksin’s own narrow interests^[각주:109] in pursuit of power, including furthering^[각주:110] his multibillion-dollar^[각주:111] businesses, trumped^[각주:112] any real concern for the fate of followers taking to the streets^[각주:113]—and being shot—in his support. Even the sudden flight abroad in August of his sister^[각주:114], Yingluck Shinawatra, who was facing a controversial court case relating to her time as prime minister, might not spell the end of^[각주:115] the Shinawatras, whose ambitions, and pockets, are deep.

As for Mr Duterte, he must know the oligarchy^[각주:116] might challenge him if they feel threatened. He has reinforced his political base in Davao, with his daughter and son in prominent positions. Some suspect he might in future use the martial law^[각주:117] which he has declared in Mindanao to build an impregnable^[각주:118] power base^[각주:119]. In the Philippines as in Thailand, the chief challenge to the old order^[각주:120] is not full-blooded^[각주:121] democracy, but populism.

1. bear (a) similarity [본문으로]
2. point to ; (이유로) ~을 들먹이다, 가리키다; 암시하다. ;; 동의어 ; show the direction; suggest. [본문으로]
3. precursor ; [명사] ~ (of/to sth) (격식) 선도자(격인 사람・사물) ;; US [pri:|kɜ:rsə(r)] UK [pri:|kɜ:sə(r)] [본문으로]
4. matinee idol ; [명사] (구식) 여자들에게 인기 있는 배우 ;; US [|mӕtn|eɪ] UK [|mӕtɪneɪ] [본문으로]
5. rise to ; 1. (예상 밖의 상황·문제 등에 직면하여) 능력을 발휘하다 [본문으로]
6. cultivate ; 4. (말・행동 방식 등을) 기르다[함양하다] [본문으로]
7. dictatorial ; (못마땅함) 1. 독재(자)의, 독재적인 [본문으로]
8. assume ; 2. [타동사][VN] (격식) (권력・책임을) 맡다 [본문으로]
9. comparisons ; 비교점 ;; comparison ; 2. [C] ~ (of A and/to/with B) | ~ (between A and B) (A와 B의) 비교, (A를 B에) 비유 [본문으로]
10. knack ; [sing.] 1. ~ (of/for sth) | ~ (of/for doing sth) (타고난) 재주; (경험으로 익힌) 요령 [본문으로]
11. cast ; 9. DESCRIBE | [타동사][VN] ~ sb (as sth) | ~ sb (in sth) ~를 (~로) 묘사하다[제시하다] [본문으로]
12. give short shrift to ; …을 지체없이 처치하다[되다], 가차없이 다루다[다루어지다], 대수롭지 않게 여기다. 별로 관심을 받지 못하다 [본문으로]
13. nicety ; (pl. -ies), (격식) 1. [C] [주로 복수로] (특히 바른 행동・일 처리와 관련된) 세부 사항[세세한 차이점] 2. [U] (격식) 아주 자세함[꼼꼼함] [본문으로]
14. function ; 2. [C] 행사, 의식 [본문으로]
15. stir up resentment ; 노하게 하다. [본문으로]
16. hereditary ; 3. (상습권에 따라) 세습된 지위를 지닌 ;; US [hə|redɪteri] UK [hə|redɪtri] [본문으로]
17. caste ; 2. [C] (사회) 계층 [본문으로]
18. landowner ; [명사] (특히 많은 땅을 가진) 토지 소유자, 지주 [본문으로]
19. after all ; 1. (예상과는 달리) 결국에는 [본문으로]
20. entrench ; [타동사][VN] [주로 수동태로] (때로 못마땅함) (변경이 어렵도록) 단단히 자리 잡게 하다 [본문으로]
21. a visit to ; …로의 방문. [본문으로]
22. slum ; [명사] (도시) 빈민가, 슬럼 [본문으로]
23. partly ; [부사] 부분적으로, 어느 정도 [본문으로]
24. make clear[plain] ; 명료하게 하다 [본문으로]
25. preside over ; to lead or be in charge of a meeting, ceremony, etc. [본문으로]
26. profound ; (영향・느낌・경험 등이) 엄청난[깊은] [본문으로]
27. blight ; [타동사][VN] 망치다, 엉망으로 만들다 [본문으로]
28. churn ; any of various containers or machines similar in shape or action to a butter churn, as a device for mixing beverages. ;; 흐름상 "흐름이나 판도, 분위기를 마구 뒤석는 행위나 활동" 을 의미하는 것으로 이해 [본문으로]
29. power structure ; 1. 권력 구조[기구] 2. 권력 기구를 만드는 사람, 권력층의 실권자들 [본문으로]
30. monarchy ; 2. [C] 군주국 ;; 참고 ; republic [본문으로]
31. a case in point ; (논의 중인 문제·상황 등에) 딱 들어맞는 사례, 정례(適例). [본문으로]
32. military coup ; [명사] 군사 쿠데타 [본문으로]
33. perceptive ; 1. (호감) 통찰력[직관력] 있는 [본문으로]
34. imposing ; [형용사] 인상적인; 눈길을 끄는 [본문으로]
35. if ; 7. …더라도[…이긴 하지만](형용사 앞에 쓰여 대조를 나타내는 절을 도입 함) [본문으로]
36. arcane ; [형용사] (격식) 신비로운, 불가사의한, 아주 오래된 ;; US [ɑ:r|keɪn] UK [ɑ:|keɪn] [본문으로]
37. edifice ; [명사] (격식) (크고 인상적인) 건물; 조직, 체계 [본문으로]
38. mindset ; [명사] (흔히 바꾸기 힘든) 사고방식[태도] [본문으로]
39. devolution ; [U] (중앙에서 지방으로의) 권력 이양[이전] [본문으로]
40. autonomy ; [U] 1. 자치권 [본문으로]
41. have sth in common with ; have the same interests, characteristics or experience as somebody [본문으로]
42. self-imposed ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) 자진해서 하는, 스스로 맡아서 하는 [본문으로]
43. exile ; 1. [U , sing.] 망명; 추방, 유배 [본문으로]
44. for all that ; …에도 불구하고 [본문으로]
45. foul-mouthed ; [형용사] 입버릇이 더러운[상스러운], 야비한[상스러운, 모독적인] 말을 쓰는, 입이 건[험한]. [본문으로]
46. scruffy ; [형용사] scruff・ier , scruffi・est (비격식) 꾀죄죄한, 지저분한 [본문으로]
47. silver-tongued ; [형용사] (문어) 언변이 좋은, 유창한, 설득력이 있는 [본문으로]
48. bespoke ; [주로 명사 앞에 씀], (특히 英 격식) 1. (美 주로 'custom-|made) (제품이) (개인 주문에 따라) 맞춘 ;; 흐름상 "사람들이 듣기 좋은" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
49. sweep to power ; (선거에서) 압승을 거두다[거두게 하다] [본문으로]
50. identify ... with ; ~을 ~와 동일시하다 [본문으로]
51. underdog ; [명사] (이기거나 성공할 가능성이 적은) 약자[약체] [본문으로]
52. alarm ; 1. [U] 불안, 공포 [본문으로]
53. oust ; [타동사][VN] ~ sb (from sth/as sth) (일자리・권좌에서) 몰아내다[쫓아내다/축출하다] ;; US.UK [aʊst] [본문으로]
54. landslide ; 2. (선거에서) 압도적인 득표[승리] [본문으로]
55. supplant ; [타동사][VN] (격식) (특히 낡거나 구식이 된 것을) 대신[대체]하다 [본문으로]
56. favor ; 2. 친절한 행위, 은혜, 은전; 청, 부탁 [본문으로]
57. cosmic ; 2. 장대한, 어마어마한 [본문으로]
58. openly ; [부사] 터놓고, 드러내 놓고, 솔직하게 [본문으로]
59. confront ; 2. (문제나 곤란한 상황에) 맞서다 [본문으로]
60. landed ; [명사 앞에만 씀] 1. 많은 토지를 소유한 [본문으로]
61. political elite ; (정치학) <용어>정치엘리트 [본문으로]
62. rail at ; …을 욕하다, 탓하다 [본문으로]
63. feudal ; [형용사] (주로 명사 앞에 씀) 봉건적인, 봉건 제도의 [본문으로]
64. glitzy ; [형용사] 야한, 현란한, 화려한 [본문으로]
65. depose ; [타동사][VN] (특히 통치자를 권좌에서) 물러나게 하다[퇴위/폐위시키다] [본문으로]
66. speak for ; ~를 대변하다, 위해 말하다, …대신 말하다(=be a spokesperson for).;; to speak as a representative of (other people) [본문으로]
67. lambast ; [동사] (구어) …을 세게 치다, 매질하다; …을 엄하게 꾸짖다, 호되게 비난하다. [본문으로]
68. supposedly ; [부사] 추정상, 아마 [본문으로]
69. be drawn to ; ~에 끌리다 [본문으로]
70. leftist ; [명사] 좌파(인 사람) [본문으로]
71. massacre ; [C , U] 1. 대학살 [본문으로]
72. insurgency ; [U , C] (pl. -ies) 반란[내란] (시도) ;; 참고 ; counter-insurgency [본문으로]
73. rise to power ; 권세, 권력을 얻다 [본문으로]
74. similarly ; 2. 마찬가지로 [본문으로]
75. strike up ; (~와) (대화·관계 등을) 시작하다[트다] [본문으로]
76. prosecutor ; 2. 기소 검사 [본문으로]
77. cabinet secretary ; 내각 비서, 관방 장관 [본문으로]
78. take office ; 취임하다 ;; come into office, enter (into) office [본문으로]
79. truce ; [명사] 휴전 [본문으로]
80. insurgent ; [명사] (주로 복수로) (격식) 반란[내란]을 일으킨 사람 [본문으로]
81. fray ; 1. (천이[을]) 해어지다[해어지게 하다] ;; 흐름상 "형세가 예전만 못하다" 정도의 의미 [본문으로]
82. be sucked into ; (문제, 난관 따위에) 휘말리다, 빨려들어가다 [본문으로]
83. intractable ; [형용사] (격식) 문제・사람이 아주 다루기 힘든 [본문으로]
84. retake ; (re・took / -'tUk / , re・taken / -'teIkən /), [vn] 1. (특히 군대가) (도시 등을) 탈환하다 [본문으로]
85. no-nonsense ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) 간단명료한; 허튼짓을 하지 않는, 현실적인 [본문으로]
86. seek power ; 권력을 추구하다 [본문으로]
87. rule of law ; [the ~] 법(에 의한 지배), 법규(범) [본문으로]
88. unwitting ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) 자신도 모르는 [본문으로]
89. ghastly ; (ghast・lier , ghast・li・est) 1. (어떤 일이) 무시무시한, 섬뜩한 [본문으로]
90. methamphetamine ; [명사] (약학) 메탐페타민 ((각성제)) ;; US·UK [mèθæmfétəmì:n] [본문으로]
91. at the hands of ; ~의 손에 의해[~때문에] ;; 동의어 ; at somebody’s hands [본문으로]
92. vigilante ; [명사] (때로 못마땅함) 자경단의 단원 ;; US.UK [|vɪdƷɪ|lӕnti] [본문으로]
93. meet target ; 목표(수치)를 달성하다 [본문으로]
94. summary execution ; 즉결 처형. [본문으로]
95. hitman ; [명사] (비격식) 암살자, 청부 살인자 [본문으로]
96. Amnesty International ; [명사] 국제 사면 위원회 [본문으로]
97. small-time ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) (비격식 못마땅함) 흔히 범죄자가 시시한, 삼류의 ;; 참고 ; big time [본문으로]
98. Commission on Human Rights ; (기관·단체) 국제연합 인권위원회 [본문으로]
99. killing ; [명사] 살해, 살인 ;; 참고 ; mercy killing [본문으로]
100. in effect ; 사실상[실제로는] [본문으로]
101. so much for sth ; ~에 대해서는 그쯤 하기로 하고[그만해 두고] ;; used to show that you have finished talking about something [본문으로]
102. credible ; 1. 믿을[신뢰할] 수 있는 [본문으로]
103. advocate ; 1. ~ (of/for sth/sb) 옹호자, 지지자 ;; 참고 ; devil’s advocate [본문으로]
104. groundbreaking ; [형용사] (명사 앞에만 씀) 신기원을 이룬, 획기적인 [본문으로]
105. sweeping ; [형용사] 1. [주로 명사 앞에 씀] 전면적인 [본문으로]
106. wholesale ; 2. (특히 안 좋은 것이) 대량의, 다수의, 대규모의 [본문으로]
107. peasant ; . (특히 과거 또는 현대 빈곤 국가의) 소작농[소농] ;; US.UK [|peznt] [본문으로]
108. catch up with ; [동사] 따라가다, 따라잡다; 체포하다. [본문으로]
109. narrow interests ; 좁은 관심사 [본문으로]
110. further ; [타동사][VN] 발전[성공]시키다 [본문으로]
111. multibillion ; 수십억 [본문으로]
112. trump ; 2. (더 나은 말・행동으로 상대를) 이기다[능가하다] [본문으로]
113. take to the streets ; 요구를 내걸고 가두 시위에 나서다 [본문으로]
114. flight에 걸치는 of가 바로 오지 않고 in August 다음에 따라 붙은 것을 확인 [본문으로]
115. spell ; 4. [타동사][VN] ~ sth (for sb/sth) (보통 나쁜 결과를) 가져오다[의미하다] [본문으로]
116. oligarchy ; (pl. -ies) 1. [U] 과두제, 과두 정부 2. [C+sing./pl. v.] 과두제 집권층 3. [C] 과두제 국가 [본문으로]
117. martial law ; [U] 계엄령 [본문으로]
118. impregnable ; 2. 무적의; 확고한 [본문으로]
119. power base ; [명사] (정치인・정당의)세력 기반 [본문으로]
120. old order ; 구(舊)체제 [본문으로]
121. full-blooded ; [명사 앞에만 씀] 1. 전력을 다 한; 열렬한 [본문으로]