티스토리 뷰

After Brexit, it will be a lot harder


One question confronting Britain[각주:1] and the European Union is how to maintain foreign-policy[각주:2] and security co-operation after[각주:3] Brexit. Theresa May, Britain's prime minister, often notes that failure to find agreement would harm the security interests of[각주:4] both sides. On March 22nd that observation found a pointed form of[각주:5] expression at an EU summit in Brussels, following the recent nerve-agent attack on[각주:6] a Russian émigré[각주:7] and his daughter in Salisbury. After some agile[각주:8] British diplomacy[각주:9] the EU's 28 leaders issued a joint statement[각주:10] declaring that[각주:11] the only plausible explanation for[각주:12] the attack was that Russia was responsible for it


This language, tougher than Mrs May had dared to hope[각주:13], clears the way for[각주:14] further collective EU action[각주:15], including on beefing up[각주:16] defensive instruments against Russian hybrid warfare[각주:17], later this year. Nor was the European response limited to words. The EU's ambassador to Russia has been temporarily withdrawn to[각주:18] Brussels, and on March 26th several countries, possibly including France and Germany, are expected to announce that they are following the British example and expelling[각주:19] Russian diplomats[각주:20]. Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, reportedly[각주:21] asked her fellow leaders to state which of them would agree to do so[각주:22]


Mrs May, whose experience inside the EU over the past 18 months has largely been one of humiliation, can chalk this up as[각주:23] a diplomatic win[각주:24]. EU leaders jealously guard[각주:25] their foreign-policy prerogatives[각주:26] (which is one reason why some of the promises to expel Russian spies may vanish[각주:27] on contact with[각주:28] domestic reality). To obtain tough language and common diplomatic action looked far from inevitable earlier this week[각주:29]. "Russia is challenging the values we share as Europeans," declared the prime minister as she left the summit on March 23rd. "It is right that we are standing together in defence of those values[각주:30]." Boyko Borisov, Bulgaria's prime minister and no Russia hawk[각주:31], declared that: "Despite Brexit, the UK and EU showed they are one and the same."


On first glance Mrs May's success looks like one in the eye to Remainers who suggested that Brexit would leave Britain diplomatically isolated[각주:32]. It is true that on everyday business British influence inside the EU has dwindled almost to nothing[각주:33], much to the regret of traditional allies like the Dutch. But the summit demonstrated that Britain can still forge alliances[각주:34] and score diplomatic wins[각주:35] when it counts[각주:36] (especially welcome when its American ally looks increasingly unreliable). Contrast this with the experience after[각주:37] 2006, when Tony Blair's government was disappointed by the lukewarm support it received from[각주:38] its European allies over the Kremlin-sponsored poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko[각주:39], a Russian-born exile in London. 


Since then a lot has happened, including Russia's incursions into[각주:40] Ukraine and its support for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities in[각주:41] Syria. But if EU membership does not guarantee solidarity[각주:42], it certainly helps. The statement of March 22nd was agreed by the 28 leaders only after Mrs May had convened Mrs Merkel and Emmanuel Macron[각주:43], France's president, for a brief pre-dinner discussion[각주:44]. The trio[각주:45] issued a firm statement that prepared the ground for the subsequent debate[각주:46]. Over dinner[각주:47], concerns from countries that tend to be dovish on[각주:48] Russia were overcome in various ways; Greece and Cyprus, for instance, were softened up with the promise of[각주:49] a tough EU stance on[각주:50] Turkish naval incursions and the recent arrest of two Greek soldiers who had strayed across the border[각주:51]. At its best[각주:52], this is how matters are supposed to proceed inside the EU: leaders thrashing out differences[각주:53], balancing[각주:54] competing interests[각주:55] and prioritizing concerns before arriving at a common line


But consider whether the same result could be obtained after Brexit. Mrs May would not have been in Brussels to convene impromptu summits with[각주:56] her French and German counterparts[각주:57], let alone to[각주:58] make her case before all 28 leaders. British diplomats would have had no role in the multitude of[각주:59] decision-making[각주:60] groupings that[각주:61] constitute[각주:62] the inner[각주:63] workings of[각주:64] the EU, and would be unrepresented at[각주:65] ministerial meetings[각주:66]. The informal diplomatic treadmill[각주:67] would have to be worked with particular vigour[각주:68]. The prime minister would have to ask allies to engineer[각주:69] the sorts of diplomatic pirouettes that[각주:70] made statements such as these possible, and cross her fingers that[각주:71] they would deliver[각주:72]


It should be possible, one way or another, to keep Britain plugged in to[각주:73] the EU's decision-making machinery[각주:74] after it leaves. Among other things, its European allies want to maintain access to British terrorist databases and intelligence assessments that[각주:75] undergird much of the EU's sanctions policy[각주:76]. The negotiating guidelines for[각주:77] Britain's post-Brexit relationship with the EU, signed off by the remaining 27 leaders[각주:78] on the morning of March 23rd, call for[각주:79] "strong EU-UK co-operation" in foreign and security policy. So Britain will not be isolated after Brexit. But its government will find it much harder to conjure support from[각주:80] outside the tent


  1. confront ; [vn] 1. (문제나 힘든 상황이) 닥치다 ;; 2. (문제나 곤란한 상황에) 맞서다 ;; 3. (위험한 상황 등에) 정면으로 부딪치다[마주치다] [본문으로]
  2. foreign policy ; 외교 정책[방침] [본문으로]
  3. security cooperation ; 안보협력 [본문으로]
  4. security interest ; (법률) 선취득권, 담보권. [본문으로]
  5. pointed ; (more pointed; most pointed) 1. (끝이) 뾰족한, 날카로운. ;; 2. (말 따위가) 가시가 돋친, 신랄한; 정곡을 찌른, 적절한, 효과적인. ;; 3. (어느 목표를) 향한, 겨누어진; (특정인을) 빗대고 하는, 빈정대는. ;; 4. 두드러진, 뚜렷한; 명백[명확]한. [본문으로]
  6. nerve agent ; (군사용의) 신경계에 작용하는 물질, 신경 가스 ((따위)) [본문으로]
  7. emigre ; [명사] (불어에서) (보통 정치적 이유에 의한) 망명자 ;; 미국·영국 [|emɪgreɪ] [본문으로]
  8. agile ; 1. 날렵한, 민첩한 ;; 2. (생각이) 재빠른, 기민한 ;; 미국식 [|ӕdƷl] 영국식 [|ӕdƷaɪl] [본문으로]
  9. diplomacy ; [U], (참고: shuttle diplomacy) 1. (국가간의) 외교(술) ;; 2. (사람들 사이의) 사교 능력[외교 수완] [본문으로]
  10. joint statement ; [명사] 공동 성명. [본문으로]
  11. declare ; 1. 선언[선포/공표]하다 ;; 2. 언명하다, 분명히 말하다 [본문으로]
  12. plausible ; 1. (변명・해명・설명이) 타당한 것 같은, 이치에 맞는, 그럴듯한 ;; 2. (못마땅함) (사람이) (특히 남을 속일 때) 그럴듯하게 구는 [본문으로]
  13. dare to ; (Risk를 무릅쓰고) 과감히 ~ 하다 ;; 건방지게 …하다 [본문으로]
  14. clear ; [타동사] 1. 밝게[맑게] 하다, 청명하게[뚜렷하게] 하다 [본문으로]
  15. collective action ; (정치학) <용어>집합행위 ;; 집단 행동, 단체 행동 [본문으로]
  16. beef up ; [동사] 강화하다, 보강하다.;; 동의어 strengthen, increase. ;; to make something bigger, stronger, more interesting, etc. [본문으로]
  17. hybrid warfare ; 하이브리드 전투/전쟁* 전통적인 전투/전쟁방식과 사이버전, 정보전 등의 비정규전 방식이 섞인 전투/전쟁방식 ;; (neologism) Warfare that blends conventional warfare and irregular warfare (potentially including cyberwarfare and information warfare) — the full spectrum of conflict. [본문으로]
  18. be withdrawn to ; ~로 철수하다 [본문으로]
  19. expel ; (~led; ~·ling) 1. 내쫓다, 쫓아버리다, 구축하다; <해충 등을> 구제(驅除)하다 ((from)) ;; 2. 면직시키다(dismiss), 추방하다, 제명하다 ((from)) ;; ORIGIN Latin ;;「밖으로 밀어내다」의 뜻에서 [본문으로]
  20. diplomat ; 외교관(《英》(구식) diplomatist); 외교가, 외교에 능한 사람, 요령이 좋은 사람. [본문으로]
  21. reportedly ; [부사][문장수식] 들리는 바에 의하면, 소문에 의하면; 보도에 의하면. ;; (美) 전하는 바에 의하면(according to report). [본문으로]
  22. state ; 1. (정식으로) 말하다[쓰다], 진술[서술/언명]하다 ;; 2. [타동사][VN] [주로 수동태로] (특히 문서에) 명시하다 [본문으로]
  23. chalk up sth ; (비격식) (점수를) 얻다[따다], (우승·성공을) 기록하다 [본문으로]
  24. win ; (口)승리, 성공; (口)이익, 벌이, 상금; (경마에서) 1등, 1착 [본문으로]
  25. jealously ; 1. 시기하여, 질투하여. ;; 2. 방심하지 않고, 빈틈없이, 조심하여. [본문으로]
  26. prerogative ; 1. (a prerogative, the prerogative) (관직상의) 특권, 우선권; (군주의) 대권. ;; 2. (일반적으로) 특권, 특전. ;; 동의어 ; PRIVILEGE [본문으로]
  27. vanish ; 3. (희망·공포 등이) 없어지다, 사라지다(cease to exist, come to an end). [본문으로]
  28. on contact with ; ~와 맞닿다 [본문으로]
  29. earlier this week ; 금주 초, 이번주 초 [본문으로]
  30. stand together in defence of ; ~를 지키기 위해 뭉치다, 함께하다 [본문으로]
  31. hawk ; 2. (특히 정치인이, 군사적 해결책을 지지하는) 매파[강경파] [본문으로]
  32. diplomatically ; [부사] 외교상, 외교적으로, 외교적 수완을 가지고, 무안하지 않게, 세련되게 [본문으로]
  33. dwindle ; [자동사][V] ~ (away) (to sth) (점점) 줄어들다 [본문으로]
  34. forge an alliance ; 동맹을 맺다. [본문으로]
  35. score ; 6. SUCCEED | (성공 등을) 거두다[차지하다] [본문으로]
  36. count ; 4. MATTER | [자동사][V] [진행형으로는 쓰이지 않음] ~ (for sth) 중요하다 [본문으로]
  37. contrast ; 1. [타동사][VN] ~ (A and/with B) 대조하다, 대비시키다 ;; 2. [자동사][V] ~ (with sth) (뚜렷한) 대조[차이]를 보이다 [본문으로]
  38. lukewarm ; 1. <액체가> 미지근한 ;; 2. 마음이 내키지 않는(halfhearted), 미온적인, 열의가 없는, 냉담한, 적당히[되는대로] 해치우는 [본문으로]
  39. poisoning ; [U , C] 1. 중독, 음독 ;; 2. 독살, 독약으로 죽임[없앰] ;; 참고 ; blood poisoning, food poisoning [본문으로]
  40. incursion ; [~ (into sth)], (격식) 1. 급습 ;; 2. (특정 활동 영역에서의) 갑작스러운 등장 [본문으로]
  41. atrocity ; [C , U] (pl. -ies) [주로 복수로] (특히 전시의) 잔혹 행위 ;; 미국식 [ə|trɑ:səti] 영국식 [ə|trɒsəti] [본문으로]
  42. solidarity ; [U] 1. 단결, 결속; 연대 의식, (이해·목적 등의) 일치. ;; 동의어 ; UNION ;; 2. (단체 내·단체 간의) 연대 책임. [본문으로]
  43. convene ; (격식) 1. [타동사][VN] (회의 등을) 소집하다 ;; 2. [자동사][V] 회합하다 [본문으로]
  44. pre-dinner ; Occurring before or in preparation for dinner [본문으로]
  45. trio ; [명사] 3인조, 3개가 한 조로 된 것 ;; 참고 ; duo [본문으로]
  46. subsequent ; 1. (시간적으로) 뒤의, 그 이후의, (…) 직후의[to]. ;; 2. (위치·순서가) (바로) 다음의. [본문으로]
  47. over dinner ; 저녁식사동안, 저녁을 먹으면서, 저녁식사 내내 [본문으로]
  48. dovish ; 비둘기 같은; [구어] 비둘기파와 같은, 온건 평화파의(opp. hawkish) [본문으로]
  49. soften sb up ; 1. ~를 구워삶다 ;; 2. (적을) 약화시키다 [본문으로]
  50. stance on ; …에 대한 입장[태도]. [본문으로]
  51. stray ; 1. 길을 잃다(lose one's way) ; 일행에서 떨어져 처지다(from), 길을 잘못 들다(into). [본문으로]
  52. at one's best ; 가장 좋은 상태에서, 한창 때인. [본문으로]
  53. thrash out ; [동사] (해결책 따위를) 궁리[토의]하다, 철저히 검토하다; 털어놓다. ;; 동의어 ; thresh out, find an answer to by talking. [본문으로]
  54. balance ; 1. …의 평형[균형]을 잡다[맞추다]; 균형이 잡히게 하다 ;; 2. 비교하여 헤아리다, 가늠하다, 비교 평가하다 ;; 3. [회계] …의 대차를 대조하다; 청산하다; …의 수지를 계산하다 [본문으로]
  55. competing interests ; 경쟁 상대 [본문으로]
  56. impromptu ; 즉석에서[의], 준비 없이[는], 즉흥으로[의](extempore)(예고를 받지 못했거나 예기치 못한 연설자 등에 대하여 씀) [본문으로]
  57. counterpart ; (다른 장소나 상황에서 어떤 사람・사물과 동일한 지위나 기능을 갖는) 상대, 대응 관계에 있는 사람[것] [본문으로]
  58. let alone ; ~커녕[~은 고사하고] [본문으로]
  59. multitude ; [명사] (격식) 1. [C] ~ (of sth/sb) 아주 많은 수, 다수 [본문으로]
  60. decision-making ; [U] (단체나 조직 내의 중요 사항에 대한) 의사 결정 ;; (정책·원칙 따위를) 결정하는 ; 중요한[책임있는] 지위에 있는. [본문으로]
  61. grouping ; 1. [C] (흔히 더 큰 집단의 일부인) 그룹[집단] ;; 2. [U] 그룹으로 나누기, 분류 [본문으로]
  62. constitute ; 2. [V-N] [진행형으로는 쓰이지 않음] …을 구성하다[이루다] [본문으로]
  63. inner ; 안의, 안쪽의, 내면의(↔outer); 내면적인, 정신의(spiritual); 주관적인(subjective); (감정 따위) 내밀한 [본문으로]
  64. working ; [주로 복수로] 1. ~ (of sth) (기계・시스템・조직 등의) 작동[운용/작용] (방식) [본문으로]
  65. unrepresented ; [형용사] 대표 예시(例示) 되지 않은 ;; 대표되지 않은, 대표를 보내지 않은. [본문으로]
  66. ministerial meeting ; (외교통상) 각료회의 [본문으로]
  67. treadmill ; 1. 발로 밟아 돌리는 수레바퀴(옛날 감옥에서 징벌로 죄수가 밟아 돌렸음). ;; 2. 단조로운 일(monotonous toil). [본문으로]
  68. vigor (미) (vigour) ; [U] 1-a. 정력, 힘, 활력 ;; 1-b. 활기, 정신력, 기력, 원기 ;; 2. 힘 ((성장·운동 등에 나타난)), 생기, 세력, 활동력, 체력; 억셈 ((성격의)), 힘참, 박력 ((문체 등의)); 건전한 생장력 ((식물 등의)) ;; 3. (미) 구속력, 유효성, 법적 효력 [본문으로]
  69. engineer ; 1. (흔히 못마땅함) 수작을 부리다, (일을) 꾀하다[획책하다] ;; 2. 솜씨 있게 처리하다; 공작하다, 꾀하다 ((through)) [본문으로]
  70. pirouette ; [명사] 피루엣(특히 발레에서 한쪽 발로 서서 빠르게 도는 것) ;; 미국∙영국 [|pɪru|et] [본문으로]
  71. cross one's fingers ; (중지를 인지에 포개고) 기도하다, 행운을 빌다 [본문으로]
  72. deliver ; 3. KEEP PROMISE | ~ (on sth) (약속을) 지키다; (사람들의 기대대로 결과를) 내놓다[산출하다] [본문으로]
  73. plugged in[into] ; (미국·구어) …와 관계[연줄]가 있는, …에 밝아서, …을 깨달아서, 민감하여 [본문으로]
  74. machinery ; 3. [U , sing.] ~ (of sth) | ~ (for doing sth) 조직, 시스템, 기구 [본문으로]
  75. intelligence assessment ; Intelligence assessment is the development of behavior forecasts or recommended courses of action to the leadership of an organisation, based on wide ranges of available overt and covert information. Assessments develop in response to leadership declaration requirements to inform decision making. Assessment may be executed on behalf of a state, military or commercial organisation with ranges of information sources available to each. An intelligence assessment reviews available information and previous assessments for relevance and currency. Where there requires additional information, the analyst may direct some collection. [본문으로]
  76. undergird ; [타동사] …의 밑을 단단하게 묶다; 뒷받침하다 ;; 참고 ; support, strengthen [본문으로]
  77. negotiating ; [명사] 협상 (cf. negotiable 협상할 수 있는) [본문으로]
  78. sign sth off ; (서명을 하여) ~을 승인하다 ;; to give your formal approval to something, by signing your name [본문으로]
  79. call for ; 필요로 하다, 찾다, 촉구하다 [본문으로]
  80. conjure ; 4. [kəndƷ ú ər] 기원[탄원]하다, 간청하다(implore) [본문으로]
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